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Gold Tariffs: Why Are They a Problem? How Could the Market React?

Gold Tariffs: Why Are They a Problem? How Could the Market React?

Gold Tariffs: Why Are They a Problem? How Could the Market React?
The U.S. has unexpectedly slapped tariffs on imports of some gold bars, according to the Financial Times, roiling the market for the precious metal.
Why is this disruptive?
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Stocks Hit Record High; Bessent: Rates Should Be 1.5-1.75% Lower
Stocks Hit Record High; Bessent: Rates Should Be 1.5-1.75% Lower

Bloomberg

time20 minutes ago

  • Bloomberg

Stocks Hit Record High; Bessent: Rates Should Be 1.5-1.75% Lower

Scott Bessent feeds the rally, as Treasuries gain and US stocks close at another record high. The Treasury Secretary tells Bloomberg interest rates should be up to 175 basis points lower. Donald Trump warns of "very severe consequences" if Russia's Vladimir Putin doesn't agree to a ceasefire at tomorrow's summit. And Bloomberg learns Apple is planning to introduce an ambitious slate of new AI devices... including robots, a lifelike Siri and home-security cameras. (Source: Bloomberg)

'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge
'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge

Yahoo

time26 minutes ago

  • Yahoo

'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge

Wall Street strategists are sharply recalibrating their economic outlooks after Friday's July jobs report showed weaker-than-expected hiring and staggering downward revisions to prior months' data, suggesting the labor market may be losing steam at a quicker pace than previously thought. The US economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, far below the 104,000 expected by economists. But the bigger surprise came from revisions to the May and June figures, which collectively erased 258,000 jobs. This marked the largest two-month downward revision since May 2020. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, called the July jobs report "a dud" in a client note titled "July and the No Good, Very Bad Jobs Report." "The 'solid' state of the labor market described by the FOMC earlier this week looks more questionable after the July employment report," she said, citing broad-based hiring weakness in cyclically sensitive sectors like manufacturing, retail, and professional services. Despite persistent strength in healthcare hiring, she added, "the pace [of job growth] has lurched lower to just 35K" over the past three months when factoring in revisions. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, bluntly told Yahoo Finance that the July numbers were simply "not good. There's no way to sugarcoat that. The two-month revision is just staggering. It basically wipes out two months of what we thought were healthy job gains." Citi economist Veronica Clark agreed, telling Yahoo Finance, "It's not so much this July number, but the massive downward revisions to the June number that we had last month. ... This definitely does look like a labor market that is weakening." Meanwhile, Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called the report a "gamechanger" in a post on X, echoing others in saying "the labor market now looks a lot weaker than expected." The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, in line with expectations and still near historic lows. But as Clark pointed out, "that happened despite the labor force participation rate falling more," a shift some economists have linked to President Trump's immigration crackdown. Ahead of the report, there were growing concerns that increased deportations were reducing labor supply and keeping the jobless rate artificially low. September rate cut odds surge The revised data has added urgency to calls for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with market pricing shifting notably in the aftermath. "We still anticipate that the Fed starts to cut in September with consecutive cuts thereafter leading to about 100 basis points of cuts in total," said Leslie Falcone, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management. Falcone noted that while the Fed had already turned more cautious, the scale of the revisions surprised even the most dovish forecasters. "Some of these revisions are much more than what people expected. ... I do think that this is a bit on the weaker side. And it does put cuts back on the table." Traders seem to agree. Following the report, the probability of a September rate cut surged to about 80%, up from just 38% the day prior, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Earlier this week, Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller broke from the majority of FOMC officials, dissenting against the decision to hold interest rates steady after warning that the labor market was weaker than initial data had indicated. That warning appeared prescient on Friday as markets tumbled following the report. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell over 2% by midmorning, the Dow (DOW) shed nearly 600 points, and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped around 1.6%. Meanwhile, bond prices surged on increased rate cut bets, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) down 11 basis points to around 4.2%. Adding to labor market concerns, escalating trade tensions were also top of mind for investors as Trump hiked tariff rates on several US trading partners, including a surprise 39% tariff on Switzerland. "The market had sort of put tariffs in the rearview mirror and assumed that the labor market was okay," Sosnick said. "Well, both of those assumptions have been overturned quite dramatically this morning." The strategist warned markets appear to be entering a "reckoning period," explaining, "We're not seeing a lot of reflexive dip buying. ... That, to me, tells me that the psychology, at least as of this particular moment, is a bit more tenuous than it was." Correction: A previous version of this article misspelled Steve Sosnick's name. We regret the error. Allie Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Ray Dalio's Strategic Moves: Exiting Alibaba Group Holding Ltd with a -3.47% Impact
Ray Dalio's Strategic Moves: Exiting Alibaba Group Holding Ltd with a -3.47% Impact

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Ray Dalio's Strategic Moves: Exiting Alibaba Group Holding Ltd with a -3.47% Impact

Exploring the Latest 13F Filing of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) recently submitted the 13F filing for the second quarter of 2025, providing insights into his investment moves during this period. Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) is the Founder, Co-Chairman, and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates. The guru started Bridgewater out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York in 1975. Under his leadership, the firm has grown into the fifth most important private company in the US according to Fortune Magazine. For his and Bridgewater's industry-changing innovations as well as his work advising policymakers around the world, Ray has been called the Steve Jobs of Investing by aiCIO Magazine and Wired Magazine, and named one of the 100 Most Influential People by TIME Magazine. Dalio is also the author of The New York Times #1 Bestseller "Principles," which outlines his work and life principles, the foundation of Bridgewater's distinctive culture and the cornerstone of his and Bridgewaters success. Ray and Bridgewater also recently published "Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises," the first public dissemination of their research on these economic events, which enabled them to anticipate the 2008 Financial Crisis. Dalio built Bridgewater using a principled-based approach, applying standard ways to deal with situations that occur over and over. With the goal of creating an idea meritocracy, he wrote a set of principles that became the framework for the firm's management philosophy. Chief among them is employing radical truth and radical transparency encouraging open and honest dialogue and allowing the best thinking to prevail. His principles were captured in a TED Talk and published in a bestselling book in 2017. As a global macro-investment manager, Bridgewater takes a diversified approach spanning more than 150 different markets. With deep expertise in portfolio construction and risk management, the firm develops insights and design strategies to deliver value to its clients through any economic environment. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with NVDA. Summary of New Buy Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) added a total of 85 stocks, among them: The most significant addition was ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:ARM), with 473,725 shares, accounting for 0.31% of the portfolio and a total value of $76.62 million. The second largest addition to the portfolio was EQT Corp (NYSE:EQT), consisting of 787,156 shares, representing approximately 0.19% of the portfolio, with a total value of $45.91 million. The third largest addition was Intuit Inc (NASDAQ:INTU), with 58,838 shares, accounting for 0.19% of the portfolio and a total value of $46.34 million. Key Position Increases Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) also increased stakes in a total of 206 stocks, among them: The most notable increase was NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), with an additional 4,387,154 shares, bringing the total to 7,229,134 shares. This adjustment represents a significant 154.37% increase in share count, a 2.8% impact on the current portfolio, with a total value of $1,142,130,880. The second largest increase was Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), with an additional 2,558,097 shares, bringing the total to 5,600,424. This adjustment represents a significant 84.08% increase in share count, with a total value of $986,962,720. Summary of Sold Out Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) completely exited 164 holdings in the second quarter of 2025, as detailed below: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA): Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) sold all 5,660,258 shares, resulting in a -3.47% impact on the portfolio. PDD Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PDD): Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) liquidated all 1,742,717 shares, causing a -0.96% impact on the portfolio. Key Position Reduces Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio) also reduced positions in 287 stocks. The most significant changes include: Reduced SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by 731,882 shares, resulting in a -21.9% decrease in shares and a -1.9% impact on the portfolio. The stock traded at an average price of $571.44 during the quarter and has returned 10.22% over the past 3 months and 10.69% year-to-date. Reduced Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ:CEG) by 796,656 shares, resulting in a -84.6% reduction in shares and a -0.74% impact on the portfolio. The stock traded at an average price of $263.62 during the quarter and has returned 12.54% over the past 3 months and 46.93% year-to-date. Portfolio Overview At the second quarter of 2025, Ray Dalio (Trades, Portfolio)'s portfolio included 586 stocks, with top holdings including 6.51% in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), 5.78% in iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), 4.61% in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), 4.16% in iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), and 3.98% in Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). The holdings are mainly concentrated in all 11 industries: Technology, Communication Services, Financial Services, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Energy, Utilities, Basic Materials, and Real Estate. This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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