Israel thinks Netanyahu is victorious against Iran – what will he do next?
In the United States, President Donald Trump claimed that both his diplomatic and military interventions had largely been responsible for halting the fighting, while the leaders of Iran and Israel each claimed to have secured a decisive win in a regional contest that dates back decades.
In Israel, however, the emerging narrative is that the end result of the conflict with Iran has solidified the position of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Just two weeks ago, Netanyahu was in real trouble. On the night before he ordered the unilateral strike on regional nemesis Iran, his governing coalition was only able to survive thanks to a last-minute deal with dissenting members. Public and political opinion had also appeared to have turned against his war on Gaza, and internationally, Israel's allies were beginning to protest the blockade of the Palestinian enclave.
Now, he can argue that he has severely weakened Israel's most dangerous regional enemy, Iran, and he claims that its nuclear programme has been destroyed and sent 'down the drain'.
Buoyed by rising poll numbers and the sense of having successfully confronted Iran, Netanyahu may, according to reports in Israel, seek to take advantage politically and call snap elections.
Having built up the threat of Iran over three decades, and repeatedly warned that his country's principal bogeyman was about to build a nuclear weapon despite Tehran's denials, Netanyahu can now take advantage of being seen as the man who ended that threat.
'Entire generations have grown up in Israel with this fear of Iran,' Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg said. 'There's a foundational narrative that there's this crazy state out there that, without any logic or reason, wants to destroy us.'
'My oldest daughter is 22 now, and has never known anything else,' Goldberg said. 'Netanyahu is now getting the credit for having confronted that.'
In a video statement released earlier today, Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich framed the conflict in characteristically apocalyptic terms, telling his social media followers, 'The State of Israel has defeated in the last twelve days the empire of evil that threatened the entire world and sought the destruction of Israel.'
That argument is supported by much of the Israeli public – which has largely supported right-wing and far-right parties in recent years.
'Netanyahu is stronger than ever,' Mitchell Barak, an Israeli pollster and former political aide to several senior Israeli political figures, including Netanyahu, told Al Jazeera. 'No one's going to bring him down, no one's going to challenge him, not his opponents, not his detractors, nobody.'
'He showed that Israel can go it alone. He held off, before American help, then continued alone. Bennett, Lapid can't challenge that,' Barak continued, referring to two former Israeli prime ministers, the right-wing Naftali Bennett and the centrist Yair Lapid, who are both opponents of Netanyahu.
However, how long the Israeli prime minister's perceived victory will last is uncertain. The Iranian government and its Islamic Republic form of governance remain in place, even as Netanyahu has repeatedly called for its overthrow. Netanyahu insinuated that regime change was a possible result of the conflict between Israel and Iran, and Trump used the term in a social media post on Sunday, before clarifying on Monday that he was opposed to regime change because it could lead to 'chaos'.
And despite Israeli claims, it is too early to have a definitive answer on the condition of Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes. The former, despite Israel's effective air defence systems, led to the deaths of at least 28 Israelis during the conflict, while Iran is likely to shroud its nuclear programme in secrecy going forward. Early intelligence assessments are reported to have determined that Iran's nuclear timeline has been delayed, but not destroyed.
And analysts have previously suggested to Al Jazeera that Iran is likely to accelerate its nuclear programme, with hardliners within the Iranian regime now even more convinced of the need for a plausible deterrent against Israel.
'There are a lot of unanswered questions out there, such as how much uranium remains enriched, or even where it is, but, in the short term, it doesn't really matter whether it's been destroyed or not,' Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow with Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, told Al Jazeera. 'Netanyahu and his allies in the White House will be able to spin it. What matters to them is that Iran has suffered a real physical and psychological blow.'
However, how long Netanyahu may be able to survive on spin alone remains far from certain, Mekelberg added. 'Every Houdini eventually comes across a lock they can't pick,' he said.
Netanyahu's actions since the start of Israel's war on Gaza in October 2023 have arguably made his country's position weaker in the long term. Israel's international isolation has increased, with revulsion worldwide at the Israeli military's actions in Gaza, where it has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians. Netanyahu himself is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, and South Africa has led a number of other countries in taking Israel to the International Court of Justice, accusing it of carrying out genocide in Gaza.
The images of those killed, including thousands of children, and the total destruction of Gaza, have spread on social media in particular, turning many in the West against Israel. This has become particularly noticeable in the US, where even on the right – traditionally a bastion of support for Israel – support for the country has become controversial.
And while Trump has shown himself to be a pro-Israeli president, the perception among many in his 'America First' movement that Israel dragged the US into a war against Iran has led to anger and heavy criticism of Israel among many of Trump's most prominent supporters.
Trump himself publicly reprimanded Israel after the latter planned to launch a large attack on Iran after the ceasefire began on Tuesday. Eventually, Israel conducted only a small and symbolic attack, following what it said was a ceasefire violation by Iran – one that Trump was clear did not warrant a response.
Some indication of the fury that has greeted Netanyahu's decision to abuse the terms of Trump's ceasefire was provided by Trump's former chief strategist and ally Steve Bannon. Speaking on his War Room podcast on Tuesday, Bannon called Netanyahu a 'bald-faced liar' and Israel a 'protectorate'.
Appearing to address Netanyahu directly, Bannon continued, 'You have the gall – particularly after what [Trump] did for you and the grief he's taken over here – you have the gall … When he said, 'This is what I've done, and I need you to be a partner, I need you to stand down first', you lied to him. That's why he's furious'.
Gaza deal?
While Israel can put the conflict with Iran behind it – for now – the war on Gaza continues, with no sign of Israel finding an alternative force to Hamas to rule the enclave, and no deal to secure the release of the Israeli captives still held in the Palestinian territory.
That may put a wrench in any plans for Netanyahu to secure another term as prime minister in the short term.
'I'm not so sure about snap elections,' Aida Touma-Suleiman, a member of parliament representing the Hadash-Ta'al Party, said.
'The polls are in Netanyahu's favour, but it's still not certain. I can't see Netanyahu going to the polls with Gaza still going on,' she added, suggesting that the prime minister might wait for the summer parliamentary recess on July 26, when he would be freer to negotiate some kind of conclusion to the war on the enclave.
Based on Netanyahu's attitude towards negotiations over the past 20 months, it is not clear that finding a deal to end the war on Gaza is something he wants. Instead, any deal is likely to require a significant push from Trump – if the US president wants to make one.
'I can't see how Netanyahu can reach any kind of settlement in Gaza,' Goldberg said. 'Everyone's waiting for Trump to act again … Negotiations with Hamas may start again, but it'll be Trump that imposes some kind of end to [the war].'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Al Jazeera
32 minutes ago
- Al Jazeera
UN report lists companies complicit in Israel's ‘genocide': Who are they?
The United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) has released a new report mapping the corporations aiding Israel in the displacement of Palestinians and its genocidal war on Gaza, in breach of international law. Francesca Albanese's latest report, which is scheduled to be presented at a news conference in Geneva on Thursday, names 48 corporate actors, including United States tech giants Microsoft, Alphabet Inc. – Google's parent company – and Amazon. A database of more than 1000 corporate entities was also put together as part of the investigation. '[Israel's] forever-occupation has become the ideal testing ground for arms manufacturers and Big Tech – providing significant supply and demand, little oversight, and zero accountability – while investors and private and public institutions profit freely,' the report said. 'Companies are no longer merely implicated in occupation – they may be embedded in an economy of genocide,' it said, in a reference to Israel's ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip. In an expert opinion last year, Albanese said there were 'reasonable grounds' to believe Israel was committing genocide in the besieged Palestinian enclave. The report stated that its findings illustrate 'why Israel's genocide continues'. 'Because it is lucrative for many,' it said. What arms and tech companies were identified in the report? Israel's procurement of F-35 fighter jets is part of the world's largest arms procurement programme, relying on at least 1,600 companies across eight nations. It is led by US-based Lockheed Martin, but F-35 components are constructed globally. Italian manufacturer Leonardo S.p.A is listed as a main contributor in the military sector, while Japan's FANUC Corporation provides robotic machinery for weapons production lines. The tech sector, meanwhile, has enabled the collection, storage and governmental use of biometric data on Palestinians, 'supporting Israel's discriminatory permit regime', the report said. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon grant Israel 'virtually government-wide access to their cloud and AI technologies', enhancing its data processing and surveillance capacities. The US tech company IBM has also been responsible for training military and intelligence personnel, as well as managing the central database of Israel's Population, Immigration and Borders Authority (PIBA) that stores the biometric data of Palestinians, the report said. It found US software platform Palantir Technologies expanded its support to the Israeli military since the start of the war on Gaza in October 2023. The report said there were 'reasonable grounds' to believe the company provided automatic predictive policing technology used for automated decision-making in the battlefield, to process data and generate lists of targets including through artificial intelligence systems like 'Lavender', 'Gospel' and 'Where's Daddy?' What other companies are identified in the report? The report also lists several companies developing civilian technologies that serve as 'dual-use tools' for Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory. These include Caterpillar, Leonardo-owned Rada Electronic Industries, South Korea's HD Hyundai and Sweden's Volvo Group, which provide heavy machinery for home demolitions and the development of illegal settlements in the West Bank. Rental platforms Booking and Airbnb also aid illegal settlements by listing properties and hotel rooms in Israeli-occupied territory. The report named the US's Drummond Company and Switzerland's Glencore as the primary suppliers of coal for electricity to Israel, originating primarily from Colombia. In the agriculture sector, Chinese Bright Dairy & Food is a majority owner of Tnuva, Israel's largest food conglomerate, which benefits from land seized from Palestinians in Israel's illegal outposts. Netafim, a company providing drip irrigation technology that is 80-percent owned by Mexico's Orbia Advance Corporation, provides infrastructure to exploit water resources in the occupied West Bank. Treasury bonds have also played a critical role in funding the ongoing war on Gaza, according to the report, with some of the world's largest banks, including France's BNP Paribas and the UK's Barclays, listed as having stepped in to allow Israel to contain the interest rate premium despite a credit downgrade. Who are the main investors behind these companies? The report identified US multinational investment companies BlackRock and Vanguard as the main investors behind several listed companies. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, is listed as the second largest institutional investor in Palantir (8.6 percent), Microsoft (7.8 percent), Amazon (6.6 percent), Alphabet (6.6 percent) and IBM (8.6 per cent), and the third largest in Lockheed Martin (7.2 percent) and Caterpillar (7.5 percent). Vanguard, the world's second-largest asset manager, is the largest institutional investor in Caterpillar (9.8 percent), Chevron (8.9 percent) and Palantir (9.1 percent), and the second largest in Lockheed Martin (9.2 percent) and Israeli weapons manufacturer Elbit Systems (2 percent). Are companies profiting from dealing with Israel? The report states that 'colonial endeavours and their associated genocides have historically been driven and enabled by the corporate sector.' Israel's expansion on Palestinian land is one example of 'colonial racial capitalism', where corporate entities profit from an illegal occupation. Since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October 2023, 'entities that previously enabled and profited from Palestinian elimination and erasure within the economy of occupation, instead of disengaging are now involved in the economy of genocide,' the report said. For foreign arms companies, the war has been a lucrative venture. Israel's military spending from 2023 to 2024 surged 65 percent, amounting to $46.5bn – one of the highest per capita worldwide. Several entities listed on the exchange market – particularly in the arms, tech and infrastructure sectors – have seen their profits rise since October 2023. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange also rose an unprecedented 179 percent, adding $157.9bn in market value. Global insurance companies, including Allianz and AXA, invested large sums in shares and bonds linked to Israel's occupation, the report said, partly as capital reserves but primarily to generate returns. Booking and Airbnb also continue to profit from rentals in Israeli-occupied land. Airbnb briefly delisted properties on illegal settlements in 2018 but later reverted to donating profits from such listings to humanitarian causes, a practice the report referred to as 'humanitarian-washing'. Are private companies liable under international law? According to Albanese's report, yes. Corporate entities are under an obligation to avoid violating human rights through direct action or in their business partnerships. States have the primary responsibility to ensure that corporate entities respect human rights and must prevent, investigate and punish abuses by private actors. However, corporations must respect human rights even if the state where they operate does not. A company must therefore assess whether activities or relationships throughout its supply chain risk causing human rights violations or contributing to them, according to the report. The failure to act in line with international law may result in criminal liability. Individual executives can be held criminally liable, including before international courts. The report called on companies to divest from all activities linked to Israel's occupation of Palestinian territory, which is illegal under international law. In July 2024, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory opinion ruling that Israel's continued presence in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem should come to an end 'as rapidly as possible'. In light of this advisory opinion, the UN General Assembly demanded that Israel bring to an end its unlawful presence in the occupied Palestinian territory by September 2025. Albanese's report said the ICJ's ruling 'effectively qualifies the occupation as an act of aggression … Consequently, any dealings that support or sustain the occupation and its associated apparatus may amount to complicity in an international crime under the Rome Statute. 'States must not provide aid or assistance or enter into economic or trade dealings, and must take steps to prevent trade or investment relations that would assist in maintaining the illegal situation created by Israel in the oPt.'
Al Jazeera
2 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
By sacrificing Palestine, Europe betrays itself
'Law is interpreted for friends and applied to enemies,' Italian statesman Giovanni Giolitti once said. There are few better examples of this than the way the European Union bends over backwards to avoid addressing Israel's severe breaches of international law and the terms of its association agreement with the bloc. On May 20, the EU's Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) voted to conduct a review of whether Israel was denying Palestinians' human rights by preventing humanitarian aid from entering Gaza. A month later, the same body concluded: 'There are indications that Israel would be in breach of its human rights obligations under Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.' Indications … On June 26, EU heads of government at a European Council meeting concluded that they 'noted' those indications and invited the FAC to 'continue discussions' in July. It is understandable that some initially welcomed the vote to review the EU-Israel Association Agreement back in May. It is only human to hold on to anything that gives hope that action will finally be taken to protect the human rights of the Palestinian people. Unfortunately, the entire 'debate' over the EU-Israel Association Agreement is simply a sham. It does not represent serious action on by the EU to address the atrocities Israel is committing in Gaza and elsewhere in the occupied Palestinian territory. It deflects growing criticism by giving the impression that the EU may finally be thinking of doing something. More importantly, it distracts from the obligations which the EU and its members are legally bound to fulfil. Human rights pretences Twenty months into Israel's devastating war in Gaza, Israel's breaches of human rights and international law are so extensive that there can be no doubt about their relevance to the EU-Israel Association Agreement. They are so numerous that they must be organised into categories to capture the depth and breadth of destruction wrought onto every aspect of life in Gaza. Israel has been accused of intentionally creating conditions calculated to destroy the possibility for Palestinian life in the Strip, which amounts to genocide. This includes domicide and the laying to waste of Gaza's urban landscape; medicide – systematically dismantling the healthcare system; scholasticide – destroying schools, universities and libraries; ecocide – wiping out Gaza's agriculture and nature; econocide – the devastation of Gaza's economy; and unchilding – making childhood impossible. More than 90 percent of Gaza's population, or 1.9 million people, have been displaced, and in the past three months alone, over 600,000 people have been displaced again, as many as 10 times or more. A full blockade was imposed by the Israelis since March 2, and meagre aid deliveries were reinstated only in late May. Famine is widespread; 66 children have died of starvation, and more than 5,000 were hospitalised with acute malnutrition in May alone. Under pressure from European public opinion, which is increasingly rejecting European support for Israel, the EU finally decided to do something. But that something involved a fair bit of talking and – so far – no action. The bloc decided to vote on reviewing the EU-Israel Association Agreement. But this was nothing out of the ordinary because all association agreements should be subject to regular reviews, which can trigger either advances or scaling back the depth and breadth of relations. In fact, those who called for the vote knew very well that suspension of the agreement requires a unanimous vote by 27 member states, which is currently impossible. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and member states, such as Germany, Italy and Hungary, have made crystal clear their unwavering support for Israel. In these circumstances, hoping for a unanimous vote to suspend the agreement is close to delusional. A qualified majority vote might suspend parts of the agreement on trade, but that is the most one can hope for. This is hardly a ringing endorsement of the Union's commitment to human rights and 'fundamental values'. Instead, public invocations by governments and officials of Article 2 of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which states that all areas covered by the agreement itself 'shall be based on respect for human rights', are no more than empty rhetoric. In reality, the EU never intended for these human rights conditionalities to be taken seriously. It is easy to see why; it never specified by what criteria human rights should be assessed, and it chose not to make these assessments routine, compulsory, and public. In this way, the EU leaves itself enough space to claim it values 'human rights and fundamental values' while, in fact, 'interpreting away' its own rules to avoid having to take any significant action. Empty rhetoric Some European states have decided to take individual action, but what they have done has been just as meaningless as the EU agreement review. The United Kingdom suspended trade talks with Israel, but not trade. Its recent communique alongside France and Canada was trumpeted as 'tougher' than the EU's statements. Yet, the communique opposes only Israel's 'expansion of military operations in Gaza': It takes issue only with the extension and intensification of Israel's assault, not with the devastation wrought upon the Strip so far. Nor does it mention the war crimes Israel has been accused of, or declare a commitment to uphold the International Criminal Court's (ICC) arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. In fact, despite the UK summoning Israel's ambassador after its 'tough' joint statement with France and Canada, it continued its surveillance flights over or close to Gaza's airspace, which are suspected of gathering intelligence for the Israeli army. France, for its part, declared it would recognise a Palestinian state in June. June came and went without recognition. In October 2023, Spain claimed that it stopped selling weapons to Israel. In May, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez declared, 'We do not do business with a genocidal state.' And yet, a Barcelona-based think tank revealed recently the existence of more than 40 contracts between Spanish state institutions and Israeli defence companies. Germany, France, the UK and Italy also continue to supply weapons in breach of the spirit of international law. Legal obligations If European governments were serious about responding to Israel's crimes, they could do that by simply abiding by their legal obligations under the various EU treaties and international law. The EU Charter of Fundamental Rights and the Lisbon Treaty require the bloc to embed respect for 'democracy, human rights and fundamental values' into all EU policies. This is why all association agreements have human rights conditionalities in the first place. The Genocide Convention imposes a preventive duty to use 'all means reasonably available' to prevent genocide. Already in January 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accepted that Palestinians' right to be protected from genocide may be being violated. The actions EU states can take include, but are not limited to: halting arms contracts with the Israeli government and Israeli companies; suspending intelligence cooperation; and cutting commercial, cultural and research exchanges with and funding for Israeli private and public institutions on occupied Palestinian land. They should also support the rigorous application of international law, including backing the case against Israel at the ICJ and enforcing arrest warrants issued by the ICC. Currently, the EU is in flagrant violation of its legal duties and its own rules. That is a direct consequence of decades of ignoring gross abuses by Israel and other associated states, including Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt. No amount of 'interpreting' law or hiding behind procedure can mask the fact that the EU is in flagrant violation of its legal obligations and the spirit of its own rules. It has a track record of ignoring continued human rights abuses in associated states, including Israel, Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, and Jordan. This track record has reached an ignominious peak since October 2023. Inaction on Gaza reveals the limits of Europe's commitment to its self-proclaimed values: by sacrificing Palestine, Europe betrays itself. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial stance.
Al Jazeera
4 hours ago
- Al Jazeera
Trump might ‘take a look' at possible Elon Musk deportation
Trump might 'take a look' at possible Elon Musk deportation NewsFeed 'DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon.' Donald Trump said he would 'take a look' at the possibility of Elon Musk being deported. Musk has criticised Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' for what he called 'insane spending' and renewed his call for a new political party. Video Duration 00 minutes 55 seconds 00:55 Video Duration 00 minutes 27 seconds 00:27 Video Duration 00 minutes 51 seconds 00:51 Video Duration 02 minutes 40 seconds 02:40 Video Duration 01 minutes 29 seconds 01:29 Video Duration 01 minutes 28 seconds 01:28 Video Duration 01 minutes 13 seconds 01:13
