Deep-sea volcano off Oregon is rumbling again, likely to erupt anytime soon
Deep below the Pacific, a restless seafloor volcano off Oregon is showing signs it may soon stir again.
Axial Seamount, a submarine volcano located nearly a mile beneath the ocean surface, is flexing its geologic muscles.
Perched on a hot spot along the Juan de Fuca Ridge, where the Pacific and Juan de Fuca tectonic plates are slowly pulling apart, the volcano is steadily inflating with magma, increasing the frequency of small earthquakes.
Researchers with the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative, which operates the Regional Cabled Array at the University of Washington, say the uptick in seismic activity suggests an eruption may be near.
'At the moment, there are a couple hundred earthquakes a day, but that's still a lot less than we saw before the previous eruption,' said William Wilcock, a marine geophysicist at the University of Washington.
While predicting the exact timing is tricky, Wilcock said an eruption could occur anytime between later this year and early 2026 — or even tomorrow.
'I would say it was going to erupt sometime later (this year) or early 2026, but it could be tomorrow, because it's completely unpredictable.'
The researchers also said that the region could witness thousands of small-scale earthquakes as the volcano erupts underwater.
In 2015, 10,000 earthquakes were recorded within 24 hours as magma flowed out of the seafloor volcano for a month, trailing about 25 miles (40 kilometers) underwater. Axial Seamount's magma chamber has collapsed several times over the years, leaving behind a deep, wide basin known as a caldera.
Despite the extreme conditions, life flourishes here. Hydrothermal vents scattered across the caldera floor release mineral-rich fluids into the icy seawater, creating plumes teeming with microbes — a phenomenon scientists call 'snowblowers.'
While past eruptions have wiped out the tiny creatures clustered around these vents, their return is surprisingly swift. Within just a few months, the ecosystem begins to regenerate.
'I think it's one of the biggest discoveries we've made,' said Kelley, a professor of marine geology and geophysics at the University of Washington, in a statement.
'Life thrives in these inhospitable environments, and volcanoes are probably one of the major sources of life in our oceans.'
Marine life, she said, may feel the seismic shifting after the eruption, but the activity could go unnoticed by people on land.
'It's not a very explosive event. You won't see the ash clouds above water, anything like that,' Kelly said.
'It's like if you put a mile of seawater on top of Kilauea … you may see some fountaining, but that's it.'
Researchers said that the eruptions are most likely to occur between January and April, as previous events in 1998, 2011, and 2015 took place during this period. Scientists suspect that seasonal gravitational shifts play a role as Earth moves farther from the sun during the early months of the year.
The moon's pull on ocean tides causes regular changes in pressure along the seafloor, and when magma is already close to the surface, even minor stress variations can make a difference.
High tides, in particular, seem to coincide with more frequent seismic activity near the caldera, possibly pushing the magma chamber past its breaking point.
The observatory plans to publicly livestream the event the next time the volcano erupts.
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