FM faces SNP criticism if he doesn't progress independence

The Herald Scotland

06-05-2025

John Swinney will mark his first anniversary on Thursday since he was sworn in as Scotland's First Minister.
His return from the backbenches to take up the role as head of the government took most people - even perhaps himself - by surprise.
To most observers Mr Swinney is seen as bringing calm to the SNP after a rocky period which followed the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon in March 2023, the bitter leadership contest of Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan, and the stepping up of the Police Scotland investigation into party finances.
Thanks to the combination of a drop in support for Labour after unpopular UK government decisions such as the axing of the universal winter fuel payments and increase in employers' national insurance contributions - and the rise in popularity of Nigel Farage's Reform UK - polling suggests the SNP is now on course to remain in power after the 2026 Holyrood elections.
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But what of Mr Swinney's work on independence?
And could his lack of progress on achieving the goal mean he may face a backlash from inside the SNP, as Professor James Mitchell of Edinburgh University told The Herald on Sunday at the weekend?
Since coming into office the First Minister has been pretty quiet on his party's founding goal.
He scrapped Ms Sturgeon's Building a New Scotland series, documents aimed at updating the 2014 independence prospectus and axed the post of independence minister from government.
Indeed's he's been so quiet on independence since coming into office, that back in January Ms Sturgeon declared that independence was "off the radar".
Her claim was swiftly and unsurprisingly rejected by Mr Swinney.
But it's hard to see what Mr Swinney's strategy on delivering independence actually is.
Some in the SNP say the strategy is to simply try and quietly drive up support among undecided Scots for the aim without actually addressing it explicitly.
They argue that by governing well and showing the merits of being a competent devolved government support for independence will inevitably rise.
Maybe so. But what about the mechanism of delivering it?
It's far from clear what the SNP process is currently to achieving independence.
If it's demanding a Section 30 order to transfer powers to Holyrood to hold a second independence vote, repeated calls by former FM Ms Sturgeon to the UK Government didn't work even after the SNP won major elections at Westminster and Holyrood.
So it's hardly likely to be a goer should the SNP win the next Holyrood elections even if the UK government is led by Labour rather than the Conservatives.
Another possible option, namely the holding of an advisory referendum by Holyrood without the UK Government's agreement, had to be jettisoned when the Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament did not have the powers to do so.
Since then, there has been little public discussion by the SNP about the process of achieving independence.
In December, Mr Swinney called for Scotland to have some form of formal mechanism to allow the country to hold an independence referendum similar to that which Northern Ireland has in the Good Friday Agreement.
I'd be sceptical whether these demands will be met.
They didn't succeed during the Brexit debates when the Scottish Government sought a special arrangement for Scotland on the grounds Northern Ireland one.
Both Conservative and Labour politicians opposed such a deal arguing the two states had very different histories in terms of their connections to the Union with Northern Ireland suffering 30 year of violent conflict.
Twelve months since becoming First Minister Mr Swinney is a popular figure inside the SNP, appreciated for bringing stability after turmoil.
But having done so, it is likely he will start to face pressure inside his party to make progress on independence and should he not do so he may find support begin to wane.