Afghan Media Outlet: 'Will Israel Become Depopulated?'; Israel Assumed Iran War Would Be A Short-Term Conflict That Would Conclude With A Lightning-Fast Collapse Of The Islamic Republic

Memri

11-07-2025

Recently, a Dari-language Telegram channel Bazgasht News published an article titled "Will Israel Become Depopulated?" arguing that the 12-day war with Iran has severely strained Israel's economy, infrastructure, and public morale, with military spending reaching up to $300 million per day. The article asserts that Israeli military doctrine presumed that the 12-day war would quickly cause the collapse of the Iranian regime.
"On the contrary, Israel's attack on Iran caused the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people to oppose Israel, except for a minority of supporters of the Pahlavi monarchy who are optimistic about Israel, because usually a foreign war brings internal cohesion," the article reads. The piece seems to have been written when the Iran-Israel war was yet to end.
Following is a translation:
"The [October 7, 2023] Hamas Jihadist Attack... That Killed More Than 1,200 Israelis, Further Reinforced The Perception That Israel Will Never Be A Safe Place To Live"
"Will Israel Become Depopulated?
"Author: Shafiqullah Shafiq
"While both sides of the war (the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Israeli regime) are facing detrimental economic consequences, according to media estimates, Israel's military spending is estimated at $200 to $300 million per day. In addition to the huge costs of the war, the destruction of infrastructure, the closure of economic ports and businesses have caused the severe devastation of the Israeli economy and situation.
"On the other hand, Iran, while also suffering from crippling sanctions, will experience more problems as the war continues. But what weakens Israel's ability to continue the war are its rootless social and human structures.
"On the one hand, Israel has a small population and a very limited geography; on the other hand, almost all of its citizens are dual citizens. The continuation of the war and the increasing dangers create the impression: Is a secret living [in bunkers] and violence worth staying there [in Israel]?
"The Hamas jihadist attack... [of October 7, 2023], which killed more than 1,200 Israelis, further reinforced the perception that Israel will never be a safe place to live, even though the Israeli regime has brutally killed more than 50,000 Palestinian women, children, and civilians in retaliation."
"With The Escalation Of The War With The Islamic Republic Of Iran And The Resulting Devastation, The Question Has Become Even More Serious: How Can Israel Become A Safe Place?"
"However, the main source of Israeli anger so far stems from the serious question of survival, because sufficient guarantees for the survival and lasting trust of a secure Israel cannot simply be reversed. In recent days, with the escalation of the war with the Islamic Republic of Iran and the resulting devastation, the question has become even more serious: How can Israel become a safe place?
"Security has not been achieved with anger and blood, fire and gunpowder, for 70 years; security has not been guaranteed with advanced military equipment and the Iron Dome. Therefore, in the first days of the war, the Israeli government symbolically tried to highlight its main political and national weakness with extensive media coverage in order to return its citizens from Cyprus so that the enemy would not use this gap to launch psychological warfare.
"However, the reality on the ground, albeit censored, when reflected in the English-language media, shows that the motivation to live in Israel exists only among the religious and military elite. Once Israel's borders are opened, the land will be severely emptied as the recent wars continue.
"For this reason, in most cases, Israeli military doctrine emphasizes strong and decisive attacks in the early days. Even the perception of the war with Iran, like Israel's six-day attack on the Arab states and Egypt in 1967, was analyzed as a short-term [conflict] that would come to a lightning-fast conclusion, that is, the Islamic Republic would collapse due to a military leadership vacuum, internal disputes, and pressure from the Iranian people, or, as President [Donald] Trump put it, 'unconditional surrender.'"
"The Winner Of A War Is The One Who Endures It The Longest – Typically, Non-Democratic Governments, Which Are Less Subject To Public Opinion, Are More Patient And Persistent Than Democratic Governments"
"On the contrary, Israel's attack on Iran caused the overwhelming majority of the Iranian people to oppose Israel, except for a minority of supporters of the Pahlavi monarchy who are optimistic about Israel, because usually a foreign war brings internal cohesion.
"On the other hand, it is understood that the military intervention of the United States of America alongside the Israeli military can be interpreted more as aiming to rebuild the morale and collective psyche of the residents of Israel. And on the other hand, it may pave the way for an end to the war, unless the Islamic Republic launches more widespread attacks on U.S. regional bases.
"Finally, there is a famous adage in international relations: The winner of a war is the one who endures it the most. Typically, non-democratic governments, which are less subject to public opinion, are more patient and persistent than democratic governments."
Source: Telegram, June 24, 2025.