Seven bold possibilities for 2025 college football season that aren't crazy
Vanderbilt's cocksure quarterback recently left Paul Finebaum of the SEC Network speechless after Pavia confidently declared Vanderbilt a national championship contender, on the heels of going 7-6 last season.
Credit Pavia for managing that claim with a straight face.
Amused though I am by Pavia's boasts, I'm drawing the line in this space short of crazy and offering some bold – but not crazy – possibilities that could happen this season, before issuing a verdict on whether each of these bold possibilities will come to fruition.
Bold possibilities for 2025 college football season
1. A team ranked outside the top five will win the national title
Why this counts as a bold take: Each of the past five national champions were ranked in the preseason top five of the US LBM Coaches Poll.
Why this take isn't crazy: Potential party crashers populate the Nos. 6 through 10 spots in the coaches poll:
No. 6 Clemson: The Tigers bring back one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Cade Klubnik, amid a swath of returning production. They're armed with an elite defensive line.
No. 7 Oregon: The Ducks totaled 45 victories the past four seasons. They offer good value at this position in the rankings.
No. 8 Alabama: It's Alabama. Need I say more? Never count out a program that consistently signs ballyhooed recruiting classes.
No. 9 LSU: The Tigers will pair a top-shelf quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier, with the nation's most impressive transfer class.
No. 10 Miami: If Carson Beck regains his 2023 form, the Hurricanes become dangerous.
What I think will happen: No. 1 Texas will win the national championship behind Arch Manning.
2. A quarterback won't win the Heisman Trophy
Why this counts as a bold take: A quarterback won the Heisman in 12 of the past 15 years, and there's no shortage of quarterback star power, from Nussmeier to Klubnik to Beck to Manning to Penn State's Drew Allar and beyond.
Why this take isn't crazy: Good though the crop of quarterbacks is, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the nation's most incomparable player. He'll captivate voters while starring for a team that will remain among the nation's elite.
What I think will happen: I'm predicting this bold take will become reality. Smith will win the Heisman.
3. Arch Manning will not lead the SEC in passing yards
Why this counts as a bold take: Few players have received as much hype as Manning, who possesses the talent to live up to his surname.
Why this take isn't crazy: Texas likely will lean on a balanced offensive approach that incorporates running backs Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter working behind a dependable offensive line.
What I think will happen: Manning will enjoy a fine season. I like his chances to be among the Heisman finalists, but Nussmeier will lead the SEC in passing yards. He's the nation's only returning quarterback who passed for 4,000 yards last year, and LSU is loaded with standout wide receivers.
4. Three preseason unranked teams will make the playoff
Why this counts as a bold take: This prediction depends on multiple dark horses emerging, like Indiana and Arizona State did in 2024.
Why this take isn't crazy: Last year, four teams unranked in the preseason made the playoff, with Boise State and SMU joining Indiana and Arizona State. This bold take doesn't require 2025 to match the zaniness of last season, only for it to come close.
Boise State is the only ranked Group of Five team, so if any team other than the Broncos claims the Group of Five's automatic bid, that's a start toward three unranked teams qualifying. The Big 12 remains unpredictable, and 12 of its 16 teams begin unranked.
Unranked teams like Oklahoma, Baylor, Missouri and Nebraska intrigue me as playoff sleepers.
What I think will happen: Two teams unranked in the preseason will make the playoff.
5. Four SEC schools will make coaching changes
Why this counts as a bold take: SEC firings have tapered off the past few years after a particularly active coaching carousel in 2020. Large buyouts and schools' financial demands to pay athletes create more pause toward coaching changes.
Why this take isn't crazy: A handful of SEC coaches are on the hot seat, from Arkansas' Sam Pittman to Auburn's Hugh Freeze. Oklahoma's Brent Venables and Florida's Billy Napier encounter pivotal seasons, while staring down the nation's two toughest schedules. Their teams could be better, but their rugged schedules might limit win-loss improvement. Kentucky has lost momentum under Mark Stoops, although he's among embattled coaches who enjoy the protection of an immense buyout.
No SEC coaches were fired last season. That's groundwork for a much more active coaching carousel this year.
What I think will happen: Two SEC coaches will be fired, but a few others will survive the heat.
6. The Big Ten will qualify more playoff teams than the SEC
Why this counts as a bold take: The SEC has dominated the College Football Playoff era, and nine SEC teams are ranked in the preseason coaches poll, compared to six ranked Big Ten teams.
Why this take isn't crazy: The Big Ten's cream the past two seasons proved sweeter than the SEC's. The SEC enjoys an edge in terms of quality depth, but the Big Ten touts national title contenders in Penn State and Ohio State. Also, Michigan should improve after the arrival of five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood.
If last year serves as a guide to selecting the 12-team playoff, then it's a race to finishing 10-2 or better. The Big Ten's softer underbelly becomes an advantage to veteran teams like Illinois, which can pursue a playoff bid while facing only two teams ranked in the preseason poll. Compare that to Florida, which will face seven teams ranked in the preseason.
If the playoff doubled in size to 24 teams, the SEC's depth would allow it to commandeer the playoff, but in the playoff's current form, the Big Ten is well positioned with a couple of elite teams and a few others equipped to chase 10-2.
What I think will happen: The SEC will rebound after a bit of a down season and will qualify as many or more playoff teams as the Big Ten.
7. The national championship will be SEC vs. SEC
Why this counts as a bold take: The SEC dominated the four-team playoff era, but the Big Ten has ruled the past two seasons, and the SEC accounted for just 25% of inaugural 12-team playoff bracket. The Big Ten possesses two elite teams in Ohio State and Penn State, and Clemson and Notre Dame profile as championship contenders, too.
Why this take isn't crazy: The SEC features no shortage of playoff contenders. The preseason polls tell you that. The conference also includes more national championship contenders than any other league, with Texas, Georgia, Alabama and LSU headlining that list.
The playoff's restructured bye rules will allow multiple teams from the same conference to receive first-round byes and make it easier for one conference to push two teams into the national championship.
What I think will happen: The SEC will produce the national champion, but not the national runner-up.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
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