How to pivot after Kyrie Irving's ACL tear, Bol Bol's fantasy basketball outlook and more

New York Times

05-03-2025

I watched an episode of 'The Americas' last week and became riveted when the camera streamlined over the Rocky Mountains and showed the vast expanse of the Great Plains. Herds of bison and horses galloped at breakneck speed across the land, but all I could see were Zion Williamson's running with ferocity. All I could hear were balls bouncing off the court.
Then, the narrator described what happens when the cold air from the north blankets the warm air from the south, causing severe thunderstorms …
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… which light up the dry shrubbery and cause Beavis and Butthead to jump in adulation. Well, that's exactly what happened to the NBA landscape on Monday.
With 2:35 left in the first quarter of Monday's game against the Sacramento Kings, Kyrie Irving drove down the lane but injured his left knee after it buckled when he tried to plant and go up for a shot. After writhing on the ground for a few minutes, Irving was helped to the free-throw line and channeled his inner Kobe:
Kyrie Irving is the definition of strength 🙏🏼#MFFL pic.twitter.com/J8DMb1BkYi
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 4, 2025
Chills.
On Tuesday, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that Irving is out for the rest of the season due to an ACL tear. I'm crying.
Since Luka Doncic was traded, Irving averaged 26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.6 treys in 36.6 minutes over 11 games. The usage rate spiked by 4% to 31%. It's a massive, massive blow for the Mavericks' offense.
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To make matters worse, Jaden Hardy sprained his ankle on Monday and will be out for an extended period of time.
The biggest beneficiary will be Spencer Dinwiddie. His minutes were in the low-to-mid 20s while garnering a usage rate in the teens. He will likely start and play over 30 minutes a night. On Monday, he had a 31% usage rate. On the season, he's started 19 games and averaged 14.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.3 treys. Dinwiddie has never been the most efficient player — 41% career field goal percentage — but he has been known to flash from time to time and will likely provide some nice counting stats, considering the expected playing time and role. As of Tuesday morning, Dinwiddie is only rostered on 18% of Yahoo teams.
Max Christie scored at least 15 points in each of his first seven games with the Mavericks. He's finished with 10 or fewer points in each of the past five games, with three of those in single digits. While the playing time ticked down to 27 and 29 minutes recently, I'd expect him to start playing over 30 minutes with increased usage. On Monday, Christie garnered a 20.4% usage rate. He's mainly a 3-and-D player but has dished out at least 4 dimes in three of the past four games, with a high of 6.
Dante Exum has started eight of 13 games since making his season debut. He's averaging 19.2 minutes over that span and received over 20 minutes seven times. It will be interesting to see exactly what role Exum fills because he's had some big fantasy games in the past, and his 3-point shot has improved — over 40% in 68 games with Dallas — albeit on low volume (2.1 attempts per game).
Klay Thompson may find life more difficult because Dallas no longer has someone to individually break down a defense or force a double team. He will still get some pindown actions, but those open looks from scrambling or rotating defenses will likely be few and far between.
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I like Brandon Williams, as he has juice and is a professional bucket-getter. He's undersized at 6-foot-1, though, and likely won't play more than 20 minutes at most. But he's someone to keep an eye on.
I also like Naji Marshall. He probably won't start but will likely play over 30 minutes a night. He's versatile on defense and can guard positions 2 through 4. Marshall is also garnering a 19% usage rate on the season and was at 24.9% on Monday. He can shoot the trey but has enough wiggle and handle to get to the rim. At 6-foot-7, 225 pounds, Marshall bullies smaller defenders in the paint and feasts on lumbering bigs on the perimeter. Marshall has scored at least 20 points six times this season, with a stretch of four straight games around Thanksgiving. Marshall is only rostered on 13% of Yahoo teams.
Joel Embiid was officially shut down for the season last week. Paul George is dealing with a finger issue. Tyrese Maxey has also been dealing with a finger issue and injured his back on Monday.
Halfway through the third quarter of Monday's game, Maxey drove baseline and tried to float under the rim after he was met by a defender. Unfortunately, he landed hard on his back after contorting in the air and was on the floor for a minute. He was unable to finish the game.
After the game, Nick Nurse said the injury didn't seem serious and that Maxey was day-to-day.
I'd be worried about Maxey, though. Since being listed as questionable with the finger issue four games ago, Maxey has averaged 13.3 points, 1.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.5 treys while shooting 27% from the field and 9% from downtown.
Philadelphia is currently 12th in the Eastern Conference at 21-39. The Sixers are obviously not contenders this season. In addition, their first-round pick goes to Oklahoma City if it's outside the Top 6. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that both Maxey and George will not be playing much down the stretch.
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If so, then Jeff Dowtin Jr. and Jared Butler would likely see a significant increase in playing time. Dowtin and Butler entered the NBA in the 2021-22 season, but Dowtin went undrafted, while Butler was a second-round pick. Both are 6-foot-3, but Butler has maybe 10 more pounds of muscle on his frame. Dowtin looks a smidge more jittery on the court, but Butler can finish through contact at the rim. Dowtin is on a two-way contract, while Butler signed a two-year, $3 million contract with the 76ers.
When watching both players, I like Butler better because he never seems rushed and has an impressive floater and layup package. But I'm just some dude writing about hoops from his mom's basement, and Dowtin has averaged 16.5 minutes over the past two games, while Butler played five minutes on Monday and was a DNP in three of the prior four games. Shrug.
Dowtin and Butler are not rostered in Yahoo leagues. I'd scoop up one if Maxey is shut down. My preference is Butler, but Nick Nurse has been playing Dowtin. Choose wisely.
If George is shut down, Justin Edwards and Ricky Council IV should benefit.
Andre Drummond has started the past three games, averaging 26.3 minutes per contest. On Monday, he finally had a Dre Day, putting up 25 points, 18 rebounds, an assist and 2 steals. He will likely continue to see playing time because the depth chart at center isn't deep. Adem Bona would likely see elevated minutes as youth, development and draft slot would be the priorities, but I doubt he approaches 30 minutes a night.
Quentin Grimes has been great since arriving in Philadelphia, averaging 16.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.3 treys while shooting 50% from the field and 37% from downtown. He hasn't just been standing in the corner on offense but has shown the ability to attack closeouts and navigate pick-and-roll action. Two games ago, Grimes caught fire and put up 44 points. He also went for 30 points seven games ago.
I'm not sure how Grimes would fit into a tanking scenario. On one hand, he's only 24 years old, and the team could get an extended look at how Grimes would be in an alpha role on offense. On the other hand, he's in the final year of his rookie contract and is a restricted free agent. Maybe the team has seen enough.
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The Memphis Grizzlies are fourth in the Western Conference with a 38-23 record. Until March, they had four losing streaks consisting of only two games each. After Monday's loss to the Atlanta Hawks, Memphis has now lost a season-high three games in a row! The sky is falling!
Memphis was without Ja Morant and Santi Aldama on Monday. Morant missed his second straight game with a shoulder injury, while Aldama has been dealing with calf soreness. Early in the first quarter of Monday's game, Jaren Jackson Jr. was lost after attempting to block a layup attempt on a fast break. He rolled his left ankle after landing and did not return to the game. GG Jackson was the direct substitute and played 28 minutes because Aldama was out. When healthy, Aldama will likely slot right in for Jackson.
With Morant out, Desmond Bane was the biggest beneficiary, notching a triple-double, while Luke Kennard entered the starting lineup and played 35 minutes. Bane had a 32.6% usage rate on Monday and, as mentioned in a prior article, slides up the offensive totem pole when Morant is out. Kennard contributed 17 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals and a trey. I like Kennard because he's a dead-eye shooter but also has some playmaking ability. The playing time isn't consistent, though. Scotty Pippen Jr. only played 16 minutes, finishing with 9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal.
On Sunday, Denver's Julian Strawther sprained his knee after landing from a jump floater. On Tuesday, it was reported that Strawther will be evaluated in four weeks. Since the start of February, Strawther averaged 23.9 minutes, 9.5 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.5 treys. Sure, he wasn't fantasy-relevant, but he provided offensive juice for the second unit.
Peyton Watson will finally be returning from the same injury, and he could soak up some of those minutes, but Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun would be the likely beneficiaries. On Sunday, Mike Malone had a tight rotation, with Strawther the only bench player to play over 10 minutes. Braun played a whopping 47 minutes, while Westbrook received 36 minutes.
After Saturday's game, the Kings' Domantas Sabonis was diagnosed with a Grade 1 hamstring strain and will be out for at least four games. Jonas Valanciunas got the start on Monday and contributed 14 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks in 24 minutes. The Kings blew out the Dallas Mavericks, so I'd expect Valanciunas to get closer to 30 minutes in competitive games. Valanciunas has always been a per-minute monster and is averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute.
Jalen Suggs last played for the Orlando Magic on Jan. 25 and has missed 15 games. On Tuesday, it was announced that Suggs underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee and is done for the season. Cole Anthony has started the past 11 games, averaging 10.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.4 treys. He's questionable for Tuesday's game due to a toe issue. If Anthony is out, Anthony Black would likely enter the starting lineup. In nine starts this season, Black averaged 8.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.0 steals in 28.1 minutes. The Magic are all about Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
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Evan Mobley is sitting out Tuesday's game, the front end of a back-to-back. Cleveland currently has a record of 50-10 and is 7.5 games ahead of the Boston Celtics for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland has three more back-to-backs, so Mobley and others will likely miss some games down the stretch.
Pelle Larsson played a season-high 28 minutes on Monday for the Heat, contributing 16 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 treys. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, Davion Mitchell, Kel'el Ware and Andrew Wiggins didn't play, so Larsson may not get many opportunities. That said, things happen during the Silly Season, and I do like Larsson. The coaches were raving about him in the offseason, and he gives me Christian Braun vibes.
Shoutout to Portland's Toumani Camara, who's been a top-20 player on a per-game basis over the past seven games. Camara has averaged 15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.1 steals and 2.1 treys while being a menace on defense, guarding the top dawgs nightly.
It always bugged me that Detroit's Jalen Duren was sub-1 in blocks per game because he's so athletic. Well, after averaging 0.9 and 0.8 blocks in his first two seasons, he's at 1.2 this season. He Mutombo'd a combined 10 shots in the past two games. Winning truly does cure all.
On Jan. 19, Chauncey Billups sent Shaedon Sharpe to the bench because of defensive lapses. Seventeen games later, he gave Sharpe 33 minutes off the bench, and Sharpe exploded for 36 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, a steal and a block. He was then re-inserted into the starting lineup and has averaged 37.2 minutes, 21 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 treys in three games. Most importantly, Portland is 3-1 over the past four games and has been eighth in defensive rating.
There are many more points I'd like to make, but this piece is getting long, so I'll end with this:
On Feb. 11, Bol Bol got the start, played 31 minutes and produced 18 points, 14 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 4 blocks and 3 treys. The following night, Bol put up 15 points, 4 rebounds, a steal, 2 blocks and a trey in 34 minutes. Then he played 10, 13 and 7 minutes. Whack a Bol!
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This has been a recurring theme throughout his career. Bol wouldn't play much, then get an opportunity, flash potential, only to be returned to the bench and be a novelty item. And for good reasons, as his defense was often poor. Yes, he'd block shots, but his awareness and IQ were lacking.
Over the past four games, Bol has returned to the starting lineup and averaged 28 minutes, 18 points, 7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.5 blocks and 2.8 treys while shooting 64% from the field, 47% from downtown and 87% from the line.
In the past, I'd expect Bol to return to the bottom of the box, never to pop his head up again. This time, though, there's a little more optimism.
Kevin Durant and Mike Budenholzer spoke positively about him during a post-game interview, and one of the assistant coaches was almost choking up when talking about Bol mid-game, saying that Bol's hard work has paid off. But what Durant said really piqued my interest, as he mentioned Bol's mindset and work ethic and said he did not doubt that Bol would perform well.
Bol has a fantasy-friendly game and is rostered on only 34% of teams at Yahoo. I get the skepticism, but the risk-reward is too favorable to ignore.
(Photo by Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)