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New York Post
a few seconds ago
- New York Post
Psychologists predicted Trump's 2024 win before a single vote was cast — here's how they did it
Psychologists pulled off what political pundits and polls failed to do: predict the 2024 presidential election winner. Before a single ballot was cast in 2024, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania say they already predicted Donald Trump as the winner by tracking how optimistically each candidate explained bad news. While Trump's tone grew increasingly upbeat in the final weeks of the campaign, Kamala Harris's stayed flat. That shift correctly forecast not just that Trump would win, but by how much, according to a new study from Penn's Positive Psychology Center. 4 Trump's 2024 win was predicted weeks before the election by UPenn psychologists who tracked his rising optimism — a shift that set him apart from Kamala Harris, according to a new study. The Washington Post via Getty Images 'Starting around October 10 or so, Trump started to get significantly more optimistic,' Martin Seligman, the study's co-author and a professor of psychology at Penn, told The Post. 'By the 27th, it was a very large difference between Harris and Trump.' The team analyzed 1,389 explanations of negative events — such as war, crime, or economic hardship — from both candidates. Their dataset drew from speeches, interviews, and their only presidential debate, all delivered between early September and October 27. Each explanation was scored using the CAVE method, or Content Analysis of Verbatim Explanations, a positive psychology technique that analyzes how people explain events in speech or writing. Researchers used it to measure optimism by assessing whether causes were described as temporary, specific, and fixable. The narrower and solvable the cause, the more 'optimistic' the candidate's message. 4 Kamala Harris and Donald Trump spoke during a presidential debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. AFP via Getty Images Trump referenced more than 1,000 negative issues or events — over four times the number cited by Harris — often blaming outside forces while insisting the problems were fixable, usually by himself, the study found. Harris, by contrast, described deep, lasting threats with little sense of resolution, Seligman said. To see whether any other speech patterns could have predicted the results, the researchers also looked at emotional tone, focus on past vs. future and language about control or responsibility. None of them tracked with the outcome. Optimism stood alone. Seligman's earlier research found that more optimism predicted the winner in 9 out of the 10 elections between 1948 and 1984. 4 Before a single ballot was cast in 2024, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania say they already predicted Donald Trump as the winner by tracking how optimistically each candidate explained bad news. AFP via Getty Images After that, he advised both political parties on using optimism in their campaigns. But when candidates began scripting fake optimism, he shelved the method. He only revived it this cycle because Trump's off-the-cuff style allowed for real-time analysis. The researchers encrypted their prediction before Election Day and shared it with four outside verifiers, including Wall Street Journal reporters Lara Seligman — daughter of Martin Seligman — and Al Hunt, University of Washington political scientist Dan Chirot, and Hope College psychologist Dave Myers, before publishing the results after the race. 4 'Starting around October 10 or so, Trump started to get significantly more optimistic,' Martin Seligman, the study's co-author and a professor of psychology at Penn, told The Post. 'By the 27th, it was a very large difference between Harris and Trump.' Getty Images 'We're the only people who predicted a Trump election, as far as I know,' Seligman said. A separate forecasting model, based on economic conditions and presidential approval ratings, was developed by Cornell University professor Peter Enns and also correctly predicted Trump's win in all 50 states. The findings suggest voters respond more favorably to optimistic candidates who present problems as fixable rather than systemic — and that Trump's tendency to 'go off script' gave researchers an authentic glimpse of his true mindset, Seligman said. 'When optimism is genuine, I think there's a lot of reason to believe that the American public wants optimism and wants hope,' he said. 'It speaks to the general optimistic slant of American history.'
The Hill
a few seconds ago
- The Hill
Florida Republican on ‘silly' Epstein files controversy: ‘Release whatever you got'
Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-Fla.) weighed in on the 'silly' saga around the files of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, encouraging the Trump administration to release 'whatever you go.' 'I was elected to work, and right now, because of a dead pedophile, Congress is at impasse. We've got paralysis. I've always been a big advocate in public service of full transparency. If the documents are there, release whatever you got,' Patronis said during his Friday appearance on NewsNation's 'The Hill.' Patronis, who represents Florida's 1st congressional district, said he appreciates President Trump putting 'pressure' on Attorney General Pam Bondi to release the grand jury testimony, although he added it is 'kind of silly that we're talking about a dead pedophile that is literally from the grave controlling Congress.' Last week, The Justice Department (DOJ) requested the grand jury transcripts from the Epstein probe to be unsealed. U.S. District Judge Robin Rosenberg declined the request to unseal them on Wednesday. The Trump administration is looking to move on from the Epstein fervor, as the MAGA base has shown outrage over the lack of transparency around the so-called client list and other files —disappointment that surged after the FBI and DOJ's joint memo from earlier this month reaffirmed that Epstein died by suicide in 2019 in jail while awaiting trial. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche met with British socialite and convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell on Thursday and Friday, talking for over nine hours with Epstein's close associate. On Friday, Trump indicated that he has not ruled out a pardon for Maxwell, who is appealing her case to the Supreme Court. 'I'm allowed to do it but it's something I have not thought about,' he said. Patronis, in the Friday interview, said a potential pardon for Maxwell is ultimately up to the president. 'I think a pardon is an incredible gift, and that is for to be rewarded. I don't know if you give a pardon to somebody who helped facilitate the allegations of child pornography, sex crimes, abuse,' Patronis said. 'So again, I think you're going to give me the grounds why she should be even in this discussion.' 'But I mean, if she was a patsy and there's documentation to prove it, then, yeah, this is the president's discretion,' the Florida Republican added.
Newsweek
a minute ago
- Newsweek
Donald Trump's Disapproval Rating 'Stuck'
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Donald Trump's approval rating is "stuck," according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by Quantus Insights between July 21 and 23 among 1,123 registered voters, showed that Trump's approval rating stands at 47 percent, while 50 percent disapprove. That is relatively unchanged from the previous poll conducted earlier this month, which put Trump's approval rating at 48 percent, with 50 percent disapproving. Every poll conducted by Quantus Insights since early April has put Trump's approval rating between 47 and 48 percent, while his disapproval rating has stayed between 48 and 50 percent. "For a president who thrives on momentum, the static nature of these numbers is a signal: the base is holding, but the middle isn't moving," Quantus pollster Jaon Corley wrote. The poll shows that the ceiling that is forming among Trump's supporters is being defined by sharp and widening demographic splits—by gender, race, education, and geography—that limit Trump's reach even as his base remains intensely loyal. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House, Friday, July 25, 2025, in Washington. President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House, Friday, July 25, 2025, in Washington. Alex Brandon/AP But according to Democratic pollster Matt McDermott, this could be a problem for the Republican Party heading into the 2026 midterms. "You don't win elections by doubling down on your base while bleeding swing voters," he told Newsweek. A Firm Republican Backbone Among Republican voters, Trump remains overwhelmingly popular. Eighty-seven percent of Republicans approve of his performance, including 91 percent of white Republican men and 91 percent of white Republican women, virtually unchanged from the July 14—16 wave, when approval stood at 90 percent among Republicans overall. His approval is also strong among white noncollege voters (46 percent), rural residents (49 percent), and white men overall (56 percent), many of whom formed the backbone of his 2024 electoral coalition. In particular, rural white males give Trump 54 percent approval, with just 46 percent disapproving, reinforcing the president's solid hold on the white working-class male vote. Cracks Emerge Among Women and Younger Voters By contrast, Trump is struggling with key swing constituencies. Among women, his net approval is -10 points (43 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove), and the gender gap remains stark. While 52 percent of men approve of his job performance, just 43 percent of women do—a nine-point gap that has remained consistent since mid-July. Younger voters also continue to show deep dissatisfaction. Just 46 percent of voters aged 18—29 approve of Trump, with 51 percent disapproving, similar to the earlier July poll. Among women aged 18—29, approval is just 38 percent, while disapproval reaches 58 percent. But young men have a very different view of Trump. Among men aged 18—29, Trump hits 57 percent approval with a +17 net margin. As a result, Corley said that the notion that young voters broadly oppose Trump is outdated. "Trump's support is male-heavy, younger than expected, and hardening along gender lines. The idea that 'young voters oppose Trump' is outdated. True for women, increasingly false for men," Corley wrote. Independent Voters Slipping Away Meanwhile, the poll shows that as the 2026 midterms approach, Trump's support among independents is eroding. Just 38 percent of independents now approve of his performance, compared to 58 percent who disapprove—a stark 20-point deficit that has worsened since earlier in the month, when his net approval among independents stood at -17 percent. Notably, white independents, once a potential swing bloc for Trump, now disapprove of him by a 57 to 39 percent margin. Approval among nonwhite independents is even lower at 34 percent, with nearly two-thirds disapproving. Racial Gaps Widen Among Black voters, Trump posts 39 percent approval overall, with 50 percent of Black men backing him, a historic high for a Republican. But the poll also reveals a wide gender split, with just 30 percent of Black women backing him. But overall, Trump has seen a boost in support from Black voters, who broke for him 32 percent to 63 percent in the last poll. Among Hispanic voters, the divide is less pronounced. Trump draws 42 percent approval overall, with slightly higher ratings among Hispanic men (46 percent) than women (39 percent). His overall support from Hispanic voters is unchanged from mid-July. "The racial polarization that has long defined American politics is still in place but it's fraying at the edges, and in a country decided by razor-thin margins, the edges matter," Corley wrote. Trump's Approval Plateaus—But Cracks Are Growing Beneath the Surface Quantus' latest poll aligns closely with other recent national surveys, all of which suggest that Donald Trump's support has hit a ceiling, with his approval ratings stabilizing but showing little sign of growth. RMG Research, for example, currently has Trump at 50 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval—a nearly identical pattern to Quantus. Since late May, RMG has shown Trump's approval hovering between 50 and 52 percent, with disapproval consistently in the 46 to 48 percent range. This points to a remarkably steady public perception of the president, without major gains or losses. Emerson College Polling paints a similar picture. Their latest numbers place Trump at 46 percent approval and 47 percent disapproval. That net disapproval of +1 has been unchanged across their past three surveys, underscoring how locked-in public opinion has become. Fox News polling shows Trump at 46 percent approval and 54 percent disapproval—identical to their June findings. Despite shifts in the news cycle, these figures have shown no movement over the past month. The Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage also register Trump at 50 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval in their most recent poll. Back in April, their numbers were 46 to 44, indicating that while Trump's approval has ticked up slightly and disapproval has edged down, the overall net approval has remained steady at +2. Meanwhile, the YouGov/Economist poll continues to show Trump underwater, with 41 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval. That's virtually unchanged from a month ago, reinforcing the broader narrative: Trump's support base is solid, but stagnant. But other polls have shown Trump's approval ratings dip to a second-term low nationwide. Newsweek's approval tracker currently places Trump at a net minus 7 rating, with 45 percent of Americans approving and 52 percent disapproving. It is one of his lowest net approval scores in recent weeks. The most recent Marquette University survey shows Trump at 45 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, a net rating of -10, down two points from -8 in May. It is the lowest rating Marquette has recorded for Trump during his second term. Similarly, Navigator Research found his approval at 42 percent, with 54 percent disapproving, marking a net disapproval rating of +12—a four-point drop from June and also his worst rating from Navigator since returning to office. More dramatic declines appear in Gallup's latest polling, which shows Trump with just 37 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval—a net rating of -21, down from -17 last month. The Bullfinch Group also reports weakening support, with Trump now at 41 percent approval and 55 percent disapproval, a net rating of -14, down slightly from -13 in June.
