Oil drops as Opec+ plans to raise output, US tariffs beat sentiment

Gulf Today

05-03-2025

Oil prices fell for a third session on Wednesday as plans by major producers to raise output in April combined with concerns US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will slow economic and fuel demand growth hammered investor sentiment.
Brent futures eased 15 cents lower to $70.89 a barrel at 0200 GMT. In the previous session, the contract fell to as low as $69.75, its lowest since September 11, and settled at their lowest since that day as well.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 40 cents a barrel, or 0.6%, at $67.86 after settling at its lowest since December. Prices fell to as low as $66.77 in the previous session, the lowest since November 18.
The 'Opec+ decision to start increasing production again is a materially bearish development, loosening markets at a time that US macro data are starting to soften,' analysts at Citi said in a note.
The organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, a group known as Opec+, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022.
The group will make a small increase of 138,000 barrels per day from April, the first step in planned monthly increases to unwind its nearly 6 million bpd of cuts, equal to nearly 6% of global demand.
A 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico, a 10% tariff on Canadian energy and a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20% came into effect on Tuesday. The Trump administration also imposed 25% tariffs on all other Canadian imports.
US President Donald Trump's self-declared trade war is seen by economists as a recipe for fewer jobs, slower growth, and higher prices, which could kill demand. The lower economic growth will likely impact fuel consumption in the world's biggest oil consumer.
US retail gasoline prices are set to climb in the coming weeks as the new tariffs raise the cost of energy imports, according to traders and analysts.
The Trump administration also said on Tuesday it was ending a license that the US has granted to US oil producer Chevron since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil.
US crude oil stocks fell by 1.46 million barrels in the week ended February 28, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Investors now await government data on US stockpiles, due on Wednesday.
The dollar hit three-month lows on Wednesday as the U.S.' trade war with its partners escalated, while a major overhaul to German government borrowing triggered the biggest sell-off in the country's debt since the late 1990s.
In addition to the cocktail of tariffs and a seismic shift in German fiscal policy, investors also scrutinised the start of China's annual sessions of its parliament, the National People's Congress, at which Beijing retained a goal of roughly 5% economic growth for 2025.
The euro hit its highest in four months, while European stocks surged. The biggest casualties were longer-dated German government bonds, caught up in their worst one-day selloff in more than 25 years as yields ripped higher.
Overnight, German political parties agreed to a 500 billion-euro ($534.75 billion) infrastructure fund and, crucially, an overhaul in borrowing limits that economists billed as 'a really big bazooka'.
'Last night Germany announced plans for one of the largest fiscal regime shifts in post-war history, perhaps with reunification 35 years ago being the only rival,' Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.
'Everything you thought you knew about Germany's economic prospects three months ago, or even three weeks ago, should be ripped up and you should start your analysis from fresh,' he said.
German 30-year yields - the rate the government pays to borrow over the very long term - rose by almost a quarter of a percentage point in early trading, on track for their largest rise since October 1998.
The 30-year bond yield was last up 20 basis points at 3.03%.
'It's a recognition that something has changed. Germany is the benchmark against which all these other markets are measured. And so this big transition in German fiscal policy is significant,' Dario Perkins, managing director, global macro at TS Lombard, said.
'We're a long way away from worrying about German fiscal problems. People have been pleading that Germany spends for the last 20 years.' Longer-dated yields elsewhere rose too, with French 30-year rates up 15 basis points at 4.0% and Italian 30-year bonds yielding 4.517%, up 17 bps.
Europe's STOXX 600 jumped by more than 1.2% to record highs. The prospect of a meaningful increase in European spending on security has sent the region's defence stocks soaring this month.
US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China went into effect on Tuesday, when President Donald Trump also delivered his State of the Union address, in which he touted his successes since taking office six weeks ago.