Ron Johnson: The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill'

Wall Street Journal

12-05-2025

The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' that Congress is working on is certainly big, but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Too often the reality of these budget debates get obscured in details, politically charged issues and demagoguery. Let me attempt to clarify the current discussion by focusing on the most important facts and numbers.
In fiscal 2019, federal outlays totaled $4.45 trillion, or 20.6% of gross domestic product. This year, according to the Congressional Budget Office's January 2025 projection, total outlays will be $7.03 trillion, or 23.3% of GDP. That's a 58% increase over six years. The CBO projects federal outlays will total $89.3 trillion across fiscal 2026-35. Much of the blame goes to pandemic spending, but lockdowns are long over. There's nothing now to justify this abnormal level of government spending. Pathetically, Congress is having a hard time agreeing on a reduction of even $1.5 trillion from that 10-year amount. That's a 1.68% cut—a little more than a rounding error. My guess is that much of that minuscule decrease will be backloaded to the end of the 10 years for which Congress is now budgeting, increasing the probability those savings will never be realized.