Gold Holds Gains After Softer US Job Data, Tariff Roll-Outs
Bullion traded near $3,360 an ounce, after rising 2.2% in the previous session while equities dipped. The precious metal's jump was driven by two main factors: a dramatic slowdown in US hiring report that fueled rate-cut bets, and President Donald Trump's roll-out of some of the steepest trade tariffs since the 1930s.
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Trump nominates CEA chair Stephen Miran to Federal Reserve Board
President Trump said Thursday that he would nominate Stephen Miran, current chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran will replace outgoing governor Adriana Kugler, who is set to step down on Friday. Miran's term will run until Jan. 31, 2026. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have chosen Dr. Stephen Miran, current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, to serve in the just vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January 31, 2026," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. "In the meantime, we will continue to search for a permanent replacement," Trump continued. "Stephen has a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University, and served with distinction in my First Administration. He has been with me from the beginning of my Second Term, and his expertise in the World of Economics is unparalleled — He will do an outstanding job. Congratulations Stephen!" Miran served as an adviser of economic policy for the Treasury Department during Steven Mnuchin's tenure as Treasury Secretary during Trump's first administration. He was also a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital Management. Miran is credited as being one of the authors of Trump's tariff policy and a key architect of his economic agenda. He has also been linked with the push for a so-called Mar-a-Lago currency accord, based on a paper he wrote laying out various strategies for rebalancing US trade while working in the private sector. Kugler unexpectedly announced last week that she would step down from the Fed's Board of Governors, just under six months before her term was set to expire on Jan. 31, 2026. Kugler, who has served as a Fed governor since Sept. 13, 2023, will return to Georgetown University as a professor this fall. Miran's appointment will add not only a Trump administration official onto the Fed board, but also likely another member who is in favor of the central bank cutting interest rates as soon as its September policy meeting. Last week, Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman both voted against the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.50%. Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, said the president's decision to nominate Miran is a "welcome surprise," noting that while he doesn't always agree with Miran he is a "good pick" who should easily be confirmed by the Senate. Miran's confirmation is pending Senate approval, but with lawmakers currently on August recess, it's unclear how long that could take. The nomination hearing will be a priority for the Senate Banking Committee, but lawmakers aren't due back in session until September 9, which is just one week before the Fed's policy meeting on September 16 and 17. The tight timeline makes it unlikely Miran could be confirmed and sworn in by the meeting. Senator Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, called Miran "an accomplished economist" and said that he "looks forward to quickly considering his nomination in the Senate Banking Committee." While Miran is set to be on the Fed's board for only a few months, investors will be looking for any clues about what his nomination means for the president's eventual nomination for the next Fed Chair and his intentions for influencing monetary policy. President Trump will need to nominate someone to the Fed Board of Governors for a full 14-year term once the short-term Fed Governor position's term is up on January 31 next year. If Miran performs to Trump's liking it's possible he could be re-nominated to a full 14-year term. The president said he's narrowed down his choice for the next Fed Chair to three individuals. Bloomberg reported earlier on Thursday that Waller is emerging as the favorite to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair among Trump's advisers. The president said he also favors former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current Director of the president's National Economic Council Kevin Hassett. Warsh has experience navigating the central bank as he served as a Fed governor from 2006 until 2011 and acted as former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's liaison to Wall Street during the chaos of the 2008 financial crisis. Warsh is also a known figure to Trump, who interviewed him for the Fed chair post eight years ago before deciding to nominate Powell. Warsh has been critical of the Fed of late, saying that the central bank needs a regime change and that it's not just about the chairman, but a range of people. He's argued on Fox Business last month that the costs involved in renovating the Fed's headquarters represent one of several examples of how the Fed "has lost its way" and that the American people "need a reformer to fix" the institution and rebuild its credibility. When it comes to policy, Warsh has suggested that the Fed could look past inflation related to tariffs because they'd be a one-time increase. Hassett, meanwhile, already has a close relationship with Trump, given that he advises the president on economic policy and served in the first Trump administration. Hassett has said there's no reason why the Fed shouldn't cut rates now, something the president has repeatedly hammered the central bank to do. He has indicated he would accept the job of Fed Chair if Trump chooses him. This week he accused the central bank of injecting politics into its decision making during an appearance on Fox Business. Similar to Warsh, Hassett suggested Fed leadership has lost its way, noting that 'the job of the leadership is to drive a nonpartisan consensus of the board, and that's not what we're seeing right now.' He said the Fed board 'is going to have to change,' and that he favors going back to the era of Alan Greenspan— where the Fed chair had a large influence over policy decisions. 'The board is going to have to go back to the kind of … Alan Greenspan approach of driving consensus, having healthy debate,' said Hassett. The White House also hopes that Powell will decide to leave the Fed Board of Governors when his chairmanship is up next year in May 2026. That would open up a second seat that Trump can fill. Powell has not yet said whether he intends to do that; his term as a Fed governor is not up until 2028. If Powell does not vacate his seat, the open governor's seat could be the only opportunity the president has to put his stamp on a fresh face for Fed Chair. 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Yahoo
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Trade expert predicts 200% surge in tariff-fraud crackdowns
As another round of tariffs kicked into gear on Thursday, trade expert Rennie Alston warned importers that regulators will be doubling down on ensuring that the growing list of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are properly paid. 'Today every importer is paying more tariffs than they did prior to 12:01am this morning -– it's challenging to stay abreast of them,' Alston, CEO of customs consultant Alston Group, told attendees at a supply chain summit hosted by Jarrett, a 3PL. Alston was referring to the latest slate of tariffs the administration announced last week that went into effect on Thursday. Along with those and previous tariffs, Alston said, has come a level of compliance scrutiny from the government – specifically the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) – that he has not seen before. 'What is new, over the last year, is direct communications from the Department of Justice on issues in which the [customs compliance] matter is referred from customs to the Department of Justice for immediate enforcement action.' Alston, a licensed customs broker and an advisor to the administration as a member of U.S. Customs and Border Protection's Commercial Customs Operations Advisory Committee, said that CPB is more closely scrutinizing import documents to check for accurate information on merchandise value, origin country, or whether importers are disguising the country of origin through transshipments. 'Circumvention of tariffs in my professional opinion will be the number one revenue generating penalty that supersedes valuation and record keeping [penalties], which had been the number one and two [penalty categories] over the last 20 years,' Alston said. 'I anticipate that Department of Justice activity is going to increase by 200% as a result of tariffs and the reaction of the trade community.' Kirti Reddy, a partner with the law firm Quarles & Brady, told FreightWaves earlier this year that the speed and size of the new taxes on America's trading partners would likely generate a higher number of cases prosecuted under the False Claims Act. 'Especially with the tariffs being so steep, companies and individuals might be inclined to figure out how they're going to meet their costs' by circumventing compliance, she said. One such evasion tactic 'evolving right before our eyes,' Alston said, is Modified Delivery Duty Paid, or MDDP – 'a blatant scam' from CBP's perspective, he said. 'It is where a company talks you into allowing someone else to be the importer of record, and the foreign supplier says, 'don't worry about the entry, I'll be the importer, you just keep buying from me and don't worry about what I declare to customs'.' This is fraud, Alson warned, emphasizing the responsibilities of all involved in the transaction no matter whose name was on the fraudulent declaration. Customs brokers can help importers understand the ramifications of misinterpretations on customs documents, he said, because CPB takes the position that such compliance errors are intentional. 'Understand that your actions are critical to your company's ability to sustain itself, because penalties could be far beyond the value of the merchandise.' Container rates unmoved by latest tariff deadline New rule on low-value imports raises cross-border trucking concerns 20 company reactions — good and bad — to Trump's tariff war Click for more FreightWaves articles by John Gallagher. The post Trade expert predicts 200% surge in tariff-fraud crackdowns appeared first on FreightWaves. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
