Climate change could cause millions more temperature-related deaths in Europe by 2099, study says
Climate change will likely cause a sharp increase in deaths from extreme heat, substantially outweighing any decrease in cold-related deaths across Europe.
A modelling study was led by researchers from the Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in Nature Medicine.
'This study provides compelling evidence that the steep rise in heat-related deaths will far exceed any drop related to cold, resulting in a net increase in mortality across Europe,' says Professor Antonio Gasparrini, senior author of the article and lead of the EHM-Lab at LSHTM.
'These results debunk proposed theories of 'beneficial' effects of climate change, often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible.'
They estimate that climate change could directly result in over 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities by 2099 if carbon emissions aren't cut.
The researchers say 70 per cent of these deaths could be avoided if rapid action is taken.
Which European cities will see the most temperature-related deaths?
Barcelona is projected to see the highest temperature-related death toll by the end of the century at 246,082. It is followed by two Italian cities: Rome with a projected 147,738 deaths and Naples with 147,248.
Fourth on the list is another Spanish city Madrid (129,716) and then yet another Italian city in fifth, Milan (110,131).
Athens with a projected 87,523 deaths comes next followed by Valencia (67,519), Marseille (51,306), Bucharest (47,468) and Genoa (36,338) to round out the 10 worst-affected cities.
Researchers say that due to their large populations, the highest number of temperature-related deaths are projected in the most populous Mediterranean cities. Still, many smaller cities in Malta, Spain and Italy are also likely to be badly affected.
Away from the Mediterranean, the impacts are expected to be less severe. Other European capitals like Paris could see a smaller, but still significant, increase in both cold and heat-related deaths.
Further north in the British Isles and Scandinavia, the study shows there may be a net decrease in temperature-related deaths.
Projected figures in London, for example, show a decrease of 27,455 by the end of the century. However, the researchers point out that this drop is massively outweighed by increases in the rest of Europe, resulting in 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths across the continent.
"Previous estimates based on historical data have suggested that for every heat-related death, there are roughly 10 cold-related deaths (in Europe)," explains Gary Konstantinoudis, an Imperial Research College Fellow at the MRC Centre for Environment and Health who wasn't involved in the study.
"This raises important questions about the net impact of temperature changes due to anthropogenic climate change.
"This new study underscores a crucial point: without any mitigation or adaptation to temperature, projections suggest that temperature-related deaths are likely to increase overall, with heat-related deaths surpassing cold-related ones."
Can Europe's cities adapt to rising temperatures?
Europe is warming faster than any other continent on Earth. Current climate data shows that temperatures are rising at twice the global average rate.
The projected numbers are staggering but an increase in deaths isn't the only potential issue Europe could face as it warms up.
'Heat-related deaths are only one measure of the health impacts of rising temperatures. Extreme heat kills but it also causes a wide range of serious health problems,' says Dr Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at global charitable foundation Wellcome who wasn't involved in the research.
'It has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, miscarriages and poor mental health.'
Thomson adds that we're not properly prepared for the impact this will have on our health. Cities and towns need to rapidly adapt to start dealing with rising temperatures. Changes like adding green spaces or waterways can help cool urban environments where heat gets trapped by buildings and large amounts of asphalt or concrete.
Adaption alone isn't enough, however. The study suggests that even if enormous efforts were made to adapt cities to changing temperatures this would not be enough to balance increased health risks due to exposure to heat, especially in the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean region, Central Europe, and the Balkans.
Only significant, rapid cuts to carbon emissions were shown to reduce the number of extreme heat deaths.
'Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat,' says Dr Pierre Masselot lead author at the EHM-Lab at the LSHTM.
'This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire.'
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