AI can make storm warnings faster and more accurate, researchers say
BERLIN: Artificial intelligence could soon be used to generate faster predictions and more timely warnings of imminent typhoons and downpours, according to scientists based in the US and the Netherlands.
In a paper published by the journal Nature , Microsoft researchers claimed that the company's Aurora AI model "outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean waves, tropical cyclone tracks and high-resolution weather, all at orders of magnitude lower computational cost."
Microsoft stated that the system was "trained on more than one million hours of diverse geophysical data" – enough information to enable it "more accurately predict not just the weather, but a wide range of environmental events in a series of retrospective analyses," including, hurricanes, typhoons and ocean waves
Meanwhile, a team from the US government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the University of Oklahoma said that a prediction model they created using Google DeepMind's Graphcast tool could be 10 times faster at predicting storms than previous computer-based platforms.
The researchers "trained" the Google platform on data from NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast-System (WOFS), creating an AI variant called WOFSCast that shortens forecast times from minutes to seconds.
"The model yielded largely accurate predictions of how storms would evolve for up to two hours; these predictions matched 70% to 80% of those generated by the Warn-on-Forecast system," according to the American Geophysical Union, which published the NOAA/Oklahoma findings its Geophysical Researh Letters journal. – dpa/Tribune News Service
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Malay Mail
3 hours ago
- Malay Mail
Europe is breaking its reliance on US climate data amid Trump-era science cuts
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Since his return to the White House, Trump has initiated sweeping budget cuts to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the National Institutes of Health, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Centres for Disease Control and other agencies, dismantling programmes conducting climate, weather, geospatial and health research, and taking some public databases offline. As those cuts take effect, European officials have expressed increasing alarm that — without continued access to US-supported weather and climate data — governments and businesses will face challenges in planning for extreme weather events and long-term infrastructure investment, according to Reuters interviews. In March, more than a dozen European countries urged the EU Commission to move fast to recruit American scientists who lose their jobs to those cuts. Asked for comment on NOAA cuts and the EU's moves to expand its own collection of scientific data, the White House Office of Management and Budget said Trump's proposed cuts to the agency's 2026 budget were aimed at programmes that spread 'fake Green New Scam 'science,'' a reference to climate change research and policy. 'Under President Trump's leadership, the US is funding real science again,' Rachel Cauley, an OMB spokesperson, said via email. European officials told Reuters that — beyond the risk of losing access to data that is bedrock to the world's understanding of climate change and marine systems — they were concerned by the general US pullback from research. 'The current situation is much worse than we could have expected,' Sweden's State Secretary for Education and Research Maria Nilsson, told Reuters. 'My reaction is, quite frankly, shock.' 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Those data sets are seen as critical to the shipping and energy industries as well as early storm warning systems. Over the next two years, the senior official said, the EU plans to expand its own European Marine Observation and Data Network which collects and hosts data on shipping routes, seabed habitats, marine litter and other concerns. The initiative was aimed at 'mirroring and possibly replacing US-based services,' the senior European Commission official told Reuters. Europe is particularly concerned about its vulnerability to US funding cuts to NOAA's research arm that would affect the Global Ocean Observing System, a network of ocean observation programmes that supports navigation services, shipping routes and storm forecasting, a second EU official told Reuters. The insurance industry relies on the Global Ocean Observing System's disaster records for risk modelling. Coastal planners use shoreline, sea-level, and hazard data to guide infrastructure investments. The energy industry uses oceanic and seismic datasets to assess offshore drilling or wind farm viability. In addition, the senior EU Commission official said, the EU is considering increasing its funding of the Argo programme, a part of the Global Ocean Observing System which operates a global system of floats to monitor the world's oceans and track global warming, extreme weather events and sea-level rise. NOAA last year described the programme, in operation for over 25 years, as the 'crown jewel' of ocean science. It makes its data freely available to the oil and gas industry, marine tourism and other industries. The United States funds 57 per cent of Argo's US$40 million annual operating expenses, while the EU funds 23 per cent. The White House and NOAA did not respond to questions about future support for that programme. The European moves to establish independent data collection and play a bigger role in Argo represent a historic break with decades of US leadership in ocean science, said Craig McLean, who retired in 2022 after four decades at the agency. He said US leadership of weather, climate and marine data collection was unmatched, and that through NOAA the US has paid for more than half of the world's ocean measurements. European scientists acknowledge the outsized role the US government has played in global scientific research and data collection — and that European countries have grown overly dependent on that work. 'It's a bit like defence: we rely heavily on the US in that area, too. They're trailblazers and role models-but that also makes us dependent on them,' Katrin Boehning-Gaese, scientific director of Germany's Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, told Reuters. 'Guerrilla archivists' A number of European governments are now taking measures to reduce that dependence. 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Databases need regular updating — which requires the funding and infrastructure that only governments can provide, Ross said. Over the last few months, the Federation and EU officials have held a series of talks with European researchers, US philanthropies and health and environment advocacy groups to discuss how to prioritise what data to save. 'There is an opportunity for other nations and institutions and philanthropies to fill in the gaps if US quality starts to falter,' she said. — Reuters
Malay Mail
a day ago
- Malay Mail
Chow Kon Yeow: Penang's RM296m ‘GBS By The Sea' hub fully occupied by global tech firms
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The Star
2 days ago
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AI researchers are negotiating US$250mil pay packages. Just like NBA stars
SAN FRANCISCO: Over the summer, Matt Deitke got a phone call from Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's chief executive. Zuckerberg wanted Deitke, a 24-year-old artificial intelligence researcher who had recently helped found a startup, to join Meta's research effort dedicated to 'superintelligence,' a technology that could hypothetically exceed the human brain. The company promised him around US$125mil (RM534.7mil) in stock and cash over four years if he came aboard. The offer was not enough to lure Deitke, who wanted to stick with his startup, two people with knowledge of the talks said. He turned Zuckerberg down. So Zuckerberg personally met with Deitke. Then Meta returned with a revised offer of around US$250mil (RM1bil) over four years, with potentially up to US$100mil (RM427.8mil) of that to be paid in the first year, the people said. The compensation jump was so startling that Deitke asked his peers what to do. After many discussions, some of them urged him to take the deal – which he did. Silicon Valley's AI talent wars have become so frenzied – and so outlandish – that they increasingly resemble the stratospheric market for NBA stars. Young AI researchers are being recruited as if they are Steph Curry or LeBron James, with nine-figure compensation packages structured to be paid out over several years. To navigate the froth, many of the 20-somethings have turned to unofficial agents and entourages to strategise. And they are playing hardball with the companies to get top dollar, much as basketball players shop for the best deals from teams. The difference is that unlike NBA teams, deep-pocketed AI companies like Meta, OpenAI and Google have no salary caps. (Curry's most recent four-year contract with the Golden State Warriors was US$35mil/RM150mil less than Deitke's deal with Meta.) That has made the battles for AI talent even wilder. Over the past few weeks, recruiting AI free agents has become a spectacle on social media, much like the period before a trade deadline in sports. As Meta, Microsoft, Google and OpenAI have poached employees from one another, job announcements have been posted online with graphics resembling major sports trades, made by the online streaming outlet TBPN, which hosts an ESPN-like show about the tech and business world. 'BREAKING: Microsoft has poached over 20 staff members from DeepMind over the last six months,' read one recent TBPN post about Microsoft's hiring from Google's DeepMind lab. Jordi Hays, a co-host of TBPN, said that as tech and AI have gone mainstream, more people are following the recruitment fray 'the way our friends from college obsess over sports – the personalities, the players, the leagues.' On Wednesday, Zuckerberg said Meta planned to continue throwing money at AI talent 'because we have conviction that superintelligence is going to improve every aspect of what we do.' Superintelligent AI would not just improve the company's business, he said, but would also become a personal tool that 'has the potential to begin an exciting new era of individual empowerment.' A Meta spokesperson declined to comment. Deitke did not respond to a request for comment. The job market for AI researchers has long had parallels to professional sports. In 2012, after three academics at the University at Toronto published a research paper describing a seminal AI system that could recognise objects like flowers and cars, they auctioned themselves off to the highest corporate bidder – Google – for US$44mil (RM188.21mil). That kicked off a race for talent across the tech industry. By 2014, Peter Lee, Microsoft's head of research, was likening the market to that for up-and-coming pro football players, many of whom were making about US$1mil (RM4.28mil) a year. 'Last year, the cost of a top, world-class deep learning expert was about the same as a top NFL quarterback prospect,' Lee told Bloomberg BusinessWeek at the time, referring to a type of AI specialist. 'The cost of that talent is pretty remarkable.' The leverage that AI researchers have in negotiating job terms has only increased since OpenAI released the ChatGPT chatbot in 2022, setting off a race to lead the technology. They have been aided by scarcity: Only a small pool of people have the technical know-how and experience to work on advanced artificial intelligence systems. That's because AI is built differently from traditional software. These systems learn by analysing enormous amounts of digital data. Few researchers have experience with the most advanced systems, which require giant pools of computing power available to only a handful of companies. The result has been a fresh talent war, with compensation soaring into the hundreds of millions of dollars a year, from millions of dollars a year. In April, Zuckerberg – whose company was struggling to advance its AI research – dived in by sending personal messages to potential recruits, offering them larger and larger sums. His approach was similar to that of sports franchise owners, two Meta employees said. Even if the offers seemed absurd, if the new hires could help increase revenue by even half a percent – especially for a company that is closing in on a US$2 trillion (RM8.56 trillion) market capitalisation – it would be worth it, the people said. 'If I'm Zuck and I'm spending US$80bil (RM342.20bil) in one year on capital expenditures alone, is it worth kicking in another US$5bil (RM22.4bil) or more to acquire a truly world-class team to bring the company to the next level?' Hays said. 'The answer is obviously yes.' Meta's initial offers to engineers varied but hovered in the mid-tens of millions of dollars, three people familiar with the process said. The company also offered recruits something that was arguably more attractive than money: computing power. Some potential hires were told they would be allotted 30,000 graphical processing units, or GPUs, for their AI research, one of the people said. GPUs, which are powerful chips ideal for running the calculations that fuel AI, are highly coveted. Zuckerberg has hired with the help of the List, a document with the names of the top minds in AI, two people familiar with the effort said. Many on the List have three main qualifications: a doctorate in an AI-related field, experience at a top lab and contributions to AI research breakthroughs, one of the people said. The Wall Street Journal previously reported some details of the List. Some researchers on the List have created chat groups on Slack and Discord to discuss offers, two people in the groups said. When someone lands an offer, they can drop the details in the group chats and ask peers to weigh in. (AI is a tight-knit field where people often know one another.) They trade information about which companies to approach for another offer so they can build up their price, the people said. Working with friends can be just as important as the money. After a researcher joins a new lab, the first thing that person often does is try to recruit friends, two people familiar with the process said. The talent wars have started causing pain. OpenAI has changed its compensation structure to account for the shift in the market, employees at the company said, and is asking those approached by competitors to consult executives before immediately accepting offers. 'Are we countering? Yes,' Mark Chen, OpenAI's chief research officer, said at a company meeting this month, according to a recording reviewed by The New York Times. But he added that OpenAI had not matched Meta's offers because 'I personally think that in order to work here, you have to believe in the upside of OpenAI.' OpenAI declined to comment. (The Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft, claiming copyright infringement in relation to news content related to AI systems. The two companies have denied the claims.) Not all of Meta's overtures have succeeded. The company has been rebuffed by some researchers, two people said, partly because Zuckerberg's vision for artificial intelligence was unclear compared to those at other companies. Still, the frenzy has allowed even little-known researchers like Deitke to chart their own destinies. Deitke, who recently dropped out of a computer science PhD program at the University of Washington, had moonlighted at a Seattle AI lab called the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence. There, he led the development of a project called Molmo, an AI chatbot that juggles images, sounds and text – the kind of system that Meta is trying to build. In November, Deitke and several Allen Institute colleagues founded Vercept, a startup that is trying to build AI agents, which can use other software on the Internet to autonomously perform tasks. With about 10 employees, Vercept has raised US$16.5mil (RM70.6mil) from investors such as former Google chief executive Eric Schmidt. Then came Deitke's back-and-forth with Zuckerberg. After Deitke accepted Meta's roughly US$250mil four-year offer, Vercept's CEO posted on social media, 'We look forward to joining Matt on his private island next year.' – © 2025 The New York Times Company This article originally appeared in The New York Times
