英国がトランプ関税を回避できている理由

Wall Street Journal

05-02-2025

【ロンドン】良い貿易戦争をしている国の一つは英国だ。
少なくとも今のところは何とか戦いを回避している。
LONDON—One country that is having a good trade war is Great Britain.
At least, so far, it is managing to duck the fight.
While President Trump threatens to place tariffs on Western allies, including Canada and the European Union, he said this week that U.S. trade with the U.K., although out of line, can be worked out. British officials are hopeful the country can stay off his tariff target list.
To do so, Downing Street is banking on a mix of serving up modest flattery, playing to Trump's soft spot for the British monarchy and keeping its head down.
'We are well positioned in the sense that we are inoffensive,' says Sam Lowe, a London-based trade expert at the consulting firm Flint Global.
Britain, whose economy is heavily service based, buys roughly as many goods from America as it exports to the U.S. market. And its departure from the EU means it isn't part of a big, attention-grabbing trade bloc. Even though U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is from the other side of the political spectrum, Trump recently described him as 'very nice.'
Still, the U.K. is engaged in a delicate dance as it tries to foster economic growth by rebuilding relations with Europe and China—all while keeping the U.S., its biggest-single trade partner, on its side. That balancing act was on full display this week as Starmer traveled to Brussels in what was billed as an attempt to reset relations with EU leaders in the wake of Brexit.
While his counterparts in the bloc spoke out to criticize Trump's threat to impose a 10% tariff on EU imports, Starmer stuck to the center of the road. 'If you look at our vital interests, it's really important that we work with both and that we don't see it as either-or,' he said. It was still 'early days' when it came to tariffs and the U.S., the prime minister added later.
The good news for the British government is that Trump is one of the most Anglophile U.S. leaders in decades. His mother was from Scotland, where he is expected to open a third golf course this year. He restored a bust of Winston Churchill to the Oval Office after President Joe Biden removed it. The president signs off on trade tariffs while sitting at the Resolute Desk, an 1880 gift from Britain's Queen Victoria.
Shortly after being re-elected in November, Trump was shown in Tucker Carlson's docuseries 'Art of The Surge' leafing through a photo album of his state visit to meet Queen Elizabeth II when he was first president. 'I mean who has images like this,' Trump says. 'And these were relationships too…Look, it's Charles. So beautiful,' he says about a photo of the now-British monarch.
For the British, this is a happy contrast with Biden, who spent a great deal of his time in office talking up his Irish roots, and was no fan of Brexit. But the risk is the current White House incumbent's appreciation turns into a suffocating bear hug.
'The Trump team really loves Britain, so they think it's their job to save it,' says Bronwen Maddox, the director of Chatham House, a London-based think tank. Maddox says one senior Trump ally she spoke with at the World Economic Forum in Davos recently expressed the view that the U.K. was in the grip of left-wing politicians and needed to be straightened out. Trump ally Elon Musk, for one, has repeatedly posted on X criticizing Starmer, a former human-rights lawyer, and calling for him to be replaced.
So far, Trump's comments about Starmer have been more affable. Last year, the pair spent two hours during the campaign talking over dinner at Trump Tower, and both leaders have spoken by phone recently. Trump last month said they 'get along well' despite Starmer being 'liberal, which is a little bit different from me.'
But perhaps Britain's Trump card, so to speak, is its royal family. In December, Prince William, King Charles III's heir, was dispatched to meet with the president-elect after they both attended the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris.
'I had a great talk with the prince,' Trump later told the New York Post. 'He looked really, very handsome last night. Some people look better in person? He looked great. He looked really nice, and I told him that.'
A Downing Street spokesman said the government hopes to get Trump back to Buckingham Palace as soon as possible. He added there was a 'fair and balanced' trading relationship with the U.S. and pointed to the fact that there is '£1.2 trillion invested in each other's economies.'
Further helping Britain's case is some ambiguous trade data. According to U.S. figures, America had a $14.5 billion trade surplus with the U.K. in 2023. U.K. figures, however, record that it was Britain that had a trade surplus with the U.S. to the tune of £71.1 billion in the same year. (The discrepancy is explained in part by the fact that the U.S. figures include trade with several semiautonomous islands known as British 'crown dependencies,' such as the Isle of Man, which are financial centers). U.K. officials hope to tighten trade ties with the U.S., including on artificial intelligence and defense.
There are plenty of potential road bumps. Even if Britain isn't hit directly by tariffs, its trade-reliant economy would be exposed to the blowback of any global trade war. During his first presidency, Trump didn't hold back from criticizing Britain's leaders, mostly over its botched divorce from the EU. British officials are bracing for more such brickbats.
Write to Max Colchester at [e-mail]