The Top 6 Weather Conspiracy Theories Debunked

Forbes

19-07-2025

SANTA FE, NM - APRIL 10, 2015: Jet aircraft leave streaks of contrails across the sky above Santa ... More Fe, New Mexico. (Photo by)
For whatever reason, many weather conspiracy theories have crawled out of the fringes and into mainstream discussions. Over the years, many of us have tried to play 'Whac-A-Mole' with them, but they live on like 'zombies' marching around the Internet and social media wasteland. Let's try to debunk the top six weather conspiracies currently in circulation right now.
Cloud Seeding
Let's start here since it has been in the news lately. People have done there 'own research' and concluded that cloud seeding caused the Texas Floods. That has been disproven. While there is plenty of information out there about cloud seeding, it is important to develop a filter to distinguish sales pitch from science. As I recently wrote in my cloud seeding primer, it is not new, and results have been found inconclusive or minimally effective at best. My colleague Tom Gill puts it best that, 'The effect of cloud seeding on the kinds of floods we've seen recently is comparable to striking a match to a raging inferno.' Candidly, I wish it was more effective so that we could eradicate economically harmful drought and raging wildfires like those happening across the U.S. right now.
In this photo provided by the National Park Service, smoke from wildfires settles over Grand Canyon ... More National Park in northern Arizona on Friday, July 11, 2025. (Joelle Baird/Grand Canyon National Park)
Geoengineering and Chemtrails
The concept of geoengineering has been around for decades. As scholar within the field, it has also been referred to as 'climate intervention.' It has been studied by the National Academies and many credible scientific organizations. The American Meteorological Society wrote a policy statement in 2022 that stated, 'Such efforts are now commonly referred to as climate intervention (also called geoengineering): the deliberate manipulation of physical, chemical, or biological aspects of the Earth system with the intention of tempering the harmful effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.'
Oddly, in recent years, I have noticed a disturbing conflation of geoengineering with misinformation about contrails. A National Weather Service website defines contrails as, 'Condensation trails, frequently called Contrails…. Cloud-like streamers frequently observed to form behind aircraft flying in clear, cold, humid air.' NWS noted two processes for formation. The website went on to say, 'The first method occurs when water vapor that accompanies the exhaust from a jet engine is added to the atmosphere. If the humidifying effect of this moisture addition overcomes the heat of combustion, then exhaust trails will form…. The second process for forming a condensation trail occurs in air that is clear, but almost fully saturated with water vapor. The aerodynamic pressure reduction resultant of air flowing around a propeller or wing tips can cool the air to induce condensation, thus forming 'aerodynamic trails.''
TORONTO, ON - February 3 - The breath of a worker on Yonge St. can be seen in the air on a bitterly ... More cold day in Toronto. Lance McMillan/Toronto StarFebruary-3-2023 (Photo by Lance McMillan/Toronto Star via Getty Images)
In my over 30 years of experience as an atmospheric scientist, there are things that I have discovered about public understanding of weather. Concepts like probability of precipitation, concepts that are counter to personal mental models, and multiple processes are challenging. For example, temperature decreases as altitude increases. Most planes are flying in very cold altitudes. Though not a perfect analogy, the breath we 'see' on a cold day helps to visualize what's happening with contrails. They are not mind-altering or weather-controlling sprays. The Royal Aeronautical Society has a great website debunking 'chemtrails.' The American Association for the Advancement of Science is one the largest and most credible science societies in the world. AAAS also debunked them by reviewing perspectives from several top experts.
Steering Or Controlling Hurricanes
I was literally stunned to see claims that Hurricane Milton or Hurricane Helene were being controlled or created. While on a major network being interviewed about Milton, I was asked about it. Yikes! I find it to be quite disrespectful to all families impacted by such tragic storms. I certainly wish we could steer or control hurricanes so that they could be sent out to sea and not harm a single soul or piece of infrastructure. Every now and then, the idea of 'nuking' hurricanes resurfaces. That thought has been around for a while too, but in a previous piece, I discussed why experts have concluded that's a bad idea.
Several years ago people claimed that the U.S. government had a massive cloud machine. It turned out to be a NASA engine test facility in Mississippi. In recent months, it has emerged that some people believe weather radars are being weaponized to control the weather or harm people. CNN's Andrew Freedman documented this trend.
TOPSHOT - A drone image shows the dome of Tropicana Field which has been torn open due to Hurricane ... More Milton in St. Petersburg, Florida, on October 10, 2024. At least four people were confirmed killed as a result of two tornadoes triggered by Hurricane Milton on the east coast of the US state of Florida, local authorities said Thursday. (Photo by Bryan R. SMITH / AFP) (Photo by BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP via Getty Images)
HAARP
Relatively speaking, the HAARP conspiracy theory might be feeling a little neglected these days. It's one that has been around for a while, but it has been in the shadows lately compared to the new batch out there. Like many of these conspiracy theories, HAARP is rooted in real science but has been distorted, conflated, and misrepresented. According to University of Alaska's website, 'The High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program, or HAARP, is a scientific endeavor aimed at studying the properties and behavior of the ionosphere.' That is region of the atmosphere about 50 to 400 miles above Earth's surface. The United States Air Force transition the research facility to the university in 2015, and it continues to be used for ionospheric research not weather manipulation.
The Northern Lights appear in the sky in Svolvaer, Norway, on October 22, 2023. The Northern Lights ... More occur due to the interplay between the sun and Earth's magnetic field, which propels electrons through the atmosphere at rapid velocities. (Photo by Manuel Romano/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Climate Change Is A Hoax
Much of what we are seeing with weather today can likely be associated with something that scientists have warned about for decades. Though weather certainly varies naturally, climate experts warned of an accelerated water cycle, intense rainstorms, sea level rise, mega-heatwaves, and changes to tropical cyclone intensities. While data continues to indicate that most people 'get it' about climate change, there is about 10% of the U.S. population that is dismissive. From that crowd, you typically here 'zombie theories like:'
2024 results from the 6 Americas Study.
I wrote an article in 2017 addressing these and there are several good websites out there that debunk them and other common things that we hear.
General circulation patterns.
The Earth Is Flat
While not technically a weather conspiracy theory, there are several aspects of weather, among other things, that disprove the notion that Earth is flat. We can start with imagery from weather satellites or spacecraft. Additionally, the vibrant colors of sunrises and sunsets is an exercise in physics but is a natural process that proves Earth is not flat.
A view of Earth from the Space Shuttle Discovery shows late afternoon sun on the Andes Mountains, ... More with glare and heavy cloud illumination.
The presence of a warm tropical regions and cold polar regions, respectively, is additional evidence. Earth's equatorial region receives more heat energy from the sun. Atmospheric circulation and ocean currents are, in part, explained by this polar-to-tropical temperature difference. Finally, weather radar beams and their ability to detect storms are affected by Earth's curvature.
People cling to conspiracy theories for a multitude of reasons. This 2020 essay provides a deep dive into literacy deficiencies, fear, psychological reasoning, disproportionate weighting of information on the Internet, and other factors that perpetuate them.
Radar beams and the curvature of the Earth.