Climate change impacting cyclones, Maha agri: Study
Nagpur: Rising sea surface temperatures are spurring severe to super cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea over the last two decades, finds a study, which also flagged increased adverse weather events in the latter part of North Indian Ocean because of climate change.
The joint study by Dr Rizwan Ahmed, IMD scientist at RMC Nagpur, Shahenaz Mulla, a meteorologist at Climate Research Services, IMD Pune, and Prof Sudhir Kumar Singh from K Banerjee Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Studies, University of Allahabad, revealed the escalating impact of climate change on tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean and their devastating effects on Maharashtra's agriculture.
"We found a troubling shift in cyclone patterns over the Arabian Sea driven by climate change. Cyclones are growing in intensity, lasting longer over land, and penetrating deeper inland, far beyond traditional coastal zones. This transformation is wreaking havoc on Maharashtra's agricultural sector, causing prolonged flooding, increased soil salinity, root stress, and widespread crop failure," said Dr Ahmed.
Titled "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Land-Falling Tropical Cyclones over the North Indian Ocean and Their Effects on Coastal Agriculture in Maharashtra", the research was recently published in the Scopus-indexed journal Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, recognised by the World Meteorological Organization and ESCAP's typhoon committee.
According to the study, a total of 44 severe or super cyclones occurred between 2001 and 2012 of the study period.
Data analysis revealed that 35 (80%) tropical cyclones were eye pattern, which usually take a severe form.
"Case studies of Cyclone Nisarga (2020) and Cyclone Tauktae (2021) highlight the scale of destruction, with Nisarga alone inflicting over Rs1,000 crore in damages, impacting 1.4 lakh homes, and ruining nearly 20,000 hectares of farmland in Raigad and Ratnagiri districts," Dr Ahmed said.
The research also shows a shift in the overland duration of tropical cyclones.
The Arabian Sea experienced 170 hours (7 days) of cyclones from 1982-2000, which increased to 367 hours (15.2 days) from 2001-21. Correspondingly, the cyclones reduced in the Bay of Bengal from 1295 to 1062, respectively, for the same periods.
"This study demonstrates that climate change is modifying the behaviour of tropical cyclones. Their increasing strength and inland reach directly threaten coastal agricultural livelihoods in states like Maharashtra.
There is an urgent need to strengthen early warning systems, adopt salt-tolerant crop varieties, and develop comprehensive coastal land-use management policies," Dr Ahmed said.
Mulla added, "Vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) quantified evidence of sharp declines in vegetation health following cyclone events. Our findings have significant policy implications for agricultural planning and the restructuring of crop insurance schemes in cyclone-prone regions."
The research utilised advanced tools like INSAT-3D/3DR satellite data, Doppler weather radar, and forecasting models to track cyclone paths and intensities. Vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) quantified post-cyclone crop and soil damage.
Study Highlights
- A marked increase in cyclone intensity, duration over land, and inland penetration, which now regularly extends far beyond traditional coastal impact zones
- These changes in cyclone behaviour are having cascading effects on agriculture, including prolonged flooding, increased soil salinity, root stress, and crop failure in regions that were previously less exposed
- Case studies of Cyclone Nisarga (2020) and Cyclone Tauktae (2021) illustrate how these systems are no longer limited to coastal disruptions but are severely affecting interior districts
- Cyclone Nisarga alone caused over Rs1,000 crore in damages, affected more than 1.4 lakh homes, and damaged nearly 20,000 hectare farmland in Maharashtra's Raigad and Ratnagiri districts
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