Applied Materials' forecast hit by China pause, export‑license woes; shares down 13%
President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff negotiations and certain export restrictions to China have made it more difficult to forecast where the economy is headed, weighing on new orders for chipmaking tools suppliers such as Applied Materials.
Dutch firm ASML (ASML.AS), opens new tab, the world's biggest supplier of chipmaking equipment, had warned earlier in July that it may not achieve revenue growth in 2026 as chipmakers building factories in the U.S. await clarity on the potential impact of tariffs.
"We are expecting a decline in revenue in the fourth-quarter driven by both digestion of capacity in China and non-linear demand from leading-edge customers given market concentration and fab timing," Applied's CFO, Brice Hill, said in a statement.
Tightened export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China prevent these companies from selling their most cutting-edge tools to Chinese customers.
In China, chipmakers are pausing new equipment orders to absorb recently added capacity for older‑generation, mainstream chips used in autos, industry and other everyday electronics, the company has said.
China, an essential market for chip companies, was Applied's largest revenue driver in the July quarter, accounting for 35% of total sales.
"Many peers have shown surprising China strength and given expectations for a decent pullback, but Applied Materials' results show much more volatility," said Brooks Idlet, senior analyst at CFRA Research.
Applied said its quarterly forecast assumed no approvals of its pending U.S. export license applications.
The company expects revenue of $6.70 billion, plus or minus $500 million, for the fourth quarter, compared with analysts' average estimate of $7.33 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
It projected adjusted profit per share of $2.11, plus or minus $0.20, compared with estimates of $2.39.
The company's third-quarter revenue rose 8% to $7.30 billion from a year ago, beating estimates of $7.22 billion.
Its adjusted quarterly profit per share of $2.48 also exceeded estimates of $2.36.
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