Shangri-La Dialogue: Implications for Asia-Pacific Stability
As May closed, delegates from 47 countries gathered in Singapore for the 22
nd
annual Shangri-La Dialogue. Named for the hotel where it is held and sponsored by London's prestigious Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), attendees included prime ministers, defense ministers, and policymakers with Indo-Pacific security as its primary focus of attention.
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CNN
26-07-2025
- CNN
Thai-Cambodian conflict pits a well-equipped US ally against a weaker adversary with strong China links
The deadly conflict on the Thai-Cambodian border pits a longtime United States ally with decades of experience against a relatively young armed force with close ties to China. Bangkok and Phnom Penh are fighting over territory disputed since colonial power France drew the border between them more than a century ago. Clashes continued into Saturday, according to officials on both sides. More than a dozen people have been reported killed, dozens wounded, and more than 150,000 civilians evacuated since fighting began on Thursday. Here's a look at the histories and capabilities of the two sides. Thailand's military dwarfs that of neighboring Cambodia, both in personnel and weaponry. Thailand's total of 361,000 active-duty personnel spread across all branches of the kingdom's military is three times Cambodia's. And those troops have at their disposal weaponry their Cambodian counterparts could only dream of. 'Thailand has a large, well-funded military and its air force is one of the best equipped and trained in Southeast Asia,' the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote in its 'Military Balance 2025' look at the world's armed forces. Meanwhile, a 2024 ranking of the military capabilities of 27 regional nations by the Lowy Institute places Thailand at 14th, to Cambodia's 23rd. Such a disparity is perhaps to be expected, given Thailand has four times as many people as Cambodia, and a GDP more than 10 times larger. Unlike Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, it escaped the ravages of the wars that engulfed the region in the second half of the 20th century, and the European colonialism that preceded them. Overall, with factors including military, economic, diplomatic and cultural power weighed in the Lowy Asia Power Index, Thailand is ranked 10th, considered a middle power, just behind Indonesia but ahead of countries including Malaysia and Vietnam. Lowy ranks Cambodia as a minor power in Asia, grouped with countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Laos. Thailand's military has long been a major player in the kingdom's politics. The country has for years been dominated by a conservative establishment comprising the military, the monarchy and influential elites. Generals have seized power in 20 coups since 1932, often toppling democratic governments, according to the CIA World Factbook, and the military portrays itself as the ultimate defender of the monarchy. Thailand is a United States treaty ally, a status dating back to the signing of the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty, also known as the Manila Pact, in 1954, according to the US State Department. During the Vietnam War, Thailand hosted US Air Force assets at some air bases, including B-52 bombers, and tens of thousands Thai troops fought on the side of the US-backed South Vietnam against the communist North. Strong ties between Washington and Bangkok have endured. Thailand is classed as a major non-NATO ally by the US, giving it special benefits that have enabled it to enjoy access to decades of US support for its weapons programs. Thailand and the US Indo-Pacific Command co-host the annual Cobra Gold military exercise, which began in 1982 as joint drills with the US but has since added dozens of other participants. It's the longest-running international military exercise in the world, according to the US military. Besides Cobra Gold, Thai and US forces hold more than 60 exercises together, and more than 900 US aircraft and 40 Navy ships visit Thailand yearly, the US State Department says. Despite all that history with Washington, these days the Thai military tries to maintain a more neutral approach to military policy, increasing ties with China in the past decade. Not wanting to rely on any one country as its arms supplier, it has also developed a strong domestic weapons industry, with the help of countries such as Israel, Italy, Russia, South Korea and Sweden, the 'Military Balance' report says. Cambodia's military is young in comparison to Thailand's, established in 1993 after forces of the communist government were merged with two non-communist resistance armies, according to the IISS. 'Cambodia's most important international defense links are with China and Vietnam. Despite a traditional reliance on Russia for defense equipment, China has emerged as a key supplier,' the IISS says. Beijing has even developed a naval base in Cambodia. The Ream Naval Base, on the Gulf of Thailand, would be able to host Chinese aircraft carriers, according to international analysts. Cambodia and China completed the seventh edition of their annual Golden Dragon joint military exercise in May, which was touted as the largest ever and featured live-fire training scenarios. It's a relationship that's expected to reach 'a new level and achieve new development' this year, according to a February report on the People's Liberation Army's English-language website. 'China and Cambodia are iron-clad friends who… always support each other. The two militaries enjoy unbreakable relations and rock-solid brotherhood,' Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Senior Col. Wu Qian told a press conference in February, when asked about possible fissures in relations. Cambodia's military needs the support. 'Cambodia currently lacks the ability to design and manufacture modern equipment for its armed forces,' the IISS report says. Bolstered by years of US support, the Royal Thai Air Force is well equipped, with at least 11 modern Swedish Gripen fighter jets and dozens of older, US-made F-16 and F-5 jets, according to the IISS. Cambodia has no combat-capable air force to speak of. On the ground, Thailand has dozens of battle tanks, including 60 modern, Chinese-made VT-4 tanks, and hundreds of older, US-made tanks. Cambodia has about 200 old Chinese- and Soviet-made tanks, the 'Military Balance' shows. The Thai army boasts more than 600 artillery pieces, including at least 56 powerful 155mm weapons and more than 550 105mm towed guns. Cambodia has only a dozen 155mm guns with around 400 smaller towed artillery pieces, according to IISS figures. In the air, the army has US-made Cobra attack helicopters as well as 18 US Black Hawk transports. Cambodia has only a few dozen older Soviet and Chinese transport helicopters. Hawaii-based military analyst Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, said that while Thailand has the numerical and qualitative military advantage, Cambodia has at least one thing in its favor – the actual land along the disputed border. 'Terrain favors access from Cambodian territory to the disputed area,' Schuster told CNN. And with Cambodian forces allegedly laying landmines and booby traps in the disputed area, Thailand can be expected to rely on longer-range weaponry, he said. 'The Royal Thai Air Force is superior and their special forces are superior,' Schuster said. 'I think the Thais will prefer to emphasize air power and long-range firepower in the conflict.'
Miami Herald
24-07-2025
- Miami Herald
How Thailand and Cambodia's Militaries Compare
At least 12 people, mostly civilians, have been killed in fresh clashes between Cambodia and Thailand, Thai authorities have said, as months of simmering tensions between the two South Asian countries boiled over on Thursday. Eleven civilians and one soldier were killed in artillery shelling, Thailand's health minister, Somsak Thepsuthin, said in a statement reported by Reuters. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet said he had called on the United Nations Security Council to address what he described as a "premeditated military aggression" by Thailand. Thailand said Cambodia had opened fire first. Bangkok and Phnom Penh have a long history of border disputes, and the recent flare in tensions was fuelled by the death of a Cambodian soldier in a contested area in May. A Thai soldier was seriously injured on July 16 after a mine in a disputed border area detonated. Thailand accused Cambodia of planting new mines along the border, which Cambodia denied. A second explosion on Wednesday injured another Thai soldier. Cambodian authorities again denied laying fresh explosives. Border crossings between the two neighbors have been limited for several weeks, and reports from both countries on Thursday indicated border clashes at multiple points where both sides stake a claim to territory. Thailand said it was sealing the border on Thursday. Cambodia's government said on Thursday it had downgraded diplomatic relations with Thailand to "the lowest level" after Thailand recalled its ambassador in Phnom Penh, expelled Cambodia's ambassador in Bangkok and limited diplomatic channels. Cambodia's Khmer news agency reported on Thursday the Cambodian military had shot down a Thai F-16. Both militaries had reported a Thai F-16 had targeted Cambodia. "We have used air power against military targets as planned," Thai army deputy spokesperson Richa Suksuwanon told the media, according to Reuters. Phnom Penh said Thailand had dropped two bombs on a road. Cambodia's government said Thai soldiers had climbed a temple close to the border and placed barbed wire on the site, before launching a drone over the area. Cambodia accused Thailand of firing on its troops and broadening attacks out to several other areas. How Do Cambodia's and Thailand's Militaries Compare? Cambodia's former leader, Hun Sen, reportedly said Phnom Penh was "fully prepared for combat," adding in a message directed at Bangkok: "Do not boast of your superior military power." "You will face the most severe retaliation," he added. Thailand has a "large, well funded military," the U.K.-based defense think tank, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said in early 2025 as it published its count of the world's armed forces. Thailand's defense budget for this year is just shy of $5.7 billion, according to the think tank, with Cambodia's weighing in much lower at $1.3 billion. Air Forces Bangkok's air force "is one of the best equipped and trained in Southeast Asia," the IISS said. Thailand has 112 combat-capable aircraft, the IISS said at the start of 2025, including 46 F-16s of different variants. Bangkok also has a handful of the fourth-generation Swedish Gripen jets. While not the latest generation of aircraft, known as fifth-generation jets - such as the F-35 and F-22 - well-maintained F-16s and Gripens are considered very capable aircraft. Thailand is in the process of phasing out its older F-16s for more Gripens. Thailand, in its 46,000-person strong air force, also has two Erieye airborne early warning aircraft that work alongside the Gripens. Cambodia does not have fighter jets in its 1,500-person-strong air force, but has 26 helicopters of different types. "The Thai Air Force has U.S. F-16 aircraft, which it used to strike Cambodian military sites on Wednesday with impunity, while Cambodia lacks operational fighter aircraft," said John Hemmings, deputy director for geopolitics at the U.K.-based Council on Geostrategy think tank. Land and Naval Forces Cambodia's army has roughly 75,000 personnel, with approximately 200 tanks, the IISS said. Around 50 of these main battle tanks are Chinese-made versions of the Soviet-era T-54, and more than 150 T-54s and T-55s. Phnom Penh has 70 of the BMP-1s, a type of Soviet-era amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicle that Russia and Ukraine have both deployed in eastern Europe. Thailand's army, with its 130,000 personnel plus nearly the same number of conscripts, had close to 400 main battle tanks, many of which are aged U.S.-made tanks. Bangkok also has an aircraft carrier and seven frigates, while Phnom Penh does not have a navy to speak of. "Thailand fields the most modern main battle tanks - including the VT4 from the People's Republic of China - while Cambodia relies heavily on the 1950s T-54,"Hemmings told Newsweek. "Both countries field artillery systems, both in terms of self-propelled missile rocket launchers and towed artillery," Hemmings added. "Cambodian systems are post-War like the BM-21 - with a few 1990s Chinese systems thrown in - while Thailand has a mixture of some recent U.S., Israeli, and Chinese systems." Related Articles Map Shows Where Thailand-Cambodia Border Clashes Are Taking PlaceChina Reacts to Deadly Thailand, Cambodia Border FightThailand, Cambodia Exchange Fire Around Ancient TemplesWatch World's Favorite Baby Hippo, Moo Deng, Celebrate Her First Birthday 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Politico
24-07-2025
- Politico
Pentagon suspends participation in think tank events
The move would sideline the Pentagon from national security dialogues that it has used for decades to advance its policy and explain the department's rationale. Former Defense Secretaries Jim Mattis, Mark Esper and Lloyd Austin have also used think tank events, such as the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Shangri-La Dialogue and the Reagan National Defense Forum, to give major policy speeches and hold sideline meetings with both allies and adversaries. The Pentagon's public affairs, general counsel and policy teams will review all requests for participation at events and will ask for officials' remarks and talking points in advance, according to the email. The directive, which took effect Tuesday, applies to all DOD military officers, civil servants and senior enlisted leaders. The Pentagon's public affairs team must approve any future events. 'In order to ensure the Department of Defense is not lending its name and credibility to organizations, forums, and events that run counter to the values of this administration, the Department's Office of Public Affairs will be conducting a thorough vetting of every event where Defense officials are invited to participate,' chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in an emailed response. It also appears to apply to Pentagon-led events such as Sea Air Space, which is hosted by the Navy League, the military service's largest veteran organization, and Modern Day Marine, a similar trade show for the Marine Corps, although public affairs offices inside the military were still seeking guidance on the directive. The effort to drastically cut the Defense Department's public presence on Washington's think tank circuit comes after the Pentagon said senior leaders would no longer be allowed to attend the Aspen summit, just a day before the gathering began. Navy Secretary John Phelan, Emil Michael, the Defense undersecretary for research and engineering, Defense Innovation Unit chief Doug Beck and several top military officials had been scheduled to speak.
