Why aid agencies are forecasting a sharp rise in forced displacement by 2026

Arab News

08-04-2025

DUBAI: Ongoing conflicts will force an additional 6.7 million people worldwide from their homes by the end of 2026, with Sudan alone accounting for nearly a third of the new displacements, according to the Danish Refugee Council's latest predictions.
The agency's Global Displacement Forecast Report 2025 revealed a massive spike in the number of expected forced displacements this year to 4.2 million, the highest such prediction since 2021. Another 2.5 million are expected to be forced to flee violence in 2026.
'We live in an age of war and impunity, and civilians are paying the heaviest price,' said Charlotte Slente, secretary-general of the Danish Refugee Council.
'Our AI-driven modeling paints a tragic picture: 6.7 million people displaced over the next two years. These are not cold statistics. These are families forced to flee their homes, carrying next to nothing and searching for water, food and shelter.'
DRC's Foresight model, developed in partnership with IBM, predicts displacement trends by analyzing 148 indicators based on economic, security, political, environmental and societal factors, across 27 countries that represent 93 percent of all global displacement.
It is a machine-learning model created to predict forced displacement at the national level over the next one-to-three years. It is built on open-source data from a variety of sources, including the World Bank, UN agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and academic institutions.
According to DRC, more than half of the forecasts produced by the model for displacements in a coming year have been less than 10 percent off the actual figures.
Sudan is experiencing the biggest displacement and hunger crisis in the world, and DRC projections suggest it will continue to represent the most urgent humanitarian crisis. By the end of 2026, another 2.1 million people there are expected be displaced, adding to the 12.6 million already forced to move within the country or to neighboring nations including Chad, Egypt and South Sudan.
Since April 2023, Sudan has been locked in a brutal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Their power struggle began in Khartoum and rapidly escalated into an all-out war that engulfed major cities and cut off humanitarian corridors, sparking the world's worst displacement crisis. Entire urban areas have been emptied, and civilians caught in the crossfire face hunger, violence and sexual assault.
The DRC report warns that the internal dynamics of the war — fragmented front lines, shifting alliances and a lack of viable negotiations — make any resolution unlikely in the short term. Insecurity is rampant and basic services have collapsed in large parts of the country.
The effects of the conflict on civilians are staggering. Once-bustling cities such as Khartoum and Nyala have become battlefields from which residents have been forced to flee several times. In Darfur, reports of ethnic cleansing have resurfaced, raising the specter of the genocide that occurred there two decades ago.
'The situation in Sudan is quite intense and tragic,' Massimo Marghinotti, a DRC logistician stationed in Port Sudan since September 2024, said in a first-person report filed from the field.
'The fighting has spread across various regions, and civilians are caught in the crossfire. We see how bombings and fighting and targeting of civilians lead to severe displacement and famine.
'Millions have fled their homes, and they literally have nothing. No shelter, no water, no access to food or basic health. I have been working in this field for more than 25 years and seen a lot, but this humanitarian crisis is severe, and the suffering in Sudan is heartbreaking.'
Yet despite the scale of the suffering, international attention, and funding, has been minimal. According to the UN, more than 24 million people in Sudan, about half of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance. But as of March this year, aid organizations had received less than 5 percent of the funds they need to respond. Most agencies are forced to operate with limited access, risk attacks and face bureaucratic obstacles.
While war remains the single largest driver of forced displacements, the DRC's report also highlights the role of economic and climate-related factors. In countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, millions have been uprooted by a combination of droughts, floods and political turmoil.
In Sudan, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. The country has experienced recurring floods and failed harvests, exacerbating food insecurity and causing intercommunal tensions to rise. Many of the people displaced by war are now living in fragile areas already struggling with environmental shocks.
The effects of the crisis in Sudan extend far beyond its own borders. According to figures released in February by the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, Egypt has received more than 1.5 million Sudanese refugees, straining urban infrastructure and pushing thousands into destitution.
Meanwhile, about 759,058 people from Sudan have fled across the border to Chad, 240,000 to Libya, 67,189 to Uganda, and 42,490 to Ethiopia. South Sudan, itself fragile, has absorbed more than 718,453 people, although the majority of those are returnees who had been living in camps in Sudan.
Host countries, many of them facing their own economic and political challenges, struggle to keep pace with the needs of the displaced. In Chad, for example, water and food shortages are acute. In South Sudan, many returnees face ethnic tensions and limited shelter. Across the region, humanitarian operations are underfunded.
Displacement is no longer a short-term phenomenon. For millions of Sudanese, in common with others caught up in protracted crises, the reality is now one of long-term exile, instability and marginalization.
In Sudan, many internally displaced persons are now trapped in limbo, unable to return home but lacking the resources or legal status to settle elsewhere. Refugees who do reach neighboring countries often end up in overcrowded camps with limited mobility. Children miss years of school. Families are separated indefinitely.
While Sudan represents the largest and most acute displacement crisis, it is far from the only one. The DRC's 2025 forecast also highlights hot spots such as Afghanistan, Myanmar, Syria, the Sahel, Venezuela and Yemen.
The organization called for a three-pronged approach to address the crisis: stronger political engagement to help resolve conflicts; greater investment in climate adaptation and resilience efforts; and a humanitarian system that is more predictable and better funded.
The US, formerly the world's largest donor nation, recently terminated 83 percent of USAID contracts. Other major donors, including the UK and Germany, are also cutting back on aid they provide. These withdrawals come at a time when humanitarian needs are at an all-time high.
'Millions are facing starvation and displacement, and just as they need us most, wealthy nations are slashing aid. It's a betrayal of the most vulnerable,' said Slente.
'We're in the middle of a global 'perfect storm:' record displacement, surging needs and devastating funding cuts. Major donors are abandoning their duty, leaving millions to suffer. This is more than a crisis. It is a moral failure.'