Despite stunning first leg win, Shelbourne face major European test at home to Rijeka
The broader significance of their 2-1 win away to Croatian champions Rijeka last week risks being lost if they do not progress on aggregate tonight, in the same manner as Shamrock Rovers' narrow European exit to Molde earlier this year means that their first leg win away from home has slipped down the history books' hierarchy.
Not that Shels will pay much heed to these external anxieties: their eyes are on the prize. Avoid defeat tonight, and Shels will progress to the Europa League play-off round against PAOK and Wolfsberger.
But here's the real kicker: should they win that tie they'll go to the Europa League proper, but should they lose, Shels will be parachuted into the Conference League proper.
Hence tonight they are 90 minutes from league phase football throughout the winter, and a guaranteed basic prize fund of €3.8 million. It would mark a stunning turnaround from a side whose title defence quickly shrivelled before the shadow of Damien Duff abruptly left the building.
Where Duff's emotion and eternal crusade against low standards made him a willing interviewee on all manner of off-field subjects, his replacement Joey O'Brien has taken every available opportunity to play things down.
He played down the all-island talk around the first round against Linfield; he played down the fact there's once again no live mainstream television coverage of tonight's game; and he also played down Shels' chances of progressing in the immediate aftermath of the first leg.
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'I've always seen European football as four halves of football and there's two halves to go', said O'Brien in Croatia. 'We have a small advantage, but again, I still think they're the favourite.'
You might interpret this as mind games but there's a healthy dose of realism within it too. For one, Rijeka faced Shels last week without their talismanic attacker Toni Fruk, who is back from suspension for tonight's second leg. Shels were also wildly efficient in the first leg in Croatia: they had two shots on target across 90 minutes, and scored both.
They will have the advantage of an utterly partisan Tolka Park, however, as Uefa have banned Rijeka from bringing any away fans due to previous misbehaviour.
The Shels' squad also have the benefit of how they were shaped by their European exit last year. Amid the bewildering glory of their league triumph, Shels' 3-0 aggregate loss to FC Zurich last year was quickly forgotten by outsiders, but the chastening first leg away from home left a sharp impression on those within the club.
Shels were struck by the sheer physicality of their opponents, and not solely in a getting-stuck-in-sense. The Zurich players had immense stamina: they effectively ran Shels off the pitch, and it is in this repeat sprintability that Irish football lags behind much of the rest of Europe, given the relative poverty of our academy infrastructure.
Having struck a deal with Jamestown analytics to use the same data that has fuelled the rise of Brighton and the other clubs among Tony Bloom's portfolio, Shels set out to, in their words, recruit players who would 'raise their athletic floor.'
Hence James Norris arrived on loan from Liverpool, and Milan Mbeng was recently signed from Cork City. Both are impressive athletes, and provided thrust from wing-back - physically demanding role of all – in the first leg.
Mipo Odubeko, meanwhile, added more pace to the team, which Shels' correctly decided would be crucial in Europe. For all of his profligacy, Odubeko has stepped up a level under O'Brien. With Sean Boyd injured, Odubeko will be vital tonight.
O'Brien has also effected a vast improvement in Shels' set pieces, another lesson of the club's off-season. Their equalising goal in Croatia was from a corner routine as smart and effective as you'll see anywhere in Europe this year.
Shels remain unbeaten domestically under O'Brien, though there are still areas of improvement. They are still much too prone to utterly baffling defensive errors: the home defeat to Qarabag was heavier than it needed to be owing to Conor Kearns and Kameron Ledwidge's late mix-up, while the goal conceded in Croatia last week was an utter calamity.
They were at it again against Bohs last Sunday, when Lewis Temple played a blind back-pass beyond his goalkeeper that would have been an own goal had Connor Parsons not been so eager to spare Temple's blushes.
Should Shels lose on aggregate tonight, they will still have one last chance to qualify for the Conference League, via a consolation play-off tie against either Vikingur of the Faroes or Linfield. (Vikingur lead 2-1 from the first leg.)
O'Brien has warned his players to pay no heed to this Plan B, though, as they are only 90 minutes from the ability to salvage from this fraught and fitful season a resounding success.
With Fruk back for Rijeka, Shels may have to ride their luck at times tonight, and they simply cannot afford to lapse back into gift-giving mode.
But their vastly improved pace and athleticism, allied to the sheer size of the occasion at Tolka Park, means Shelbourne have a realistic opportunity to do something truly special tonight.
Live: LOITV; KO: 7.45pm
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