Liver cancer cases could double by 2050. A new study says 60% are preventable
A new analysis published by an expert panel on liver cancer has shown that three out of five liver cancer cases worldwide are linked to preventable risk factors.
These include viral hepatitis, alcohol consumption, and an increasingly common but often overlooked threat: obesity-related liver disease.
Without urgent intervention, the number of liver cancer cases is expected to nearly double from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million by 2050, with annual deaths rising from 760,000 to 1.37 million.
But experts argue that millions of lives can be saved with targeted prevention and policy reforms.
Liver cancer "is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately 5 per cent to 30 per cent,' said Jian Zhou, a professor at Fudan University in China and chair of the Lancet commission.
'We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend,' Zhou said in a statement.
A shifting landscape of risk
Traditionally associated with hepatitis infections and heavy alcohol use, liver cancer is now being increasingly driven by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), once commonly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
MASLD is one of the most common liver conditions in Europe, affecting up to 25 per cent of the adult population, Beatrice Credi of the European Liver Patients' Association (ELPA) told Euronews Health.
'It is crucial to stress that while these risk factors are prevalent, they are often preventable or manageable with appropriate intervention,' she added, emphasising the importance of education as well as robust public health campaigns.
This long-term liver condition is linked to obesity and poor metabolic health. Its more severe form, known as MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), is the fastest-growing cause of liver cancer globally.
Related
Global obesity rates are surging as people gain weight younger and faster than in the past
The Lancet commission projects that liver cancers linked to MASH will increase by 35 per cent, rising from 8 per cent of cases in 2022 to 11 per cent by 2050.
Liver cancers related to alcohol are also expected to rise modestly. Meanwhile, cases caused by hepatitis B and C are predicted to decline slightly thanks to vaccination and improved treatment efforts.
Numbers are particularly concerning in high-income countries, where obesity rates are soaring.
In the United States, MASLD is expected to affect more than half of all adults by 2040, dramatically increasing liver cancer risk.
According to Dr Hashem El-Serag, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, the profile of the disease is evolving.
'Liver cancer was once thought to occur mainly in patients with viral hepatitis or alcohol-related liver disease,' he said.
But with obesity on the rise, it is becoming an increasingly prominent risk factor, largely due to growing cases of excess liver fat.
The prevention opportunity
Despite the grim projections, the Lancet commission offers a glimmer of hope: the potential of prevention.
If new liver cancer cases are reduced by 2 per cent to 5 per cent each year, it could prevent up to 17 million new cases and save as many as 15 million lives by 2050.
Related
EU can dodge millions of cancers by hitting tobacco, alcohol reduction targets, study claims
Achieving that would require a multi-pronged global effort, including expanding hepatitis B vaccination and universal adult HBV screening, as well as tackling obesity and alcohol misuse through taxes, warning labels, and better food and beverage policies.
The Lancet commission also suggests integrating liver screening into routine care for people with obesity, diabetes, and heart disease and investing in public education and early detection tools.
'As three in five cases of liver cancer are linked to preventable risk factors ... there is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of liver cancer, and save lives,' said Stephen Chan, lead author of the study and a professor ar the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
A global call to action
In Europe, recent policy shifts have increasingly emphasised prevention and early detection.
The European Union's Beating Cancer Plan aims to achieve 95 per cent coverage for childhood hepatitis B vaccination and screening of pregnant women by 2030.
It also encourages healthier lifestyle choices and aims to reduce exposure to known risk factors such as alcohol, tobacco, obesity, and diabetes.
Related
Weight-loss drugs like Wegovy could help serious liver condition that has no cure-all treatment
A policy recommendation issued by the European Commission in January called for expanded uptake of preventive vaccines (specifically HPV and hepatitis B) and improved monitoring of vaccine coverage rates.
But in the fight against liver cancer, the EU must also confront a less visible but equally powerful force: the commercial determinants of health, said ELPA's Beatrice Credi.
'Industries that profit from the sale of alcohol, unhealthy foods, and tobacco play a significant role in driving some of the liver cancer risk factors. Our policymakers must prioritise public health,' she told Euronews Health.
She noted, however, that policies aimed at regulating these commercial influences remain weak or inconsistently enforced across the EU, with the only exception of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages.
Related
Millions in Europe unknowingly living with hepatitis, health authorities warn
Prevention alone is not enough.
As more people are now living with liver cancer than ever before, the Lancet commission stressed the urgent need for improved care, earlier diagnosis, and better support for patients—especially in regions such as Africa and Asia, where the disease burden is highest and health care resources are limited.
But Valérie Paradis, a professor at Beaujon Hospital in France, suggested effective prevention could also help ease that burden.
'Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies,' Paradis said.
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Yahoo
15 hours ago
- Yahoo
Liver cancer cases could double by 2050. A new study says 60% are preventable
Liver cancer is on the rise, but experts say it doesn't have to be this way. A new analysis published by an expert panel on liver cancer has shown that three out of five liver cancer cases worldwide are linked to preventable risk factors. These include viral hepatitis, alcohol consumption, and an increasingly common but often overlooked threat: obesity-related liver disease. Without urgent intervention, the number of liver cancer cases is expected to nearly double from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million by 2050, with annual deaths rising from 760,000 to 1.37 million. But experts argue that millions of lives can be saved with targeted prevention and policy reforms. Liver cancer "is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately 5 per cent to 30 per cent,' said Jian Zhou, a professor at Fudan University in China and chair of the Lancet commission. 'We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend,' Zhou said in a statement. A shifting landscape of risk Traditionally associated with hepatitis infections and heavy alcohol use, liver cancer is now being increasingly driven by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), once commonly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. MASLD is one of the most common liver conditions in Europe, affecting up to 25 per cent of the adult population, Beatrice Credi of the European Liver Patients' Association (ELPA) told Euronews Health. 'It is crucial to stress that while these risk factors are prevalent, they are often preventable or manageable with appropriate intervention,' she added, emphasising the importance of education as well as robust public health campaigns. This long-term liver condition is linked to obesity and poor metabolic health. Its more severe form, known as MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), is the fastest-growing cause of liver cancer globally. Related Global obesity rates are surging as people gain weight younger and faster than in the past The Lancet commission projects that liver cancers linked to MASH will increase by 35 per cent, rising from 8 per cent of cases in 2022 to 11 per cent by 2050. Liver cancers related to alcohol are also expected to rise modestly. Meanwhile, cases caused by hepatitis B and C are predicted to decline slightly thanks to vaccination and improved treatment efforts. Numbers are particularly concerning in high-income countries, where obesity rates are soaring. In the United States, MASLD is expected to affect more than half of all adults by 2040, dramatically increasing liver cancer risk. According to Dr Hashem El-Serag, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, the profile of the disease is evolving. 'Liver cancer was once thought to occur mainly in patients with viral hepatitis or alcohol-related liver disease,' he said. But with obesity on the rise, it is becoming an increasingly prominent risk factor, largely due to growing cases of excess liver fat. The prevention opportunity Despite the grim projections, the Lancet commission offers a glimmer of hope: the potential of prevention. If new liver cancer cases are reduced by 2 per cent to 5 per cent each year, it could prevent up to 17 million new cases and save as many as 15 million lives by 2050. Related EU can dodge millions of cancers by hitting tobacco, alcohol reduction targets, study claims Achieving that would require a multi-pronged global effort, including expanding hepatitis B vaccination and universal adult HBV screening, as well as tackling obesity and alcohol misuse through taxes, warning labels, and better food and beverage policies. The Lancet commission also suggests integrating liver screening into routine care for people with obesity, diabetes, and heart disease and investing in public education and early detection tools. 'As three in five cases of liver cancer are linked to preventable risk factors ... there is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of liver cancer, and save lives,' said Stephen Chan, lead author of the study and a professor ar the Chinese University of Hong Kong. A global call to action In Europe, recent policy shifts have increasingly emphasised prevention and early detection. The European Union's Beating Cancer Plan aims to achieve 95 per cent coverage for childhood hepatitis B vaccination and screening of pregnant women by 2030. It also encourages healthier lifestyle choices and aims to reduce exposure to known risk factors such as alcohol, tobacco, obesity, and diabetes. Related Weight-loss drugs like Wegovy could help serious liver condition that has no cure-all treatment A policy recommendation issued by the European Commission in January called for expanded uptake of preventive vaccines (specifically HPV and hepatitis B) and improved monitoring of vaccine coverage rates. But in the fight against liver cancer, the EU must also confront a less visible but equally powerful force: the commercial determinants of health, said ELPA's Beatrice Credi. 'Industries that profit from the sale of alcohol, unhealthy foods, and tobacco play a significant role in driving some of the liver cancer risk factors. Our policymakers must prioritise public health,' she told Euronews Health. She noted, however, that policies aimed at regulating these commercial influences remain weak or inconsistently enforced across the EU, with the only exception of taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages. Related Millions in Europe unknowingly living with hepatitis, health authorities warn Prevention alone is not enough. As more people are now living with liver cancer than ever before, the Lancet commission stressed the urgent need for improved care, earlier diagnosis, and better support for patients—especially in regions such as Africa and Asia, where the disease burden is highest and health care resources are limited. But Valérie Paradis, a professor at Beaujon Hospital in France, suggested effective prevention could also help ease that burden. 'Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies,' Paradis said.
Scientific American
2 days ago
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Heatstroke and Extreme Heat can Hurt Health in the Long-Term, Too
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Heat's Lasting Tolls on the Body On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Heatstroke typically happens when internal body temperature rises above 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 degrees Celsius) and the heart can no longer maintain a stable internal body temperature. Blood oxygen levels decrease, circulation begins to fail, and an inflammatory response kicks in. While most people who recover from heatstroke feel back to normal within two days, heat can have insidious effects that linger in many parts of the body, including the kidneys, heart, brain and perhaps even the immune system. Extreme or prolonged heat exposure over the course of days or weeks can be particularly dangerous for people with preexisting health conditions. For example, a 2024 study in the Lancet followed the health of people with chronic kidney disease living in the hottest countries—places with temperatures of 86 degree F (30 degrees C) or higher for more than 10.5 percent of the year. Those individuals experienced up to an 8 percent additional drop in kidney function each year compared with those living in temperate climates. 'Heat affects health more deeply than we often realize and not just during heat waves.' —Vivekanand Jha, nephrologist, George Institute for Global Health Even for healthy individuals without preexisting conditions, extreme heat exposure might wreak havoc on the brain. Heatstroke in particular has been associated with specific types of long-term cognitive impairment, including aphasia, and damage to neurons in the cerebellum, hippocampus and midbrain. Little is known about the lingering effects on the brain, but this neuron damage could be associated with headaches, motor speech disorders and lack of muscle coordination observed in some heatstroke survivors. Heat may have lasting negative effects on learning outcomes in young people, according to a review study published on Wednesday in PLOS Climate. Using a dataset of nearly 14.5 million students across 61 countries, researchers found that long-term heat exposure especially weakens students' learning of complex subjects, including mathematics. The good news is that air-conditioning and ventilation seem to mitigate this heat-associated learning loss. The heart also seems to undergo lingering stress after heatstroke. Studies have shown that previously healthy people have an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases —including ischemic heart disease, heart failure and atrial fibrillation—after experiencing heatstroke. Heart dysfunction appears to be a leading cause of heatstroke-induced deaths in the long term. How to Stay Safe in the Heat Despite the valid long-term concerns over heatstroke, research has shown that getting some exposure to heat can prove helpful for the average healthy person as long as it doesn't escalate, says Jennifer Vanos, a biometeorologist at Arizona State University. 'It actually can make us more resistant to heat,' she says. 'Physiologically, by safely exposing ourselves, we can become more acclimatized.' Some conditions, such as combined high heat and humidity, however, are often too extreme for people to safely adapt to. There are many tips and tricks to avoid overheating. 'I really try to get people to better notice how the heat makes them feel at different intensities and when doing different activities—essentially getting people to be more perceptive of their own thermal tolerance and comfort in the heat,' Vanos says. When you start feeling overheated, splashing water on your face or dipping just your feet in a cool bath can allow more heat to either evaporate into the air or transfer into the water. Saving physical activity for the early morning or late evening can help you avoid the strongest midday sun, and taking breaks to rest for five to 10 minutes will keep your body temperature from hitting a dangerous peak. Keeping your house cool by using blackout curtains or efficient combinations of fans and air-conditioning can also go a long way in preventing extreme heat exposure. On a broader scale, advocating for changes in urban planning, health care and worker protections could help combat extreme heat's long-term damage. 'Given that climate change is expected to worsen, it is increasingly important for everyone to be aware of this threat to human health and take appropriate steps to mitigate its impact now at the individual household and community levels,' Jha says.
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‘Clinical Obesity' Definition Shifts Obesity Prevalence
The adoption of the new 'clinical obesity' definition alters prevalence estimates of obesity in many parts of the world compared with BMI-based definitions, new data suggested. In January 2025, a Lancet Commission proposed that the diagnosis of obesity first be made via confirmation of excess adiposity using measures such as waist circumference or waist-to-hip ratio in addition to BMI. Next, a clinical assessment of signs and symptoms of organ dysfunction due to obesity and/or functional limitations determines whether the individual has the disease 'clinical obesity' or 'preclinical obesity,' a condition of health risk but not an illness itself. That definition, although endorsed by more than 75 professional medical organizations, has proved controversial, with a commonly cited concern that people in the 'preclinical obesity' category might be denied needed care. But the Lancet authors counter that the 'preclinical' obesity category should be treated as a health risk factor, no differently than hypertension or dyslipidemia. A new analysis of nationally representative surveys from 56 mostly low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) showed that application of a modified version of the 'clinical obesity' definition would reduce obesity prevalence by more than 50% in some regions. It was published on July 24, 2025, in PLOS Global Public Health . 'Our results emphasize the need to carefully consider how obesity is defined in population surveillance to ensure its relevance to health outcomes. While the clinical obesity framework offers a more precise measure of obesity-related disease burden, its implementation in routine surveillance will require further adaptation to overcome data availability challenges,' the authors wrote. Lead author Rodrigo M. Carrillo-Larco, MD, PhD, of the Department of Global Health at Emory University, Atlanta, told Medscape Medical News that there is a need for 'agreement on whether the definition has to change and for what purposes so that the right tools and specific definitions are in place. If for clinical purposes, what definition should be used to start pharmacologic treatment, for claims and reimbursement, and for risk stratification of other diseases?' In the paper, Carrillo-Larco and colleagues express the concern that with the new definition, 'there is little to no opportunity for primary prevention of clinical obesity, as its definition already includes a cardiometabolic condition that most likely warrants secondary prevention or treatment.' However, Lancet Commission Chair Francesco Rubino, MD, professor and chair of metabolic and bariatric surgery at King's College London, London, England, told Medscape Medical News that this perception is incorrect. 'Clinical obesity represents only a subset of the broader obesity spectrum. Total obesity prevalence should include both clinical and preclinical obesity.' Added Lancet Commission member Ricardo Cohen, MD, director of the Center for Obesity and Diabetes, Oswaldo Cruz German Hospital, São Paulo, Brazil, 'The published paper demonstrates that prevalence estimates shift because the clinical definition targets those with higher medical need and not because fewer people require care. This is about better risk stratification, not exclusion.' Clinical Obesity Prevalence Differs From BMI-Only Obesity The study included nationally representative data from the World Health Organization's STEPS Survey for a total of 142,250 people in 56 countries in six world regions, including Africa (n = 49,438 from 18 countries), the Americas ( n = 3083 from one country), the Eastern Mediterranean (n = 19,292 from nine countries), Europe (n = 17,536 from seven countries), Southeast Asia (n = 27,334 from six countries), and the Western Pacific ( n = 25,567 from 15 countries). Carrillo-Larco told Medscape Medical News that LMICs were sampled because 'obesity may impose a greater burden in LMICs, given the limitations in access to treatment and counseling for obesity as well as for related comorbidities.' The clinical obesity definition used for the study included objective measures of weight, height, waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol. The Lancet definition includes a longer list of conditions, but the authors note that those data are not routinely available in many LMICs. Rubino said this could lead to an underestimate of the true prevalence of obesity. On the other hand, Carrillo-Larco and colleagues noted that the lack of such data in many countries represents a limitation of the definition. At the national level, the prevalence of clinical obesity in men ranged from less than 1% in Timor-Leste, Rwanda, Malawi, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Cambodia to 29% in American Samoa, the Cook Islands, and Tokelau. In women, clinical obesity prevalence was as low as ≤ 1% in Vietnam, Timor-Leste, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Cambodia, and as high as 28% in American Samoa and Tuvalu. Among men, the age-standardized prevalence of clinical obesity was < 10% in 41 countries, mostly in Africa (18/41). Among women, the age-standardized prevalence of clinical obesity was less than 10% in 30 countries, also mostly in Africa (14/30). The largest shift in prevalence occurred in Malawi, with BMI-only obesity in 0.7% vs clinical obesity in 0.2%, a relative reduction of 67.7%. However, the absolute change was less than 1 percentage point. Countries experiencing both a relative change of ≥ 10% and an absolute change of ≥ 10 percentage points were Nauru (-35.5% relative change and 13.3 percentage points in absolute change; prevalence of clinical obesity was 24.2% and that of BMI-only obesity was 37.5%) and Qatar (-49.2% and 10.3; prevalence of clinical obesity was 10.6% and that of BMI-only obesity was 20.9%). In women, the relative change in prevalence exceeded 50% in Malawi (relative reduction of 52.8%; 5.6% for BMI-only obesity and 2.6% for clinical obesity) and Rwanda (-52.4%; 2.7% for BMI-only obesity and 1.3% for clinical obesity). In Malawi and Rwanda, the absolute change was 2.9 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. Countries with both relative and absolute changes exceeding 10% and 10 percentage points, respectively, were in the Western Pacific (American Samoa, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, and Tuvalu). Rubino told Medscape Medical News , 'Distinguishing clinical from preclinical obesity doesn't reduce urgency — it ensures timely treatment for those who need it and directs prevention toward those for whom it remains possible.' Regardless, Carrillo-Larco said, 'Clinicians should always consider obesity as a multifactorial condition for which nonpharmacologic conditions are very important and social determinants of health play a key role.' The authors received no specific funding. Rubino declared having received research grants from Ethicon (Johnson & Johnson), Novo Nordisk, and Medtronic; consulting fees from Morphic Medical; and speaking honoraria from Medtronic, Ethicon, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Amgen. He has also served (unpaid) as a member of the scientific advisory board for Keyron and as a member of the data safety and monitoring board for GI Metabolic Solutions. Cohen declared having received research grants from Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic; honoraria for lectures and presentations from Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic, and Novo Nordisk; and serving on scientific advisory boards for Morphic Medical, Johnson & Johnson, and Medtronic.
