UK to continue to supply intelligence to Ukraine after US cutoff

The Guardian

06-03-2025

Britain will continue to supply intelligence to Ukraine, though the more limited capabilities on offer from London and other European countries will make it difficult to replace the flow halted from the US earlier this week.
The UK will also continue to supply its analysis of the raw data, sources said on Thursday, though in line with normal intelligence practice it will not simply pass on US information obtained via long-established sharing arrangements between the two countries.
'They are not as far reaching as US capabilities, not at the same scale and not able to take their place,' a former Whitehall insider said. But they will allow Ukraine to maintain some early warning from attack and a degree of deep strike capability into Russia.
Reconnaissance data collected from satellites, ground stations, surveillance aircraft such as Rivet Joint, and even covertly deployed ground forces is accumulated and shared with Ukraine in conjunction with open source material to enable damaging deep missile and drone strikes into Russia.
France also said publicly that it would continue to provide intelligence to Ukraine. Sebastien Lecornu, the country's defence minister, said that while the US decision would have a 'significant operational impact' Paris would continue to help with its 'sovereign intelligence'.
The French minister said the UK's position was 'more complicated' because its intelligence apparatus was more closely bound up with Washington – though British sources emphasised there had been a long history of competition as well as cooperation between the UK and US.
One expert suggested the US decision to halt its intelligence could make it easier for Russia to renew a stalled offensive towards Ukraine's second city. The Kremlin could 'move everything inside its borders near Kharkiv and attack again', Dr Jade McGlynn, of King's College London, said.
There are concerns Ukraine would struggle to detect the launch of bombers from Russian air bases and incoming missiles, though there was a warning on Wednesday before a missile attack on a hotel in the central city of Kryvyi Rih, which killed four and injured at least 32.
A defence expert said he believed the intelligence freeze meant Ukraine could no longer detect incoming Iskander-M ballistic missiles and their North Korean equivalents, KN-23s and KN-24s. Valeriy Ryabikh, the editor of the Defence Express consulting firm, said the US had jeopardised the safety of civilians with its decision.
However, Ryabikh suggested the cutoff would not significantly affect the situation on the frontline. 'We have our own intelligence officers, satellite services and agents in Russia. This is enough to strike stationary objects deep inside the Russian Federation,' he said.
The Institute for the Study of War said the US decision 'will damage Ukraine's ability to defend itself against ongoing Russian attacks', and gave examples of successful long-range strikes by the Ukrainian military that would prove harder to execute.
That included the bombing of an ammunition facility near Toropets, Tver oblast, overnight on 17-18 September 2024 which 'destroyed 'two to three months of Russia's ammunition supply' at a site that stored ballistic missiles, glide bombs and other artillery ammunition.
A day after the ban was announced by the CIA director, John Ratcliffe, another member of the Republican administration said the US decision was primarily political. Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, said the idea was 'sort of like hitting a mule with a two by four across the nose. You get their attention.'
Speaking at an event organised by the Council on Foreign Relations thinktank, Kellogg said the goal was to force Ukraine to 'engage in diplomatic activities' and to get them to set out 'their term sheet', or outline negotiating position, for a deal. 'So, more of anything, it's a forcing function,' he added.
Donald Trump has said repeatedly that he wants to bring about an end to the three-year war in Ukraine, and has held preliminary discussions with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, while at the same time pressuriing Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to peace negotiations. Senior Trump administration officials will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet Ukrainian officials next week, Fox News and Axios reported on Thursday.
On Monday, the US announced it would halt military aid for Ukraine after a meeting at the White House in which the intelligence -sharing ban was also agreed, though it did not start to be implemented until Wednesday.
There were reports that, after the supply of targeting data was cut, US-supplied Himars rocket systems were abruptly turned off. The change was also thought to affect longer-range Atacms missiles, though stocks of these are limited and it is unclear how many Ukraine had left.
Ukraine has only a small number of Himars launchers. But they have played a crucial role in the destruction of high-value Russian targets, such as ammunition dumps and logistics centres. The Kremlin has tried to hunt down Himars crews, who change locations frequently.
Ukraine's military intelligence organisation, the HUR, also relies on some foreign intelligence to carry out sabotage operations inside Russia and for real-time updates on the deployment of Russian bomber planes on air bases.
The agency is believed to be behind the killing of leading military figures, such as Lt Gen Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian army's chemical weapons division. In December a bomb taped to an electric scooter blew up outside his Moscow apartment block, killing him and an aide as they left the building.