J.J. Spaun had the second-longest odds of any golfer to win a major over the last decade
Last week, Matt Wall, senior sports trader at BetMGM, said that Scottie Scheffler was a significant liability for the sportsbook heading into the U.S. Open, with customers 'leaning toward the proven quality in the field.' Scheffler entered the tournament as the biggest favorite to win the event (+275) since 2009, when Tiger Woods was +175 according to SportsOddsHistory.
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The outright odds were understandable considering Scheffler's recent form and the fact that fans had just watched him win the last major, the PGA Championship, less than a month ago. But, 'in golf, the ball doesn't care who's supposed to win,' former golfer Bobby Jones once said.
Enter J.J. Spaun.
Everyone's heard the saying, 'every dog has its day,' and in this case, it was a huge betting underdog who barked loudest when it was all said and done on Sunday. Spaun came into the tournament at anywhere between 125-to-1 to 150-1 to win it all.
Spaun began Sunday at 3-under-par, but that's when things got crazy. With a deluge of rain pouring down on Oakmont and 'borderline unplayable' conditions (thanks, Adam Scott), it was anyone's tournament to win going into the back nine. Ultimately, Spaun persevered while others drowned away down the leaderboard.
WHAT A PUTT!!!!
J.J. SPAUN WINS THE U.S. OPEN!!!! pic.twitter.com/EWdYQeDAzF
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 16, 2025
Despite the long odds, most sportsbooks did just fine with Spaun sinking that magnificent 64-foot, 5-inch putt to win it all.
On the flip side, Scheffler, the favorite, finished the 2025 U.S. Open in a tie for seventh place. Scheffler's short odds didn't deter bettors, as 31 percent of the money was on him to win before the tourney started.
'J.J. Spaun (+12500) was a long shot to win the U.S. Open, with only 0.1 percent of bets on him before Round 1 started.' Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM, said. 'Spaun winning was a good outcome for the sportsbook.'
How do Spaun's odds of winning the U.S. Open compare to other long shots at majors in the past? Per SportsOddsHistory, Spaun had the second-longest odds of any golfer to win a major over the last decade, behind only Phil Mickelson at the 2021 PGA, who entered the event at 250-1.
By Spaun's own admission, there's a reason he was a betting long shot coming into this event. 'Last year in June, I was looking like I was going to lose my job, and that was when I had that moment where, if this is how I go out, I might as well go down swinging,' Spaun said on Sunday.
The next golf major is The Open Championship, which will be played July 17-20. And yes, there are already odds at BetMGM for who the winner will be. To no one's surprise, Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are at the top of the betting board to win the event, with Scheffler at +450 and McIlroy just behind Scottie at +650.
Where does Spaun fall on the list? He comes in as another long shot at +6600. Is he worth a sprinkle at that price? Some might say he's got them right where he wants them.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of J.J. Spaun and family by Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
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