Inflation rose by 2.2% in April with risks ‘weighted towards' further price increases
Inflation
Inflation rose by 2.2% in April with risks 'weighted towards' further price increases
Oisín Gaffey
14:13
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.2% in the past 12 months, with the cost of package holidays hit hardest. Image: Javier Ghersi
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OECD headline inflation stable at 4.2% in April 2025
Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was stable at 4.2% in April 2025. Headline inflation among OECD countries rose in about as many countries (11) as it fell (12), and was stable or broadly stable in the remaining 15 countries. Latvia and the United Kingdom saw inflation increases of more than 0.5 percentage points (p.p.), while inflation declined by 0.5 p.p. or more in Canada, Costa Rica, Czechia, Hungary, and Poland. In April, headline inflation was at or below 2% in 11 OECD countries, and below 1% in 5 of them. Year-on-year energy inflation in the OECD fell to minus 0.2% in April, down from 0.3% in March, with declines in 29 OECD countries and increases in only 7. Energy inflation climbed by over 7.0 p.p. in Türkiye and the United Kingdom, whose regulator raised the energy price cap, and by 2.7 p.p. in Japan, where the government reduced utility subsidies. In Canada, energy prices fell sharply, mainly due to the removal of the consumer carbon price as well as lower crude oil prices. OECD food inflation slowed to 4.5% from 4.8% in March, while core inflation (inflation less food and energy) was broadly stable at 4.6% from 4.5% in March. Despite declines in energy and food inflation, year-on-year inflation in the G7 was stable at 2.4% in April. Core inflation remained the primary driver of headline inflation across all G7 countries except Japan, where the combined contribution of food and energy inflation exceeded that of core inflation. In the euro area, year-on-year inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) remained stable at 2.2% in April. A third straight month of rising year-on-year food inflation and a 0.3 p.p. increase in core inflation were offset by a further decline in energy inflation, to minus 3.6%. In May 2025, according to Eurostat's flash estimate, year-on-year headline inflation in the euro area fell to 1.9%. Year-on-year core inflation is estimated to have fallen by 0.4 p.p., to 2.3%, services inflation by 0.8 p.p., to 3.2% and energy inflation to have been stable. In the G20, year-on-year inflation was broadly stable at 4.1% in April from 4.2% in March. Headline inflation accelerated in Indonesia, while it remained stable or broadly stable in Brazil, China, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Inflation fell in Argentina but remained above 45% .
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CSO: Food prices increase by 4% in past year
Food prices are estimated to have risen by more than 4% since last year according to the latest data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) today (Friday, May 30). The EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for Ireland is estimated to have risen by 1.4% in the 12 months to May 2025 and remained unchanged since April 2025. This compares with HICP inflation of 2% in Ireland in the 12 months to April 2025 and an annual increase of 2.2% in the HICP for the eurozone in the same period. Looking at the components of the flash HICP for Ireland in May 2025, food prices are estimated to have increased by 1% in the last month and by +4.1% in the last 12 months. Energy prices are estimated to have fallen by 1.3% in the month and decreased by 2.6% over the 12 months to May 2025. The HICP, excluding energy and unprocessed food, is estimated to have gone up by 1.8% since May 2024. Eurostat will publish flash estimates of inflation from the EU HICP for the eurozone for May 2025 on June 3, 2025. Commenting on the data published today, statistician in the CSO Prices Division, Anthony Dawson said: 'The latest flash estimate of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), compiled by the CSO, indicates that prices for consumer goods and services in Ireland are estimated to have increased by 1.4% in the past year. 'Looking at the components of the flash HICP in Ireland for May 2025, energy prices are estimated to have decreased by 1.3% in the month and fallen by 2.6% since May 2024. 'The HICP, excluding energy and unprocessed food prices, is estimated to have risen by 1.8% since May 2024. 'Food prices are estimated to have grown by 1% in the last month and increased by 4.1% in the last 12 months. Transport costs have fallen by 3% in the month and decreased by 2.4% in the 12 months to May 2025,' he added. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the official measure of inflation for Ireland and is published monthly by the CSO. The CPI release for May 2025 will be published on June 12, 2025 and the final results of the HICP for Ireland for May 2025 will be published as part of the CPI release. The HICP is an index of consumer prices that has been harmonised to allow comparisons across eurozone countries. The CSO compiles the HICP flash estimates and final results for Ireland and submit those to Eurostat which then compiles the eurozone estimate and publishes that along with the results for the countries within the eurozone.
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Irish inflation remains steady in May at 1.4%
Irish inflation remained steady in May and was unchanged compared to the previous month. New figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Friday found that the EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by 1.4% in the 12 months to May 2025. This compares with an inflation figure of 2% in the 12 months to April and an annual increase of 2.2% in the HICP for the Eurozone in the same period. Looking at the components of the flash HICP for Ireland in May 2025, energy prices are estimated to have fallen by 1.3% in the month and decreased by 2.6% over the 12 months to May 2025. Meanwhile, food prices are estimated to have increased by 1% in the last month and by 4.1% in the previous 12 months. The HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food is estimated to have risen by 1.8% since May 2024. The consumer price index (CPI) is the official measure of inflation in Ireland, while the HICP is an index of consumer prices that has been harmonised to allow for comparisons across euro area countries. While the CPI includes mortgage rates in its basket of goods, the HICP does not. Eurostat will publish flash estimates of inflation from the EU HICP for the Eurozone for May 2025 on 03 June 2025. It comes as economists warn the ECB to avoid delays in its easing of monetary policy. The bank will lower interest rates twice more, according to a Bloomberg survey, but respondents warned it shouldn't wait too long between those moves or investors will conclude that its easing campaign is already over. Respondents predict quarter-point reductions on June 5 and at September's meeting, when new quarterly forecasts should shed more light on the effects of US President Donald Trump's reordering of global trade. That would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%, where the poll sees it settling through the end of 2026.
