Trade war, recession fears put stocks on path for biggest daily drop since 2008

Zawya

07-04-2025

The emerging market stocks index on Monday was heading for its biggest one-day selloff since the 2008 global financial crisis, as U.S. President Donald Trump remained determined to upend the global trade order that markets worry could trigger a recession.
Investors started the week parsing Trump's comments that signaled they would have to endure more pain and he would not do a deal with China until the U.S. trade deficit was sorted out, which drove MSCI's EM stocks index down by 7.9%.
A currencies gauge weakened 0.4% to the dollar and was set for its largest daily drop since November, with those of China, India dipping 0.4% each, while South Africa's rand and Mexico's peso weakened over 1% each.
Financial assets in the developed, developing and the frontier world along with commodity prices were extending last week's rout after the U.S. President's restrictive trade policies was met with quick retaliation from Beijing, fanning worries that a global trade war could weigh on economic performance.
Investors are also anticipating a response from Europe this week, while other trade-reliant economies in south east Asia are hoping to strike trade deals with the U.S.
"Investors had assumed Trump's trade taxes were a bargaining tool, as during the first term. If the competence of policymaking is questioned, markets will worry that economic damage will be lasting," said from Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
On Monday, equities in China slid 7% and those in Hong Kong tanked 13.2% - its steepest decline since 1997. Brokerage Goldman Sachs said it expects Chinese policymakers to accelerate fiscal easing measures significantly to offset the repercussions of higher tariffs.
MSCI's index tracking Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 8.4% and a plunge in Korean shares triggered a trading curb for the first time in eight months.
Investors also began to bet on the increasing likelihood of corporate and sovereign credit defaults, as the five-year credit default swap spread on the Markit Itraxx Asia ex-Japan index, widening to its highest since August last year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.
The default swaps on China jumped 82 basis points, while that of South Africa climbed seven bps.
International sovereign bonds of a number of frontier markets also suffered sharp selloffs with those of Sri Lanka , Egypt and Kenya falling over 4 cents on the dollar.
Markets were pricing in that a stronger dollar against weaker emerging market currencies, combined with a weak global trade environment could increase the risk of a debt spiral in emerging markets.
Some economies such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan were just regaining their footing after defaults triggered by the COVID pandemic.
Pakistan's hard-currency bonds lost over 10 cents putting it below the 70 mark, widely perceived as distressed debt.
Worries of a global recession also had markets pencilling in the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve could lower borrowing costs by at least five 25 basis points by December, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Markets are also expecting sluggish economic performance to also speed up interest rate cuts by central banks in developing economies at their upcoming monetary policy meets, such as India and Singapore.
The market rout continued, with equities in South Africa Indian and Turkey falling about 2% to 4% each.
An index tracking central and eastern European stocks tumbled 4.7%, with those of more open economies such as Czech Republic and Hungary falling 5.4% and 6.9%, respectively.
Hungary's forint depreciated 0.5% against the euro and Poland's zloty dropped 0.8%.
Currencies such as the euro and Swiss franc outperformed the dollar as markets priced in the likelihood that the U.S. economy could also be hit with a recession, in the face of tighter trade.
(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber)