Mexico retailers poised for Q2 bump despite inflation rebound

Yahoo

16 hours ago

By Natalia Siniawski
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican retailers are expected to post solid second-quarter 2025 results, boosted by favorable calendar effects, though global economic risks and sticky inflation present challenges for brands in the year's second half, analysts told Reuters.
Favorable calendar effects have made analysts more optimistic about the quarter. Still, investors will watch results from Mexico's Walmart, Chedraui, and Liverpool for signs of how retailers were attracting cautious consumers as inflation ticked up and the economy weakened.
Analysts said inclusion of the Easter holiday in the second quarter will give sales figures a boost from last year, when Easter was in the first quarter.
Walmex has already announced record in-store and online sales during Mexico's Hot Sale, a nine-day promotional period that began in late May. An LSEG poll of analysts forecast Walmex will post a 9% revenue and 5% profit jump from a year earlier.
Antonio Hernandez, an analyst at Actinver, told Reuters many workers received their annual profit-sharing bonus payments in May, which increased their spending power during the promotional period.
"The Hot Sale's timing was able to benefit from the boost of PTU payment... especially for retailers more exposed to discretionary consumption like clothing or electronics," Hernandez said.
Ariel Mendez, consultant at Ve Por Mas financial group, said the Easter effect could boost soft drink and snacks retailers like Femsa, which owns Mexico's omnipresent chain of Oxxo convenience stores, and bottled drink giant Arca Continental.
In May, Mexico's annual headline inflation rose outside the central bank's target range of 2%-4%, where it remained in June. Core inflation, considered a better indicator of price trends, reached its highest level in June since April 2024.
Analysts said retailers have rolled out strategies inviting consumers to shift habits rather than cut back on purchases. For instance, they have been promoting cheaper store-brand products, offering loyalty programs and using smaller packaging.
"Retailers are increasing private label participation, as these brands are cheaper, more accessible for customers, and often yield better margins for the stores," said Hernandez.
Walmart, Chedraui, and Liverpool have all expanded these lines across multiple price tiers.
Analysts will likely read second-quarter results as a sign of how retailers' tactics could pay off in the second half, when the central bank forecasts the economy will grow just 0.1%.
Other headwinds could come in the form of lower remittances, which fell 4.6% in May, after April saw the steepest drop in over a decade. Analyst Hernandez warned that political and macro uncertainty could hit retailers more exposed to these flows. He added that while the minimum wage rose 12% this year, sales are not growing at the same pace — raising questions about whether consumers will spend more, and on what.
"I believe retailers will maintain all these strategies," Mendez said. "They not only provide a tool to combat inflation, but also allow them to be much more efficient, have wider margins, and, with that, better returns for investors."
($1 = 18.8332 Mexican pesos at end-June)