Upcoming misadventure by Pakistan
Appointment of General Asim Munir, the Pakistan Army Chief, as the second Field Marshal of Pakistan Army, is surprising not because he did not step down as Army Chief or flee from the country as a defeated General but because he did not declare a coup in Pakistan – as the history in Pakistan suggests. Stepping down would have meant conceding a defeat. To convince their masses about blatant lies on the latest conflict, he rather chose to upgrade himself as a Field Marshal for the time being but it may not be a surprise, as again a situation is developing towards an ambitious General becoming the President of Pakistan soon. People in Pakistan are mocking him; is he trying to replace Quaid-e-Azam next? Then there is discontent within Pakistan Army; next-in-line Generals have their axe to grind too. How long the Field Marshal will survive is a moot question?
Despite pyrrhic victory, India has not lowered her guard and has declared a 'new normal' that if there is any terror attack, it will be considered an act of war and Operation Sindoor is not over yet.
What might be the next misadventure by Pakistan as it is believed that Pakistan is not going to sit idle and do nothing. It is waiting to recover and recoup and strike again sooner or later.
One of the important factors that Pakistan might consider in a riposte is the Indus Water Treaty held in abeyance. Could they do something against the dams created across the rivers? A madman's logic might permit it; since no water is flowing towards Pakistan, why not damage select areas which are trying to divert and feed the water towards Indian farmers? Even if the damage to the dams might flood Pakistan initially, in the long run, they would have water for their farmers as the dams would take time to rebuild and international pressure would kick in.
Keeping the IMF loan in mind, international reaction and above all the Indian response in mind, it is apparent that Pakistan may not venture into another terrorist attack in the immediate future in the most vulnerable and obvious places. For example, the upcoming Amarnath Yatra is the most anticipated event to be attacked, but it may not face it (it doesn't warrant any complacency though). There are two reasons, one that it will be heavily guarded and secondly, but most importantly, it does not present any surprise. We may recall that there were no attacks in Prayagraj during Maha Kumbh where both these two factors were present. If we really look at the pattern of attacks by the cross-border terrorists, it has always been at a place where the attack is the least expected; Baisaran meadow in Pahalgam, Pulwama and Uri are the examples. Pakistan will activate its sleeper cells deep inside India and try and create mayhem and blame on home grown rebels. A greater vigil is needed.
What would an aspiring Field Marshal want to do to become the next President? A spectacular show against India! The Indian Armed Forces have demonstrated their superiority and technological edge and caused considerable damage to their military infrastructure and important airbases that would require Pakistan time to catch up. Pakistan's supporters – China, Turkey, Azerbaijan or some other countries are likely to come to her assistance again, even though they might also hesitate seeing Pakistan's incompetent handling of their equipment and poor professionalism.
Pakistan might want to take a chance to launch a conventional attack considering the punishment to terror attack or grabbing a strategic piece of ground is same. It knows it can't face the Indian Armed Forces alone; China will need to open a second front. Imposing a two-front war for India is not an easy option but it is still a choice that could be made.
Timings of the next misadventure by Pakistan can't be predicted. Depending upon how fast the situation in Pakistan develops and soonest an opportunity is available, Field Marshal Munir will not hesitate to take a revenge India needs to be fully prepared for any misadventure by Pakistan again.
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