European leaders eye Trump-Putin talks on Ukraine with anxiety

Irish Times

10 hours ago

The further east you travel across Europe, the higher the anxiety levels are in national capitals about what
US
president
Donald Trump
might do when he meets Russian leader
Vladimir Putin
in Alaska on Friday.
The terms of any future truce in
Ukraine
feel existential to
EU
states closer to
Russia
, more than the seemingly averted trade war between the European Union and the US does.
Following Wednesday's online meeting with Mr Trump, European leaders were quick to put a positive spin on the outcome.
German chancellor
Friedrich Merz
told reporters that Trump knows Europe's position and shares that 'extensively', while French president
Emmanuel Macron
said Trump will 'fight' for a trilateral meeting with both Putin and Ukrainian president
Volodymyr Zelenskiy
.
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The reality, however, is that Zelenskiy has been kept out of the sit-down by Trump and Putin in Alaska, as have other European leaders, who fear Putin will use the opportunity to manoeuvre Trump into supporting a peace deal more favourable to Russia.
France's president Emmanuel Macron, European Council president Antonio Costa, France's foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot and France's minister for the armed forces Sebastien Lecornu attend a video conference with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and German chancellor Friedrich Merz on Wednesday. Photograph: Philippe Magoni/AFP/Getty
The EU has tried and failed to get a seat at any table discussing the possible end of the war, which Russia started when it invaded Ukraine in early 2022.
The Ukrainian president has done what he can to stay on Trump's good side and had seemed to convince the US president that Putin was the real obstacle to any ceasefire.
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Trump-Putin meeting: After months strengthening its hand, Ukraine is back to square one
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That was the message Zelenskiy and the leaders of Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Poland and Finland stressed in their video call with Trump on Wednesday.
The big fear is that Trump will come out of the Alaska talks with the outline of a deal which sells Ukraine short in a bid to bring about a quick end to the conflict.
Politically, Kyiv will surely not give up any territory held by Russian forces as the price of a shaky ceasefire alone.
In a worst-case scenario, the White House could pressure Zelenskiy to make significant concessions by threatening to cut off vital support the US is providing to Ukraine, from weapons to battlefield intelligence. The Ukrainian leader would then be faced with accepting a bad deal, or fighting on without the help of the US.
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Zelenskiy says Trump promised postwar security guarantees for Ukraine
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Officials in Brussels are concerned that a truce on Russia's terms could undermine the future of Ukraine and, by extension, the security of Europe.
Despite commitments to spend huge sums on defence over the coming years, Europe still relies on the security blanket Washington has provided for the Continent since the end of the second World War.
The EU has bent over itself to keep the fraying transatlantic bond from breaking altogether. Ukraine could become the latest flashpoint in those tensions.
German chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy attend a joint press conference following a virtual meeting hosted by Mr Merz between European leaders and US president Donald Trump in Berlin, Germany. Photograph: Omer Messinger/Getty
'It's not quite a case of panic; EU capitals are taking this very seriously, but let's see,' said one Brussels-based diplomat. 'There might be something that could come of this, some dynamic that might lead somewhere.'
It is fair to say nobody really knows what to expect.