Tariff worries hanging over investors despite the market rally
00:00
Speaker A
US stock futures pointing lower here to begin the week after the S&P 500 recorded its longest streak of gains since 2004. Now the gains come as trade tensions ease with President Trump saying deals are coming but is the market's trade anxiety behind it? That's the big question. Joining us now to discuss, we've got Michael O'Rourke, Jones Trading Chief market strategist here. Great to have you back on the program with us and taking the time this morning. So Michael, as you kind of read through the data that you and your team are digesting, is the worst behind us? Is this rally, at least in the interim period of time, something that is more solidified and a longer-term trend that we should be watching for?
01:37
Michael O'Rourke
I think the rally is more of a, a hope rally. Uh there's been a lot of speculation in the past few weeks. Obviously, President Trump said he is going to reduce the China tariffs. Uh last week we got headlines about a thaw with China. Over the weekend the president said they are finally talking. But um the situation remains. We still have a lot of tariffs in place and uh we haven't had any, you know, substantive progress made yet. Friday will mark uh the 30-day mark of the 90-day postponement and 10% cap on reciprocal tariffs. And we're looking at a situation where in Q1, um a lot of companies stockpiled inventory ahead of liberation day. And again, if we don't see some tariffs come down quickly, uh I think we're going to see some notable hiccups by the end of the month. So I think the uh the equity market's a little bit ahead of itself in this rally.
03:37
Speaker A
Yeah, talk to me about this rally Michael because I was speaking with Ed Al-Hussainy of Columbia Threadneedle about this and he just said, well, investors can't stay mad for too long. That's what's driving this sort of recovery from that April 2nd uh so-called Liberation Day. If that's the case then why, then, then, where do we go from here? How much conviction do you have that stocks can continue to go up?
04:34
Michael O'Rourke
Uh I well I think what we really need to see is, is the, where the China tariffs are going to come down to and this, you know, when, when the president said he's going to set them, which I'm take, I'm interpreting to be sometime this week. On Wednesday we're going to see uh that's the end of the comment period, uh the public comment period for the section 232 investigations for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. So after that you would expect we're going to see announcements regarding those tariffs. So again, and then you have the, you know, the media tariffs about uh movies made outside the United States being tariffed at 100%. So there's still a lot of tariff news and potential negatives ahead of us here that I think when those headlines start to flow again, I think you're going to see investors begin to express concern. I think a lot of the rally has been people, you know, repositioned after the pause or the postponement of the reciprocal tariffs, and we're just drifting now and in kind of a holding period or just waiting.
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