Morning Bid: Fed rate bets surge as oil calms

Reuters

3 hours ago

LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
As the geopolitical center of gravity shifts from the Middle East to the NATO summit, Wall Street turns its attention back to the domestic economy and rising speculation about a U.S. interest rate cut as soon as September.
I'll discuss all the market news below. Make sure to check out today's column, where I zero in on the U.S. economic metric that has just surged to its highest point since 2006.
Today's Market Minute
* NATO leaders were set to sign up on Wednesday to a big increase in defence spending at a short summit tailor-made for U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck a reassuring tone on his commitment to protecting fellow members of the alliance.
* The ceasefire brokered by President Trump between Iran and Israel appeared to be holding on Wednesday, a day after both countries signalled their air war had ended, at least for now.
* The contained move in oil prices during the Israel-Iran war highlights the increasing efficiency of energy markets and fundamental changes to global crude supply. ROI columnist Ron Bousso explains why Middle East politics may no longer be such a dominant force in oil markets.
* The Reserve Bank of India's jumbo rate cuts in early June took economists by surprise, as many indicators point to an economy chugging along nicely. Manishi Raychaudhuri, CEO of Emmer Capital Partners, asks why the RBI needed to frontload monetary stimulus?
* Financial markets have consistently overestimated the Federal Reserve's readiness to cut interest rates in recent years. But the latest Fed chatter, softening economic data and a dramatic reversal in oil prices suggest markets could be right this time. Read the latest from ROI columnist Jamie McGeever.
Fed rate bets surge as oil calms
Global stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab, up more than 7% for the year-to-date, surged to record highs early on Wednesday.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding into Wednesday, as debate swirls about just how much damage was done to Tehran's nuclear program. President Donald Trump joins other NATO leaders in The Hague for an annual gathering of the alliance that will underscore a big boost to defense spending.
But perhaps the market's big takeaway from the last two weeks of Middle East tensions is that the region is no longer the game changer it once was in global energy markets.
Over the course of the near two-week conflict, global crude oil prices never hit the sort of danger zone that would shift the dial on inflation rates. And U.S. crude prices, back down at $65 per barrel on Wednesday, are now more than 20% lower than they were this time last year.
That matters for central banks and the Federal Reserve trying to balance the outlook between rising import tariffs, a slowing economy, an ebbing workforce and - now falling oil prices.
Even though Fed boss Jerome Powell remained non-committal on the timing of the next Fed rate cut at the first of his two-day congressional testimony on Tuesday, markets have latched on to more dovish soundings from other Fed policymakers.
Fed futures now fully price a quarter-point rate cut by the September policy meeting, with previously hawkish Fed board governor Michelle Bowman indicating this week she may vote for a cut as soon as July.
Futures pricing now sees some 60 basis points of cuts by year-end and the so-called "terminal rate" in the Fed's easing cycle has fallen close to 3.0% for February 2027 - almost 40bp lower than it was just a month ago and more than 130bp below current rates.
While the oil price relapse has helped, emerging splits among Fed policymakers have intensified speculation about what happens when Powell ends his term as Chair in May next year.
Incoming economic news is also fueling the rate chatter, with consumer confidence readings for June unexpectedly plunging and housing markets starting to wobble too.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency showed single-family house prices fell 0.4% in April, the first decline since August 2022. That lowered the annual increase to 3.0% in April, the smallest rise since May 2023.
And with pressure mounting on the Senate to pass Trump's fiscal bill as soon as this week, U.S. Treasuries have lapped up both the oil retreat and Fed talk - even as they negotiate more than $200 billion of new debt sales this week.
Adding to the mix, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the date for the nation to reach its debt ceiling could change if courts interfere with Trump's tariff policies.
Two and 10-year Treasury yields , fell to six-week lows on Wednesday regardless.
And the dollar is bearing the brunt of the easier rate horizon. The euro hit new three-year highs on Tuesday and held above $1.16 today as Germany outlines details of the big spending, borrowing and defense push this week.
Wall Street stocks (.SPX), opens new tab caught the tailwinds of easier energy, rates and the dollar - rallying more than 1% on Tuesday and futures held those gains overnight.
The gains in Asian and European stocks over the past two days have been just as impressive, leading the global index to new all-time highs. The twin impact of easier oil and the dollar is a major relief for crude importers.
And with NATO aiming to lift defense spending targets to some 5% of GDP, European defence stocks (.SXPARO), opens new tab that already up almost 50% this year added another 1% on Wednesday.
In company news, FedEx FDX.N shares dropped nearly 6% in pre-market trading after the logistics giant sounded caution for the full year and forecast current-quarter earnings below expectations as it battles pressures from U.S. tariffs.
Tesla's TSLA.O new car sales in Europe fell 27.9% in May from a year earlier even as fully-electric vehicle sales in the region jumped 27.2%.
And Worldline (WLN.PA), opens new tab fell over 20% after an investigation by 21 European media outlets alleged the French digital payments company covered up client fraud to protect revenue.
Chart of the day:
a href="https://newslink.reuters.com/click/685bcffd0e3e0307080d10cf/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucmV1dGVycy5jb20vYnVzaW5lc3MvYWVyb3NwYWNlLWRlZmVuc2UvbmF0by1sZWFkZXJzLXNldC1iYWNrLXRydW1wLWRlZmVuY2Utc3BlbmRpbmctZ29hbC1oYWd1ZS1zdW1taXQtMjAyNS0wNi0yNC8_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1TYWlsdGhydSZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPU5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPU1vcm5pbmctQmlkLVVTJnV0bV90ZXJtPTA2MjUyNSZsY3RnPTY2OGJlZWU0NmNhYzIwMGZiMTAwNDk3ZA/668beee46cac200fb100497dD0554d950" target="_blank">NATO leaders were set to sign up to a big increase in defense spending at a short summit tailor-made for U.S. President Donald Trump, who struck a reassuring tone with his commitment to protect fellow members of the alliance. The summit is expected to endorse a higher defense spending goal of 5% of GDP, reflecting demands by Trump and Europeans' fears that Russia poses a growing threat to their security following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Defense spending across virtually all NATO members has risen over the past 10 years to an average of about 2.5% of collective GDP. Only the United States - the fourth biggest spender as a share of national output – has seen its defense bill fall as a percentage of GDP since 2014.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. May new home sales (10:00 AM EDT)
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell reprises semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee (10:00 AM EDT)
* Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks; Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill and BoE policymaker Clare Lombardelli speak
* U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion 5-year notes, and $28 billion of 2-year floating rate notes
* U.S. corporate earnings: Micron Technology, General Mills, Paychex
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.