Calculating The Fair Value Of Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI)
Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Li Auto fair value estimate is US$27.90
Current share price of US$27.90 suggests Li Auto is potentially trading close to its fair value
Analyst price target for LI is CN¥33.84, which is 21% above our fair value estimate
Does the May share price for Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)
CN¥10.4b
CN¥29.0b
CN¥32.7b
CN¥15.0b
CN¥27.3b
CN¥25.8b
CN¥25.1b
CN¥24.8b
CN¥24.8b
CN¥25.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x7
Analyst x8
Analyst x8
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -5.29%
Est @ -2.82%
Est @ -1.09%
Est @ 0.12%
Est @ 0.96%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 13%
CN¥9.2k
CN¥22.7k
CN¥22.7k
CN¥9.2k
CN¥14.8k
CN¥12.4k
CN¥10.7k
CN¥9.4k
CN¥8.3k
CN¥7.4k
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥127b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 13%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥25b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (13%– 2.9%) = CN¥258b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥258b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= CN¥76b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥203b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$27.9, the company appears about fair value at a 0.002% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Li Auto as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.898. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Li Auto
Strength
Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Li Auto, there are three essential factors you should explore:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Li Auto that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does LI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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About PANOVA-4 PANOVA-4 is an international, multi-center, Phase 2 clinical trial designed to test the safety and efficacy of Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) therapy together with atezolizumab, gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel for the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer. The primary endpoint is disease control rate. Secondary endpoints include overall survival, progression-free survival, one-year survival rate, objective response rate, progression-free survival at six months, duration of response, and toxicity. The study is designed to enroll 76 patients and enrollment is complete. About Pancreatic Cancer in China Pancreatic cancer is one of the most common and deadliest cancers globally. In China, there were an estimated 134,374 new cases in 2022, and it is now the eighth most common cancer type 1. The current median survival of patients with locally advanced, unresectable pancreatic cancer is nine to twelve months, and the five-year survival rate was 7.2% 2, making it the malignancy with the lowest survival rate in China. 1 Xia C, Dong X, Li H et al. Cancer statistics in China and United States, 2022: profiles, trends, and determinants. Chin Med J (Engl) 2022; 135: 584-590. 2 Hu JX, Zhao CF, Chen WB et al. Pancreatic cancer: A review of epidemiology, trend, and risk factors. World J Gastroenterol 2021; 27: 4298-4321. About Tumor Treating Fields Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) are electric fields that exert physical forces to kill cancer cells via a variety of mechanisms. TTFields do not significantly affect healthy cells because they have different properties (including division rate, morphology, and electrical properties) than cancer cells. These multiple, distinct mechanisms work together to target and kill cancer cells. Due to these multimechanistic actions, TTFields therapy can be added to cancer treatment modalities in approved indications and demonstrates enhanced effects across solid tumor types when used with chemotherapy, radiotherapy, immune checkpoint inhibition, or targeted therapies in preclinical models. TTFields therapy provides clinical versatility that has the potential to help address treatment challenges across a range of solid tumors. To learn more about TTFields therapy and its multifaceted effect on cancer cells, visit About Zai Lab Zai Lab is an innovative, research-based, commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company based in China and the United States. We are focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing innovative products that address medical conditions with significant unmet needs in the areas of oncology, immunology, neuroscience and infectious disease. Our goal is to leverage our competencies and resources to positively impact human health worldwide. 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Forward-looking statements are based on our expectations and assumptions as of the date of this press release and are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks, and changes in circumstances that may differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. 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