Stock Movers: Oil, Newmont, US Steel
On this episode of Stock Movers: - Raytheon (RTX) is higher this morning along with other defense stocks on the S&P as geopolitical tensions rise over Israel's strikes on Iran. It launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program and ballistic-missile sites renewed a standoff between two adversaries that risks spiraling into a wider conflict. While the reaction was strongest in crude oil, other pockets of the market suggested that investors are watching how long the tensions will last and whether the situation escalates. - Chevron (CVX) shares are higher this morning as Israel strikes Iran. Oil prices surged double digits after Israel carried out strikes against Iran, raising fears of a wider war in the region. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, is a key concern, with the potential for Tehran to retaliate and block the strait, and OPEC+ spare capacity potentially being challenged in such a scenario. - Newmont Corp. (NEM) shares are higher this morning as gold's risk premium is lifted by Israel's attack on Iran. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Israel's attack on Iran could trigger a further jump in gold's risk premium above fair value of $100-$150 an ounce, pushing the metal beyond $3,600. Gold is expensive vs. almost every other financial yardstick and appears overvalued by $200-$700 an ounce vs. our three regression models, yet it's likely to remain a lead indicator. - US Steel (X) shares are lower in premarket trading after Nikkei reported that Nippon Steel's planned takeover of the US company may not proceed if the Japanese company has insufficient freedom of management. Nippon Steel continues to seek condition that US steel becomes wholly owned, Nikkei reported citing an unidentified executive
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Stock Market News Review: SPY, QQQ Drop amid Israel-Iran Escalation, VIX Surge
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Momentum stocks that helped drive the market's epic recovery are stalling. Get ready for a ‘buyable' pullback.
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3 hours ago
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Gold and oil prices have a message for investors about Iran tensions
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been rising, but the big moves in gold and oil prices can help gauge just how serious the situation has become — and hint at what's next for global financial markets. 'Gold and oil are two of the most geopolitical-sensitive market barometers we have,' said John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Given that, they are the 'first places I look when geopolitical risks arise in the Middle East.' My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector Walmart's stock looks like it's in trouble. What the chart says may come next. Why bonds aren't acting like a safe haven for investors amid the Israel-Iran conflict My mother-in-law thought the world's richest man needed Apple gift cards. How on Earth could she fall for this scam? And those risks have certainly been climbing. On Thursday, Iran said it would soon open a third uranium-enrichment site, even as negotiations with the U.S. over a nuclear deal are expected to continue Sunday. President Donald Trump has said he is less confident about reaching a deal with Tehran and that he could take military action against Iran if negotiations fail, according to the Wall Street Journal. Israel appears to be preparing an attack on Iran's nuclear sites, the New York Times reported Wednesday, and fears of potential retaliation across the region by Tehran appeared to prompt the U.S. to withdraw diplomatic personnel from Iraq and authorize the departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East. What sets this escalation apart from prior flare-ups is that 'it's being taken more seriously by the market — evidenced by the U.S. decision to relocate nonmilitary personnel from the region, which suggests this is more than just rhetorical posturing,' said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth in New York. 'Israel is more emboldened to act unilaterally,' she told MarketWatch. 'Unlike in previous years, there's a real risk that Israel could strike Iran without direct U.S. support if talks collapse.' Geopolitical risk premium in crude had been 'minimal' until recently, Babin said, with markets having been 'increasingly optimistic that an interim deal would be reached, and analysts had started softening [oil] balance forecasts under the assumption that Iranian exports might remain stable.' At the same time, crude sentiment has remained 'deeply bearish,' with many investors short oil as a 'broader play on weakening global demand,' Babin added. 'This combination of low embedded risk premium and high geopolitical uncertainty creates a fragile setup where even modest escalation could cause outsized market reactions.' Against that backdrop, prices for both gold and oil have been making some big moves. On Thursday, the August gold contract GCQ25 GC00 gained $58.70, or 1.8%, to settle at $3,402.40 an ounce on Comex, nearing the record settlement for a front-month contract of $3,425.30 from April 21, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Oil, meanwhile, saw U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CLN25 CL.1 edge down by 11 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $68.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, after a 4.9% rise on Wednesday. Global benchmark Brent crude for August delivery BRNQ25 BRN00 lost 41 cents, or 0.6%, to end at $69.36 on ICE Futures Europe, a day after climbing 4.3%. In energy markets, the developments tied to Iran were priced in almost immediately, said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone, in a recent note, with Brent crude climbing Wednesday from its 50-day moving average near $66 a barrel. Traders are concerned about the risk of oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, he said. That's the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, with 20.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the strait in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 'The geopolitical premium remains pronounced,' said Assiri. Brent prices eased back Thursday, but only modestly from Wednesday's rise, and prices are 'undeterred by broader headwinds such as trade tariffs and their dampening effect on global growth, or OPEC+ production increases led by Saudi Arabia, which appears intent on boosting market share,' he said. 'Taken together, these factors signal genuine concern over a potential resurgence of instability in the Middle East,' Assiri said. 'Geopolitical risk has been vaulted back to the forefront after a period of relative easing following earlier positive developments in the region.' For oil, future performance hinges on two primary drivers, he noted. First, the 'inherently unpredictable geopolitical dynamic, now leveraged as a bargaining chip by the U.S. administration, demands close monitoring since shift in diplomatic posture or regional tensions could alter the supply outlook,' said Assiri. The economic backdrop is the second primary driver, as oil demand appears stronger than anticipated a month ago, 'supported by ongoing signals of global growth and only muted inflationary impact from tariffs,' he said. The direct effects of tariffs on inflation have so far been limited, 'reducing the odds of a recession scenario relative to prior forecasts,' he added — underpinning continued growth in oil demand that outstrips consensus expectations. Overall, the 'interplay' between geopolitical maneuvering and underlying demand strength suggests that oil-market dynamics will remain 'prone to swings and traders should factor in the likelihood of volatility tied to shifts in regional risk,' said Assiri. For gold, of course, it's a 'flight-to-safety trade,' RJO Futures' Caruso said. If there is 'military action [instead of] diplomacy' on Iran, then gold, as well as oil, could go much higher. Geopolitical concerns are tailwinds for gold, along with falling Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar DXY, said Michael Armbruster, co-founder and managing partner at futures brokerage Altavest. He warned, however, that Middle East tensions have a tendency to 'come and go quickly, and if that happens again, gold's spike may be short-lived.' Armbruster said he 'would not buy gold just because of Iran.' The Middle East is a 'nice narrative for gold, but investors are likely to buy at tops if they are chasing headlines,' he noted. Altavest believes a better buying opportunity could emerge in gold in the coming weeks, he added, as data forecast a 'reflationary environment' in June — with reflation equaling a reacceleration in growth and inflation. Long term, Armbruster said the firm is still bullish on gold and is 'simply on the lookout for a dip for our clients to add to their long gold position.' Taking a look at the bigger picture, Caruso said he's not seeing much of a 'risk-off' play in the markets at this point — but if the U.S.-Iran dispute escalates, 'we'll surely see the risk-off, safe-haven trade in effect.' 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. Gundlach says gold is no longer for lunatics as the bond king says wait to buy the 30-year 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? I'm in my 80s and have 2 kids. How do I choose between them to be my executor? 'It might be another Apple or Microsoft': My wife invested $100K in one stock and it exploded 1,500%. Do we sell? Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
