Bay Area transit faces life-or-death ballot in 2026

Politico

12-05-2025

DOORS ARE CLOSING — On Friday, the Bay Area's largest commuter-rail network suffered an hourslong outage that left its trains stalled on the tracks as commuters across the region waited for a ride that would never come.
It was, as state Sens. Scott Wiener and Jesse Arreguín said in a statement, a peek 'into what life in the Bay Area will be like without robust BART service.' Next year, voters across the region will decide whether they're ready to see their transit systems go dark for good.
In 2026, a set of unrelated taxes are likely to appear on local ballots across California's second-largest metropolitan area. Each would fund a different transit network whose leadership says a yes vote is necessary to keep the trains running. Together they add up to a real-time service update for one of the country's most transit-reliant regions: How much do Bay Area voters believe in their public-transport systems after the coronavirus pandemic disrupted commuting patterns?
'Letting transit deteriorate is really not an option,' said Laura Tolkoff, the transportation policy director of SPUR, a Bay Area nonprofit public policy organization. 'The Bay Area runs on transit.'
In San Francisco, Alameda and Contra Costa counties, voters will likely be asked to approve a regional transit tax to fund the operation of BART, which will soon run out of money to operate at its current service level. In San Francisco, residents are likely to see yet another measure, its details still unclear, to address the MUNI system's structural deficit. In the North Bay, the board of Sonoma-Marin Area Rail Transit is discussing when to put up the renewal of a quarter-cent sales tax in the two counties in 2026 after the same measure failed in 2020.
'Our fiscal cliff is very real,' said Eddy Cummins, the general manager of SMART, which connects Santa Rosa to Larkspur and San Rafael via rail. 'If the sales tax is not passed by the end of 2028, we're out of business.'
Transit operators say each of the measures is necessary to preserve existing services in the Bay Area region. But it will take a high-wire act to get them all over the two-thirds supermajority hurdle required for local governments to increase taxes at the ballot.
Recent surveys conducted by East Bay-based pollster FM3 measured voter support for a renewal of the SMART sales tax at upwards of 70 percent. But backing for the three-county regional measure is struggling to reach 60 percent, even as BART enjoys some of its highest customer satisfaction while improving safety and cleanliness and cracking down on fare evasion.
But the transit agencies also face different consumer realities. The BART measure would raise taxes, whereas SMART would extend one. The SMART system actually has 30 percent higher ridership than it did pre-pandemic, whereas BART and MUNI are trying to establish a new funding mechanism for systems that long relied on fare revenue to fund its services.
Compounding problems for BART is the reality that funds from a 2026 sales tax measure won't start flowing into the system's coffers until early 2027. That means BART and MUNI, which would also see some share of the funding, would need to cut services next summer, just as voters are being asked to fund them. To stabilize the situation, Arreguín and Assemblymember Mark González are currently pushing for $2 billion in new transit funding across the state to address that shortfall until regional funding comes online.
The challenge of convincing voters will likely fall to the Bay Area Council, which has played a lead role in previous transit tax campaigns. The group has already committed to helping pass the regional measure on the condition that a financial efficiency review was added to the state legislation. It is unclear if the well-funded business group will step in to aid the individual SMART and MUNI measures, although a representative acknowledged the political fates of all the systems could be dangerously intertwined.
'What we're really concerned about is if that funding doesn't come through and BART and MUNI have to scale back service,' said Emily Loper, the council's vice president of public policy. 'We don't want to see service reductions while we're trying to run a campaign to pass a measure talking about how important transit is.'
Wiener and Arreguín's SB 63, the state legislation that serves as the primary vehicle for building consensus around the BART-funding measure, recognizes the precarious politics. The bill raises the possibility that the tax might fare better if it reaches the ballot via citizen signatures, rather than sent there by the regional transit commission, thereby requiring only a simple majority to pass.
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Welcome to Ballot Measure Weekly, a special edition of Playbook PM focused on California's lively realm of ballot measure campaigns. Drop us a line at [e-mail] and [e-mail], or find us on X — @emilyrs and @wrmccart.
TOP OF THE TICKET
A highly subjective ranking of the ballot measures — past and future, certain and possible — getting our attention this week.
1. Home downpayment loans for UC staff (2026?): The University of California is planning to argue at a Wednesday hearing that extending zero-interest home loans to all employees could cost its schools as much as a billion dollars before they begin to see investment returns. The proposed constitutional amendment from Assemblymember Matt Haney arrives in the Assembly's appropriations committee with a growing list of coauthors but rising resistance from UC leadership.
2. Measure A (San Jose, 2025): The effort to renew a school parcel tax for academic programs and teacher-retention efforts in San Jose looks to be falling short of the two-thirds it needs to pass, with just 60.5 percent of the vote in preliminary results. The existing parcel tax, which brings in $5 million annually, is set to expire on June 30.
3. Proposition 12 (2018): A group called the Center for Environment and Welfare, funded by a PR firm known for its challenges to environmental and consumer regulations, has joined a congressional effort to defang California's enforcement of its animal-rights initiative. Last week, the group launched a 'Food Price Fix' campaign arguing the heightened welfare standards for farm animals is driving up food costs nationwide.
3. Voter ID (2026): If Assemblymember Carl DeMaio can gather the signatures for the ballot, his voter-ID proposal could find smooth sailing: New polling shows 71 percent of Californians back at least one element of his proposal – requiring a government-issue ID to vote. The Berkeley IGS survey shows the requirement receiving majority support from both parties, including 59 percent of the state's Democrats.
4. Measure E (Ross Valley School District, 2025): The Coalition of Sensible Taxpayers appears to have succeeded in shooting down a parcel tax to fund teacher salaries, with early returns showing support just under the two-thirds threshold for passage. The measure's defeat would be a win for the emerging local anti-tax group, and a blow to district officials who have typically been able to rely on their liberal tax base to increase revenue.
5. Transit tax (San Diego County, 2026?): A San Diego-based transportation advocacy nonprofit is hoping to revive Measure G, a transit tax that failed on the countywide ballot last November. RideSD researcher Alex Wong recently made the case that a tweaked measure could pass next year.
7. Measures M and N (California Pines, Modoc County, 2025): Residents in California's largest subdivision appeared set to reject two measures that would have increased their taxes to fund community services. In initial returns, both the parcel tax to fund fire response and another to pay for power and wastewater systems trailed by a handful of votes. Sources close to this YouTube link speculate Erik Estrada's lack of endorsement may have made the difference.
ON OTHER BALLOTS
Arkansas' attorney general rejected for the third time a proposed constitutional amendment from the League of Women Voters to amend the initiative process, this time citing a new law requiring all issue questions to be written at an eighth-grade reading level or lower … Ohio voters last week approved a proposal to authorize $2.5 billion in local infrastructure bonds that will be issued over the next decade …
Supporters of an initiative to require photo ID to vote in Maine are suing state election officials over what they say is a misleading title and summary assigned to the measure for the November 2025 ballot … Vermont's state legislature voted to place an amendment on the November 2026 ballot that would enshrine collective bargaining rights in the state constitution …
Voters in Philadelphia will consider a charter amendment in its May 20 primary election that would close a loophole in local housing regulations intended to increase the city's supply of affordable housing … And Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser called for the repeal of Initiative 82, approved by voters in 2022 to gradually increase the minimum wage for tipped workers to match that of non-tipped workers.
HOW TO
PICK YOUR LOCAL BATTLES: For decades, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association has tried to defeat tax increases across the state. We spoke with president Jon Coupal about how he decides where to get involved.
Step 1: You can't always be fighting city hall.
The Howard Jarvis Taxpayer Association made its reputation as anti-government crusaders, but that doesn't keep them from working with local officeholders to achieve their priorities. Sometimes that means working to nix tax increases before they're up for a vote. Sometimes, city officials will even call them first to head off conflict.
'They say, 'Hey, can you let us know if you're going to sue us over this?' says Coupal. 'We've advised local governments on how to comply with our various measures.'
Step 2: Prioritize big markets.
The association counted 115 tax measures on local ballots last fall, as Coupal wrote in a recent op-ed, of which 90 passed. The sheer number of potential battles means HJTA needs to 'triage,' as Coupal puts it. Although the association is primarily focused on statewide ballot issues, it will weigh in on local measures when they target large markets like San Francisco and Los Angeles or could set a dangerous precedent that will be followed elsewhere.
Step 3: Follow the lead of business.
The primarily grassroots-funded HJTA can't bankroll a big-budget campaign itself, so looks to align itself against measures that threaten the interests of corporations or the trade associations that represent them. 'We can't raise the same kind of money that the unions do, so we partner with the business community,' Coupal says. 'They like us.'
Step 4: Keep your spending old-fashioned.
Without the resources for TV advertising budget, HJTA keeps what Coupal calls a 'fine-tuned' approach to broadcast media buys, focusing primarily on terrestrial radio and podcasts along with direct mail. Its earned media efforts are aimed at shaping the conversation on conservative talk shows.
'That for us seems to be a very good medium,' Coupal said. 'We try to be very surgical.'
THAT TIME VOTERS ...
… WEIGHED IN ON WATER: Californians have seen ballot measures on a wide variety of questions related to the state's water infrastructure, including to:
Establish the Klamath River Fish and Game District and prohibit the construction or maintenance of any dams or artificial obstruction of waters in the district (1924, passed) … Prohibit liquid from state water development projects from being used to irrigate more than 160 acres of land held by one person (1958, did not qualify) … Amend the state water code to require large-scale water suppliers to water conservation programs, restrict the amount of water stored in the New Melones Dam and designate 11 basins for groundwater management (1982, failed) … Issue $150 million in bonds for water conservation and management (1986, passed) … Prohibit timber harvesting without a permit near waterways and limit it in watershed areas (1992, did not qualify) … Ban fluoridation of public water systems (1997, did not qualify) … Issue $3.4 billion in bonds for water-related projects, including the CALFED Bay-Delta program (2002, passed) … Issue $5.4 billion in bonds to address water quality and supply, flood control, and pollution (2006, passed) … And issue $8.9 billion in bonds for water storage, groundwater supplies, dam repairs, fishery improvements and habitat protection (2018, failed).
POSTCARD FROM ...
… LOS ANGELES: Last year, voters in this automobile-loving metropolis approved Measure HLA, an ambitious plan to add bike lanes, crosswalks and curb ramps to more than 2,500 miles of streets that have long prioritized cars.
But a six-lane, parking-lined stretch of Vermont Avenue in South Los Angeles isn't getting the makeover that voters backed, argues a local transportation journalist who has sued the city for failing to adhere to the initiative passed in March 2024.
Measure HLA specified that any time the city makes significant improvements to a stretch of road longer than one-eighth of a mile, it's required to also upgrade pedestrian and transit infrastructure to align with a mobility plan the city first approved in 2015. Measure HLA's backers saw the ballot measure as a way to ensure the city would gradually implement the plan as part of its ongoing work of repaving city streets.
But the lawsuit from Joe Linton, the editor of the transit- and mobility-focused news website Streetsblog LA, alleges that the city is not fulfilling those obligations along three stretches of Vermont Avenue, just west of downtown, that's among the city's busiest transit corridors — and most dangerous for cyclists and pedestrians.
'Since HLA became law, I've been tracking and reporting on the city's effort at implementation — which is mostly the city's lack of implementation,' said Linton, who filed the suit as a private citizen and not in his capacity as editor of Streetsblog. 'A year later, we've seen less new bikeway mileage than we did [before], and that was already very little.'
City Attorney Hydee Feldstein Soto has said that Measure HLA doesn't apply when non-city entities — like LA Metro, the county-wide transit authority — implement projects within the city. (A spokesperson for Feldstein Soto did not respond to a request for comment on the lawsuit.)
While City Hall touts major public-transit infrastructure projects aimed to impress Olympic visitors in 2028 — next month a new Metro station will open to serve LAX — it may be neglecting less glamorous streetscape improvements that affect the daily experience of residents, argues Linton.
'It's going to take a lot of community organizing and some lawsuits to get the City of LA and Metro to truly prioritize healthy, climate-friendly, green transportation,' he said.