'Generational' election: U.S. threats could drive higher voter turnout, experts say

CBC

01-04-2025

'Definitely possible' more people in border communities will turn out to vote, professor says
A "generational" election — that's how some political observers are describing the race unfolding in ridings across Canada right now.
The stakes are high, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening both Canada's economy and sovereignty. That could lead to higher turnout at the polls as Canadians decide which party is best equipped to tackle the threat, experts say.
"We're dealing with an existential kind of an election where we're facing issues as a country that we have not seen before at any time in our history," said Cameron Anderson, professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario.
"I think the situation that we're in would suggest that that turnout should be, I would think, robust or at the very least maintaining the kinds of levels that we've had federally in the last while," he said.
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Turnout in the last federal election was a little over 62 per cent — a notable drop from the 75 per cent averages of the 1980s, or the nearly 80 per cent turnout of the early 1960s.
It's too soon to say just how high turnout could be this time around. Still, early indicators of voter engagement underscore the unusual and outsized effect a U.S. president is having on a political race north of the border.
They also portend a potential reversal of years of declining turnout in Canadian elections, especially in border and trade-reliant regions like Windsor-Essex in southwestern Ontario, experts say.
"It's definitely possible that you'll see higher turnout in those bordering ridings with the United States because they are so front and centre in this battle of rhetoric, and now action, that's being taken by the American government," said Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph.
"So we could see, definitely in those ridings, more attention to the campaigns than before and therefore more interest in voting them before," she added.
Trump on Wednesday is set to announce a fresh tranche of tariffs against foreign nations, but the details are unclear. He's already implemented — and pulled back — 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, and has maintained 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.
The tariffs — particularly any targeting the automotive industry — could be devastating for Canadian manufacturing hubs like Windsor, economists and industry analysts have warned.
U.S. auto tariffs may be less severe than initially thought, says Doug Ford
The president has also repeatedly said he wants to make Canada the "51st state."
"I think anytime people are on edge or uncertain that there is a chance to sort of take that energy and direct it towards civic engagement," said John Beebe, head of the Democratic Engagement Exchange at Toronto Metropolitan University.
Beebe — whose team provides civic groups, such as YMCAs and libraries, nationwide with voter education and outreach materials — said interest seems "higher than normal" so far.
"In terms of community organizations, there's definitely a recognition that this is a very consequential election," he said.
Beebe said "it's always dangerous to try to predict" voter turnout. "But on this one, I'm willing to go a little bit more out on a limb. And I do think we could certainly see higher turnout than we've seen in recent provincial elections."
Turnout in Ontario's February election was roughly 45 per cent, up slightly from the province's all-time low of 44 per cent in 2022.
He said he's also hopeful turnout will be higher than the last federal election in 2021, when it was roughly 62 per cent. He said it "would be great" to see turnout hit 68 per cent, like it did in 2015 — the highest it's been since the 1990s.
"A lot of it really will depend on the candidates and their ability to sort of put out a positive message," he said.
Though Simmons says the U.S. threats could motivate voters in certain ridings, she points out that it failed to drive people to the polls more broadly in the recent Ontario election.
"So on the one hand, we might expect that because it's a generational election, there would be a higher voter turnout," she said. "If we look at the precedent set by the provincial election, we might hesitate in drawing that conclusion at this time."
But for Anderson, who teaches courses on Canadian elections and voting, two main factors determine turnout rates: Both "the stakes of the election" and "the sense of closeness" of the race.
"In the most recent provincial election in Ontario, there we sort of had a winner from the start and there wasn't that sense of a close race," Anderson said. "And I think at some level the turnout rate reflected that."
But federally, Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and Mark Carney's Liberals sit fairly close in national polls. That tight race, combined with the U.S. threats, could motivate voters to hit the polls in higher numbers, Anderson said.
New Majority, a non-profit focused on getting young people to vote, says it expects turnout to rise among those under 30 — but especially among 18 to 24-year-olds.
"Turnout in 2021 was down due to the pandemic and a pause with on-campus voting — which we have confirmed is back this year," said Amanda Munday, a spokesperson for the organization.
"Many young people we talk to are angry about their future and feel a great sense of dread and anxiety — but there is also awareness of the importance of mental health, and taking action, especially in light of the dangerous '51st state' rhetoric coming from the U.S.," Munday said.
"We intend to reach tens of thousands of young people through our 1:1 efforts this federal election and hope to see turnout increase by at least 5 per cent for the 18-24 age group," she added.
Media Video | CBC News: Edmonton at 6:00 : What's driving young voters in Canada's federal election?
Caption: With Canada's 45th federal election coming up, Gen Z voters are determined to make an impact, with many of them casting ballots for the first time. Their participation will play a role in determining the outcome of the election. As Elections Canada aims to engage this younger demographic, we asked young voters about the issues driving them to the polls.
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Local candidates who have started door-knocking say they, too, have heard concerns about Trump.
"Voters recognize this election is the most important of our lifetime — one that will shape our future, our country, and our way of life," said Liberal candidate Richard Pollock.
"In Windsor West, voters are telling me they are worried about their jobs and families. They are deeply concerned about Donald Trump's tariffs, his threats of annexation, and the devastating impact these could have on the region's lifeblood: the auto industry," he said in a statement.
Alex Ilijoski, the NDP candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh-Lakeshore, says he's heard "from so many people about the direction the country is heading, especially with the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and Donald Trump."
"They're worried about their jobs, healthcare, and sky-high rent that is starting to price them out of the community," he added.
Local Conservative candidates Mark McKenzie and Harb Gill did not respond to a request for comment.