Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here's where to look

Yahoo

30-05-2025

The prospect of water pushing into homes and businesses is a heavy weight on the minds of Tampa Bay residents ahead of storms.
Despite last year's devastating hurricane season, Tampa Bay has still not had a direct hit from a hurricane in over a century. Yet, 14 people drowned in the Tampa Bay area during Hurricane Helene from dangerous storm surge, and thousands of homes were damaged from coastal water or flooding rains.
While guidance from the National Hurricane Center and emergency managers is king ahead of storms, it's helpful to have a few extra tools in the belt. One of those is watching real-time and future water levels.
A website from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides data on tide gauges across portions of coastal Tampa Bay. And another resource from the National Water Prediction Service shows where river flooding is possible.
The information, while far from the only piece in the larger puzzle that is hurricane preparation, gives residents another way to evaluate the risk to their homes and lives.
To be clear: These tools are a supplement to personal decision-making (like planning to move your car to higher ground, or if you should start packing your car ahead of evacuations), but if officials tell you to evacuate, you need to leave.
We've gathered what to know about rising water and how to access a sampling of the data surrounding it.
Let's break down the basics.
Tides are influenced by the sun and moon. When the tallest part of a wave reaches an area, that's high tide. The opposite, the lowest, is low tide.
The difference in these heights is called a tidal range.
Weather patterns can also influence tides. Strong wind and rain can lead to higher-than-expected tides, Virginia Dentler, an oceanographer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, previously told the Tampa Bay Times.
Tampa Bay tends to see its highest tides of the year around late summer and early fall — coincidentally around peak hurricane season. Around this time, water levels grow by about 8 or 9 inches from what is typically recorded in winter and spring.
'When you have warmer waters, ocean water expands, and so it increases in elevation along the coast,' Gregory Dusek, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, previously told the Times.
This is also around when 'king tides,' a colloquial term that refers to higher-than-normal tides, can occur.
The flooding these high tides can cause has a few other names, like nuisance flooding or sunny-day flooding.
A king tide occurs when two ingredients come together — when the moon is closest to the Earth, combined with a new or full moon.
In Tampa Bay, there are just a few feet of difference between low and high tides, which is less than in other coastal parts of the country. That means whatever weather occurs that day will play a more important role in determining if a high tide will cause flooding here.
Flooding can also occur without a weather system, though it's less common.
A king tide occurred while Hurricane Idalia was skirting the coast of Tampa Bay in 2023. Idalia scraped near the area just hours before a king tide. Had it arrived about six hours later, Idalia's storm surge likely would have been about 2 feet higher.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a plethora of tidal stations across the country. In Tampa Bay, a number of those sites are concentrated along the coastal waters of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
Because Tampa Bay has a port system, there are more tidal gauges in the surrounding waters, Dentler said. However, more-northern areas of Tampa Bay, like Pasco County and beyond, are without these gauges.
Dentler said tide stations are typically added onto preexisting structures, like Pier 60 on Clearwater Beach.
The administration's Tides & Currents website links to its tide stations, which include information like water levels, wind speeds and observed barometric pressure.
When a storm is incoming, Dentler suggests looking to the administration's Coastal Inundation Dashboard.
'It's our real-time product,' Dentler said.
Pinpoints on a map show where tide stations are located. Once a user clicks on their desired location, that station's observed water levels pop up.
Stations give real-time water level data and will show when minor flooding (in yellow), moderate flooding (in red) and major flooding (in pink) are possible.
The lines on the graph depict three possible water levels: Predicted water levels, observed water levels and forecasted water levels.
The dark blue line shows water level predictions that oceanographers made a year in advance. The red line shows where water levels currently are. The light blue line shows the forecast guidance, which inputs external weather forces such as high winds.
The forecast guidance line is the best bet in knowing how high water levels may reach during a storm, Dentler said.
All stations have different heights at which flooding can occur. In St. Petersburg, for example, minor flooding can happen at a little less than 3 feet.
Most of the highest water levels recorded in the station's history occurred during hurricanes.
Of the top five highest water levels, three have occurred since 2020.
Helene took the crown last year, dethroning a record set 39 years before. During Helene, observed water levels reached more than 2 feet higher than the record set during Hurricane Elena in 1985.
Just like coastal areas, inland residents of Florida are no strangers to flooding.
When Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida's west coast last year, it was the third storm to do so in a few months. The waterlogged ground and Tampa Bay's infrastructure were unable to handle the record rainfall.
Rivers are a particular kind of beast. Water levels along rivers and lakes often lag weeks or months behind coastal areas after storms due to natural hydrological processes.
Milton set records across Tampa Bay. The Hillsborough River rose above 38 feet, shattering a 2017 record. The Withlacoochee River crested at nearly 20 feet, the highest in nearly a century, nine days after the storm passed.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, river forecasts are made by the National Water Prediction Service, which is under the National Weather Service.
The tool found at water.noaa.gov can show gauges for these sites. If you zoom in on Florida, you'll find little dots lighting up the entire state.
A caveat: There are lots of buttons and drop-downs to play with on this site; water levels are one aspect.
On one of its most basic levels, clicking on the dots displayed on the site will show a water body's current information and a forecast, if available.
A dot corresponds with an observation, while a square corresponds with a forecast.
Each colored dot or square corresponds with a water gauge. For example: green (no flooding), yellow (action), orange (minor flooding), red (moderate flooding) and purple (major flooding).
A newer version of the map was released last year that has more bells and whistles, like a 'flood inundation' section. A user can also display this section under the original map, but it will warn that the information is experimental.
In April 2024, a graphic found on the National Water Prediction Service product showed the Suwanee River at Manatee Springs was in a minor flooding stage, and it was expected to fall to an action level in the following days.
The blue line showed observed water levels, while the dotted purple line showed the water level forecast.
Should the National Weather Service place an area under a flood warning, the location will be highlighted in green. Clicking on the area will display the full advisory.
For information on tides: Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
To find the Coastal Inundation Dashboard: Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb.
For information on rivers: Water.noaa.gov.
A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times.
The Tampa Bay Times launched the Environment Hub in 2025 to focus on some of Florida's most urgent and enduring challenges. You can contribute through our journalism fund by clicking here.
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