Gamblers bet millions on who will be the next Pope

Independent

08-05-2025

While cardinals take part in the solemn conclave to elect the next pope, a less traditional activity is gaining momentum: betting on who will lead the world's 1.4 billion Catholics.
From online platforms to friendly wagers, guessing the next pontiff has become a global pastime, surpassing even major sporting events in popularity.
The intrigue surrounding the papal election has fuelled a surge in betting activity, according to experts and participants.
Sam Eaton, UK manager for Oddschecker, a platform analysing odds across various markets, noted the unprecedented global interest.
"There's a huge level of interest globally," he said.
"I don't think we've had a market like this where we've had so many countries interested in seeing odds."
The papal election's betting popularity has even eclipsed the Europa League and Formula One races, according to Oddschecker data.
Around the world, thousands of bets on the next pope
Hundreds of thousands of people from some 140 countries have visited Oddschecker to review each cardinal's chances of becoming the next pope, Mr Eaton said. He noted special eagerness in the United Kingdom, Ireland and the United States.
In the UK, about £30,000 (almost US$40,000) had been wagered with one leading online betting platform as of last week, Mr Eaton said – a far cry from £1.2 million on the singing contest Eurovision but still noteworthy as a trend, with the conclave days away.
'Betting on the next pope is definitely a niche market in the grand scheme of things, but it generates global interest,' said Lee Phelps, a spokesman for William Hill, one of the UK's biggest bookmakers.
'Since April 21, we've taken thousands of bets, and it's the busiest of all our non-sports betting markets,' said Mr Phelps, who expected a surge in interest once the conclave began on Wednesday.
Betting on elections, papal conclaves and all manner of global events is almost a tradition of its own in the UK, but such betting is not legal in the United States. BetMGM, one of the world's top sports-betting companies, said it would not have any bets up.
But Mr Eaton noted that in the unregulated, illegal space, one of the biggest sites had US$10 million wagered so far in pope bets.
Fantasy 'teams' of cardinals
In Italy, betting on the papal election – and all religious events – is forbidden.
Some people in Rome are making friendly, informal wagers – the equivalent of $20 on a favorite cardinal, with the loser pledging to host a dinner or buy a pizza night out.
Others are turning to an online game called Fantapapa, or Fantasy Pope, which mimics popular fantasy football and soccer leagues. More than 60,000 people are playing, each choosing 11 cardinals – as if for a soccer team – whom they believe have the best shot at becoming the next pope.
They also draft the top contender, or captain. As with online wagers, the No. 1 choice for fantasy players has been Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, closely followed by Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle.
'It's a really fun game to play with friends and have a laugh,' Italian student Federico La Rocca, 23, said.
'Initially my dad sent it to me ironically, but now that it's going to be the conclave, I decided to have a go and try it.'
Mr La Rocca said he chose Cardinal Tagle because 'he looks like a nice guy and fun person'.
Players' selections determine the number of points they rake in. But what's the jackpot?
'Eternal glory,' joked Mauro Vanetti, who created the game when Francis was hospitalised earlier this year.
Mr Vanetti said he and his co-founder are against gambling, but they wanted to create something fun around the event.
'It seems like in Italy there's a certain inquisitiveness about the mechanisms of the Catholic hierarchy, but it's a critical curiosity, a sarcastic and playful curiosity, so we were interested in this jesting spirit for such a solemn event,' Mr Vanetti said.
'In some ways it deflates the sacredness, in a nonaggressive way.'
Some concerns about betting on a solemn event
Beyond simply picking who the next pope will be, players and gamblers also can guess how many tries it will take the cardinals to choose the leader, which day of the week he'll be elected, what new name he will decide on, or where his priorities will land on the progressive-conservative scale.
While the game and some of the bets have a novel or fun nature, anti-gambling advocates have raised overall concerns about legal gaming and the growing popularity of wagering on all manner of events.
A study published last fall found that 10 per cent of young men in the US show behaviour that indicates a gambling problem, which is a rising concern in other parts of the world, too.
And for gambling around the papacy in general, some have raised religious concerns. Catholic teaching doesn't go so far as to call games of chance or wagers sinful, but its Catechism warns that 'the passion for gambling risks becoming an enslavement'.
It says gambling becomes 'morally unacceptable' if it gravely affects a person's livelihood.