2025 Supercross fantasy racing for Round 7 in Arlington: Which riders will beat their odds

NBC Sports

21-02-2025

In addition to live wagering on SuperMotocross, UnderdogFantasy.com offers a real money game aimed at dirt bike racing enthusiasts.
In UnderdogFantasy.com's game, players decide which rider will outperform their prediction. To make the game more challenging, at least two riders must be selected, but the more riders a player adds to his card, the greater the exponential win.
Chase Sexton is NXTBets.com's slight favorite this week to score the overall win with a raw opening line of +144 and that contributes to his being the favorite in the fantasy game as well. With even odds, players must decided if Sexton is likely to win or finish second of worse. Given Sexton's tendency to throw races away with a mistake, it's difficult to handicap Sexton accurately and it might be best to skip the red-plate holder.
On the other hand, Cooper Webb can finish first or second to beat the prediction. If he does so, the game factors the player's success at x 0.87 compared to what they believe is a less-likely scenario of him finishing third or worse (x1.12). Webb has been great at Arlington in the past several years so rolling the dice is not unwelcomed.
Ken Roczen also has an over-under line of 2.5. His factor of x 1.07 to finish better than third is slightly worse than that of Webb and that drags his worse factor to x 0.92. Roczen has two podium finishes this year and two results of fourth in the first six rounds. His success depends on his starts and that makes him a risky proposition.
The game makers are not overly enthusiastic about Sexton's teammate Aaron Plessinger. His over-under number is 7.5 with equal odds of finishing better or worse. He has not yet finished better than seventh in six rounds.
Further down the order, Malcolm Stewart is highlighted with an over-under line of 4.5. His Tampa win gave him the momentum to finish fifth last week in Detroit and he could carry that to Arlington. Since he must finish fourth or better to cover the under, the safer bet is to take the over with a factor of x 0.90.
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