Explainer: Drones blunt the impact of expensive tech aimed at protecting against missiles, jets
Its interception range is up to 70km against aircraft and cruise missiles for the Patriot PAC-2 version, and between 20km and 35km against ballistic missiles for the Patriot PAC-3, according to US Army data.
Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the PAC-3 MSE missile, plans to increase production from 500 missiles in 2024 to 650 in 2027.
Raytheon, which produces the missiles for PAC-2, expects to boost its monthly output by 150% by 2028, Tom Laliberty, its president in charge of air defence systems, told AFP. He did not, however, reveal its current production level.
How useful against Russian attacks?
The challenge for Ukrainians is that the Russians are aiming more airborne weapons at their cities — including many cheap drones — and these attacks are also becoming increasingly effective.
Over the past week, Russia launched over 1800 Geran-2 (the Russian version of the Iranian Shahed-136) alongside decoy long-range drones, according to Fabian Hoffman, a research fellow at the University of Oslo.
'This marks a sharp increase in the average intensity of long-range drone attacks per day, peaking at 728 combined drones and decoys on July 9', not counting ballistic and cruise missiles, he said.
In comparison, the most intense salvo in the last northern winter, on February 23, involved 267 drones.
While Patriots are useful against high-performance missiles, their deployment against a mass of Shahed drones is 'a waste of resources', researcher Joseph Henrotin, who is editor-in-chief of the Defence and International Security journal, said in a podcast last week.
Each Geran-2 costs an estimated US$30,000 to US$70,000, according to Hoffman, who said that Western arsenals currently lack cost-effective interceptors for defence against long-range drones.
'This forces Ukraine — and, in a future conflict, European states — to choose between expending interceptor missiles that cost 20 times more than the drone, relying on anti-aircraft guns that are not widely available, or allowing the drone through and accepting the resulting damage,' he said.
Even against manoeuvring Russian ballistic missiles like the Iskander or Kinzhal, the Patriot's performance is limited.
'Until a few weeks ago, Patriots regularly intercepted Iskander missiles. Now, they struggle more because the Russians have started using their manoeuvring capabilities,' said a European missile defence specialist who did not wish to be identified.
The rate of successful interceptions of such missiles has fallen by about 10% from last northern winter to 86% currently, said Henrotin.
What impact on the course of the war?
With its missile strikes aimed at cities, Russia is forcing Ukraine to allocate significant resources to the protection of its population.
'Additional means can indeed help to better concentrate Ukraine's air defence efforts,' said one Western military source who declined to be named.
However, the overall trend points to a slow and steady weakening of Ukrainian positions amid Russian territorial gains.
'I fear that Russia might be able to last five minutes longer' than Western support for Ukraine, French armed forces chief-of-staff Thierry Burkhard said last month.
And even if the US delivers Patriot systems to Ukraine 'over the next year or two', Russia will be able to hike missile and drone production in response, said a high-ranking Western officer who declined to be named.
The current annual production of Patriot systems - between 850 and 880 - is only just above the lowest estimate for Iskander and Kinzhal production, cautioned Hoffman.
Russian cruise missile production, of the Kalibr et Kh-101 type, is greater still, he said.
-Agence France-Presse
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RNZ News
5 hours ago
- RNZ News
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NZ Herald
7 hours ago
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NZ Herald
9 hours ago
- NZ Herald
‘He really miscalculated the reaction' - new curbs on anti-corruption watchdogs have alarmed Ukrainians
The protesters arrived with their children and dogs, on prosthetic legs and in wheelchairs, carrying blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flags and shouting for the Government to revoke the law, which has stoked immense public outrage, alarmed former officials and raised consternation among Ukraine's European allies who are becoming the country's main lifeline for weapons and economic aid amid uncertain support from the United States. A woman stands wrapped in a Ukrainian flag during Wednesday's protests. Photo / Ed Ram, for the Washington Post 'This is how democracy should look,' said Anton Avrynskyi, 41, a tech entrepreneur who joined the crowds with his wife, Vitaliia, and their 9-year-old son, Ivan. During wartime, the country must stay united behind the president, he said - but should also not fear correcting his mistakes. 'We are here to help him not make wrong decisions,' Avrynskyi said. The law has put a spotlight on Ukraine's history of endemic corruption, which has long been used by the country's detractors to criticise it. It could also affect Ukraine's candidacy to join the European Union. As crowds gathered for a second night in a row, Zelenskyy showed signs of imminent backtracking. The President said he had 'heard what people are saying these days' and would propose 'a plan of concrete steps that could strengthen the rule of law in Ukraine'. He suggested a draft law that would ensure the independence of all of the country's anti-corruption institutions. The masses appeared unsatisfied with his response, and many said they were appalled by how quickly the Government rammed through the law without assessing public opinion, which some saw as a signal it was veering towards unchecked autocracy. Mariia Golota, 35, who is nearly nine months pregnant, carried a sign that read 'I want to give birth in a fair Ukraine'. 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Some young people climbed onto the theatre's balconies, waving Ukrainian flags and leading the cheers. Others perched on fountains and statues or put out lawn chairs and picnic blankets. Oleh, 39, a Ukrainian soldier, lost his left leg in battle late last year. He said he joined the crowds because he fears the law will risk Ukraine's future in the European Union - the same future he fought for in the country's east until he stepped on a Russian antipersonnel mine near the city of Toretsk. 'It's just offensive even as a civilian,' Oleh said. 'From a military standpoint, it's also offensive that those boys are standing there fighting, and in-house this is what's happening.' Barbara Varvara, 18, walked with her dog, Manya, who was put up for adoption after she was wounded in the eastern Donetsk region several months ago. A sign around Manya's neck read: 'Soon, even dogs won't want to live here'. 'We have so much corruption in our country and we can't do anything,' Varvara said. 'I'm here to show we are against that.' The law, which was adopted by the parliament and signed by Zelenskyy, places Nabu and Sapo under the control of the general prosecutor's office, which critics say effectively abolishes their independence. The two institutions were the main anti-corruption bodies created as part of an aggressive campaign against public graft and other malfeasance since Ukraine's 2014 Maidan Revolution, when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets in part because they were fed up with rampant corruption under President Viktor Yanukovych. The two bodies functioned free of outside control. Yesterday, Zelenskyy, who had tried to frame the law as a way of strengthening the anti-corruption effort, met the heads of the country's law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies, including Nabu and Sapo. After the meeting, however, Nabu and Sapo issued a joint statement, saying that the 'legislative changes adopted yesterday significantly limit' their independence. 'To restore full and independent work, clear and unambiguous steps are needed at the legislative level to restore the guarantees that were abolished by parliament,' the statement said. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, who attended the first protest on Wednesday, posted on social media that those responsible for the law were 'dragging Ukraine faster into authoritarianism'. Ukrainian lawmakers who voted against the bill said Zelenskyy severely underestimated both the domestic and international reaction to the move, which is seen as an effort to rein in officials tasked with independently investigating corruption cases - including those that may reach close to the President's inner circle. The move appeared to reflect Zelenskyy's growing distance from the generation that ushered in a new democratic era after the 2014 revolution - many of whom are now among those fighting on the front lines for the same democratic values they championed on the streets more than a decade ago. 'The scariest thing is that it will be used by our foes,' said Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a lawmaker from Ukraine's European Solidarity Party, who fears outsiders will use the debacle to try to paint Ukraine as a nation that remains mired in corruption. Klympush-Tsintsadze, who worked extensively on Ukraine's bid to join the EU, voted against the law. Protesters gather on a road leading to the Ukrainian president's office. Photo / Ed Ram, for the Washington Post Russia, which has long amplified the narrative of corruption in Ukraine, was quick to leap on the development, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying yesterday that American and European tax dollars have 'been plundered'. Russia has long been criticized by the West for having one of the world's worst records on corruption. Zelenskyy's signing of the law tested the unwritten agreement between Ukrainian society and government that there will not be a political uprising during wartime because of the shared understanding that Russia is the enemy, said Volodymyr Ariev, a lawmaker who belongs to the same party as Klympush-Tsintsadze. 'He really miscalculated the reaction of the society,' he said of Zelenskyy. 'We are fighting against Russia not only as a country but as a model.' European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Zelenskyy to convey 'her strong concerns about the consequences of the amendments' and 'requested the Ukrainian Government for explanations', a spokesperson for the European Commission said. 'The respect for the rule of law and the fight against corruption are core elements of the European Union,' the spokesperson said. 'As a candidate country, Ukraine is expected to uphold these standards fully. There cannot be a compromise.' On Tuesday, agents from Ukraine's security service, the SBU, the general prosecutor's office, and the State Bureau of Investigation raided Nabu offices, claiming the existence of a 'Russian 'mole' in one of the bureau's elite units,' SBU head Vasyl Maliuk said. Many Ukrainians flatly rejected the Government's justifications for the law, however. The move against the agencies also comes a month after Nabu opened a criminal case against Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov on charges of 'abuse of office and receiving undue benefits in substantial amounts for himself and third parties'. It was one of the highest-level corruption cases since Zelenskyy became president six years ago, targeting one of the closest allies of his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Chernyshov denied the charges, but he lost his position in last week's government reshuffle.
