An unexpected theme is coming out of a turbulent sector: Stability
Yanked guidance, persistent headlines of service disruptions, and airport calamities have forced less-flattering associations with the sector.
But a steadiness is nonetheless the theme of the moment (apologies to travelers in Newark) as airlines share signs of booking stability even as trade and travel uncertainty cloud the outlook, alongside safety unease.
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In a new report Thursday, on Bank of America's Industrials, Transportation & Airlines Conference, airline management teams focused on the sturdiness of booking trends, especially at the three legacy carriers, United (UAL), American (AAL), and Delta (DAL). They also noted the continued resilience in premium travel, with softness mostly in main cabin, reflecting similar comments the companies made during their earnings calls last month.
Corporate travel growth is off the peak seen earlier in the year, according to the report, but is still positive. Despite it all.
That meshes with accounts outside of the sector that appear to show business-as-usual consumption in some respects but cautious spending elsewhere. More affluent customers continue to shell out, whereas lower earners are pulling back. As Delta Air Lines management noted, the bulk of weakness has come from off-peak bookings in the main cabin.
American Airlines and Southwest Airlines (LUV) both pulled their outlooks for 2025 when they reported last month, citing uncertainty that weighed on demand. Delta did the same. But since then, stability has taken hold, according to the report. At the conference, Frontier also noted that passenger demand has strengthened as consumer confidence improved, allowing the company to raise fares.
Another report on Thursday by the Bank of America Institute showed further signs of spending weakness, as well as bifurcation.
"Travel and tourism spending has gotten off to a slower start in 2025 than in the past few years," according to the report, which measured household card spending from the start of the year through the beginning of May. The data showed spending on airlines and lodging was notably weaker.
One potential reason behind softer travel spending, economists Taylor Bowley and David Tinsley said, is the sharp drop in consumer sentiment this year — a key theme that has rattled Wall Street and fueled concerns of a deteriorating economy.
"With lower confidence and rising economic uncertainty, it could be that consumers have decided to defer some relatively large, and often highly discretionary, travel spending," they said.
Survey data also showed that lower-income households appeared more inclined to vacation within the US this year than in 2024, and that a higher share of less-affluent people are planning not to travel at all.
But taken together, within the context of cratering consumer confidence, things seem to be pretty OK in a tough industry, despite it all.
It's becoming increasingly clear that the brief, wondrous era of post-pandemic travel is well behind us. Trade war summer doesn't sound that enticing. But if this was the sentiment pre-China pact and trade war thaw, maybe there will be a higher cruising altitude in the months ahead.
Hamza Shaban is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering markets and the economy. Follow Hamza on X @hshaban.
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