Latest news with #WilliamWilcock
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Underwater Pacific volcano expected to erupt. What would that mean for WA?
If you've never heard of the Axial Seamount, you'd be forgiven. But the underwater volcano has made national news recently after research suggested it is likely nearing its first eruption in 10 years. The mountain is located around 300 miles off the northern Oregon coast, where the Pacific and Juan de Fuca plates meet — 4,600 feet below the surface. 'It's on an ocean spreading center, which is on one side of the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate, and the other side is the side that's subducting beneath the subduction zone,' William Wilcock, a University of Washington professor researching the volcano, told McClatchy in a phone call. The volcano has erupted three times since 1998, with the most recent one in 2015. Recently, researchers have noticed that magma build-up has caused the volcano to inflate to near the levels seen in previous eruptions. 'The model that Bill Chadwick, who's at Oregon State University, and Scott Nooner at North Carolina, Wilmington, they basically observed… So there have been eruptions in 1998, 2011 and 2015. And they noted that the eruption in 2011 occurred at about the same amount of inflation,' Wilcock said. If the theory is correct, it will provide insight into how researchers can predict other volcanic eruptions, Wilcock said. 'Why this volcano is interesting is the magma chamber beneath the volcano is pretty shallow. It's less than a mile deep… I think this volcano behaves in a more simple way than other volcanoes. So I think other volcanoes, they're not as predictable like this,' Wilcock said. Another key indicator of when the volcano will erupt is seismic activity. At the time of a UW news release in late April, the volcano was seeing around 200 to 300 earthquakes a day on average, with that number reaching 1,000 some days. That's well below the 2,000 earthquake-a-day average that it was seeing in the lead-up to its last eruption, and Wilcock said there's actually been a decrease in seismic activity. 'That's actually gone down a little bit down to more like between 100 to 200 a day at the moment, but it varies from week to week,' Wilcock said. According to Wilcock, he expects the number of earthquakes a day to reach 500 before the volcano erupts. 'Over that six months, the number increased from basically 500 a day to 2,000 a day,' Wilcock said. 'And so we're not at 2000 a day at the moment, but then it was inflating at two feet a year. Now it's inflating more slowly. So we might not expect quite as many, but I think I would expect at least 500 a day.' According to Wilcock, experts expect the volcano to erupt sometime this year or next year, but that it's difficult to pinpoint exactly when 'I think, based on the seismicity, we think it might be a little further away than the other predictions… But I think everybody would say that if it's not going to go this year, it's probably next year,' Wilcock said. While a volcanic eruption and thousands of earthquakes a day off the coast of northern Oregon might sound frightening, Wilcock said the volcano is too far away from land for its effects to be noticeable. 'These earthquakes are really small,' Wilcock said. 'They're magnitude twos and threes. It's a very small effect, and so it's not going to have any impact in the subduction zone 300 miles away.' Additionally, seismic activity around the volcano isn't linked to seismic activity on land, so it isn't expected to trigger any earthquakes in Washington or Oregon. It will have an effect on the marine ecosystem, but Wilcock said that the impacted species will recover quickly. 'When it erupts, you know, many of those are many of those, the bigger organisms we kill, but they will repopulate pretty quickly,' Wilcock said. 'Then the nutrients that come out of the volcano are actually very good for the microbial community.'
Business Mayor
17-05-2025
- Science
- Business Mayor
Major US volcano predicted to erupt TOMORROW
Scientists have issued a stark warning about the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest, cautioning that it could erupt as soon as tomorrow. The Axial Seamount is a mile-wide underwater volcano that sits 300 miles off the coast of Oregon and more than 4,900 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. Researchers with the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative say there has been massive uptick in the number of earthquakes under the seamount, caused by magma pushing to the surface. According to William Wilcock, a professor and marine geophysicist at the University of Washington the seafloor has inflated to the level that it reached before the 2015 eruption. The swelling means that dangerously hot magma is building up beneath the surface. 'At the moment, there are a couple hundred earthquakes a day, but that's still a lot less than we saw before the previous eruption,' Wilcock explained. 'I would say it was going to erupt sometime later (this year) or early 2026, but it could be tomorrow, because it's completely unpredictable,' the marine geophysicist added. The Axial Seamount last erupted in 2015, triggering roughly 8,000 earthquakes, producing 400-foot-thick lava flows and causing the bottom of the ocean to sink nearly eight feet. The Axial Seamount is a mile-wide underwater volcano that sits 300 miles off the coast of Oregon and more than 4,900 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. One of Axial Seamounts many hydrothermal vents, which are part of a complex, sprawling network Scientists monitoring this volcano have detected a key sign that it is about to erupt: inflation of the seafloor. Pictured is the opening of the volcano The region has seen a sharp rise in the number of earthquakes in just the last month, with a major spike in activity recorded on April 13. Since May 6, the number of daily earthquakes under the seamount has been steadily rising. If Axial Seamount does blow within the next few days, it won't pose any threat human communities along the West Coast, experts say. It's too deep and too far from shore for people to even notice when it erupts, and it has no impact on seismic activity on land. However, the number of underwater quakes is expected to skyrocket during this event, rising from several hundred per day right now to 10,000 earthquakes within a 24-hour period as magma flows out of the seafloor volcano, according to Interesting Engineering. Mike Poland, a scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, expressed excitement about the eruption, highlighting Axial Seamount as one of the world's best-monitored submarine volcanoes. 'This particular volcano is probably the best-monitored submarine volcano in the world,' he told Cowboy State Daily. 'It's fascinating and doesn't really pose a hazard.' Seismic activity at the Axial Seamount has been growing exponentially, with hundreds of daily earthquakes now being reported – signaling a pending eruption Situated along the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a chain of undersea volcanoes extending between Oregon and Alaska, Axial Seamount is a young shield volcano – a broader volcano with a low profile. 'When Axial Seamount erupts, it'll look a lot like a Hawaiian lava flow eruption,' Poland said. 'It's not an explosive eruption, but calm effusions of lava flowing out of the caldera and across the seafloor.' Scientists warned last year that Axial Seamount was going to erupt by the end of 2025. 'Because it's had these three eruptions in the last 30 years, that's why we call it the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest, because most of the ones on land aren't active that frequently, and they spend a lot of their time slumbering, whereas Axial has a pretty active magma supply,' Chadwick told local CBS affiliate KOIN 6 News. 'So, if it's not erupting, it's inflating and getting ready for the next one. And so that's why we're kind of monitoring what's happening to it all the time.' Eruptions from Axial Seamount were recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and the volcano has undoubtedly erupted numerous times prior to those events, according to Poland. In November 2024, Oregon State University geophysicist William Chadwick started investigating the volcano when he noticed its surface had swelled to nearly the same height it reached before its last eruption 10 years ago. The swelling that occurred prior to the 2015 eruption allowed Chadwick and his colleagues to predict that event. This massive underwater volcano sits 300 miles off the coast of Oregon and more than 4,900 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean This time, their observations told them that Axial Seamount would erupt before the end of 2025. 'Based on the current trends, and the assumption that Axial will be primed to erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold, our current eruption forecast window is between now (July 2024) and the end of 2025,' the researchers reported. They also found that seismic activity at Axial Seamount had increased, with hundreds of earthquakes generated around the volcano per day and earthquake swarms greater than 500 per day. Frequent, small earthquakes like these can signal that magma locked beneath the ocean floor is creeping closer to the surface. The team shared their findings at the annual American Geophysical Union conference in December 2024. Wilcock noted that the first sign that an eruption from this volcano is imminent would be a sharp increase in the number of earthquakes around it – which the area is now experiencing. 'That period lasts about an hour, and then the magma reaches the surface,' Wilcock said in a statement last month. After that, 'the seismic activity dies down pretty quickly over the next few days, but the eruption will continue slowly for about a month,' he added. This impending eruption will be a major research opportunity for Wilcock and other scientists, who plan to use a suite of high-tech instruments to monitor the eruption from start to finish. The University of Washington's College of the Environment hosts one of the largest underwater observatories in the world, comprised of networks of sensors along the seafloor and throughout the ocean waters. In November 2024, Oregon State University geophysicist William Chadwick started investigating the volcano when he noticed its surface had swelled to nearly the same height it reached before its last eruption 10 years ago The volcano is located off the coast of Oregon. Pictured is a quaint town in the state When Axial Seamount finally erupts, Wilcock and his colleagues will use this array to gather data and images of the event as it unfolds. Even though Axial is not a dangerous undersea volcano, the forecasting capabilities scientists have gained from studying it could help them predict eruptions from those that are. For example, in January 2022, an extremely powerful eruption of the Hunga underwater volcano in the Tonga archipelago in the southern Pacific Ocean triggered a tsunami that caused an estimated $90 billion in damages. This massive wave impacted California, Hawaii, and parts of Canada, Chile, Fiji, Japan, New Zealand, Mexico and Peru. The West Coast won't have to worry about Axial causing an event like that. But its eruption will provide an opportunity for scientists to learn more about how these powerful geological structures work – and now it could come at any time.
Daily Mail
09-05-2025
- Science
- Daily Mail
Major US volcano predicted to erupt TOMORROW
The most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest could erupt as soon as tomorrow, scientists warn. The Axial Seamount is a mile-wide underwater volcano that sits 300 miles off the coast of Oregon and more than 4,900 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. It last erupted in 2015, triggering roughly 8,000 earthquakes, producing 400-foot-thick lava flows and causing the bottom of the ocean to sink nearly eight feet. Now, researchers with the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative, say there's been another massive uptick in the number of earthquakes under the seamount - signaling a looming eruption. According to William Wilcock, a professor and marine geophysicist at the University of Washington, there have been hundreds of earthquakes in the last few days and the seafloor has already inflated to the level that it reached before the 2015 eruption. The swelling means that dangerously hot magma is building up beneath the surface. 'At the moment, there are a couple hundred earthquakes a day, but that's still a lot less than we saw before the previous eruption,' Wilcock explained. 'I would say it was going to erupt sometime later (this year) or early 2026, but it could be tomorrow, because it's completely unpredictable,' the marine geophysicist added. The region has seen a sharp rise in the number of earthquakes in just the last month, with a major spike in activity recorded on April 13. Since May 6, the number of daily earthquakes under the seamount has been steadily rising. If Axial Seamount does blow within the next few days, it won't pose any threat human communities along the West Coast, experts say. It's too deep and too far from shore for people to even notice when it erupts, and it has no impact on seismic activity on land. However, the number of underwater quakes is expected to skyrocket during this event, rising from several hundred per day right now to 10,000 earthquakes within a 24-hour period as magma flows out of the seafloor volcano, according to Interesting Engineering. Mike Poland, a scientist at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, expressed excitement about the eruption, highlighting Axial Seamount as one of the world's best-monitored submarine volcanoes. 'This particular volcano is probably the best-monitored submarine volcano in the world,' he told Cowboy State Daily. 'It's fascinating and doesn't really pose a hazard.' Situated along the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a chain of undersea volcanoes extending between Oregon and Alaska, Axial Seamount is a young shield volcano - a broader volcano with a low profile. 'When Axial Seamount erupts, it'll look a lot like a Hawaiian lava flow eruption,' Poland said. 'It's not an explosive eruption, but calm effusions of lava flowing out of the caldera and across the seafloor.' Scientists warned last year that Axial Seamount was going to erupt by the end of 2025. 'Because it's had these three eruptions in the last 30 years, that's why we call it the most active volcano in the Pacific Northwest, because most of the ones on land aren't active that frequently, and they spend a lot of their time slumbering, whereas Axial has a pretty active magma supply,' Chadwick told local CBS affiliate KOIN 6 News. 'So, if it's not erupting, it's inflating and getting ready for the next one. And so that's why we're kind of monitoring what's happening to it all the time.' Eruptions from Axial Seamount were recorded in 1998, 2011, and 2015, and the volcano has undoubtedly erupted numerous times prior to those events, according to Poland. In November 2024, Oregon State University geophysicist William Chadwick started investigating the volcano when he noticed its surface had swelled to nearly the same height it reached before its last eruption 10 years ago. The swelling that occurred prior to the 2015 eruption allowed Chadwick and his colleagues to predict that event. This time, their observations told them that Axial Seamount would erupt before the end of 2025. 'Based on the current trends, and the assumption that Axial will be primed to erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold, our current eruption forecast window is between now (July 2024) and the end of 2025,' the researchers reported. They also found that seismic activity at Axial Seamount had increased, with hundreds of earthquakes generated around the volcano per day and earthquake swarms greater than 500 per day. Frequent, small earthquakes like these can signal that magma locked beneath the ocean floor is creeping closer to the surface. The team shared their findings at the annual American Geophysical Union conference in December 2024. Wilcock noted that the first sign that an eruption from this volcano is imminent would be a sharp increase in the number of earthquakes around it - which the area is now experiencing. 'That period lasts about an hour, and then the magma reaches the surface,' Wilcock said in a statement last month. After that, 'the seismic activity dies down pretty quickly over the next few days, but the eruption will continue slowly for about a month,' he added. This impending eruption will be a major research opportunity for Wilcock and other scientists, who plan to use a suite of high-tech instruments to monitor the eruption from start to finish. The University of Washington's College of the Environment hosts one of the largest underwater observatories in the world, comprised of networks of sensors along the seafloor and throughout the ocean waters. When Axial Seamount finally erupts, Wilcock and his colleagues will use this array to gather data and images of the event as it unfolds. Even though Axial is not a dangerous undersea volcano, the forecasting capabilities scientists have gained from studying it could help them predict eruptions from those that are. For example, in January 2022, an extremely powerful eruption of the Hunga underwater volcano in the Tonga archipelago in the southern Pacific Ocean triggered a tsunami that caused an estimated $90 billion in damages. This massive wave impacted California, Hawaii, and parts of Canada, Chile, Fiji, Japan, New Zealand, Mexico and Peru. The West Coast won't have to worry about Axial causing an event like that. But its eruption will provide an opportunity for scientists to learn more about how these powerful geological structures work - and now it could come at any time.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Deep-sea volcano off Oregon is rumbling again, likely to erupt anytime soon
Deep below the Pacific, a restless seafloor volcano off Oregon is showing signs it may soon stir again. Axial Seamount, a submarine volcano located nearly a mile beneath the ocean surface, is flexing its geologic muscles. Perched on a hot spot along the Juan de Fuca Ridge, where the Pacific and Juan de Fuca tectonic plates are slowly pulling apart, the volcano is steadily inflating with magma, increasing the frequency of small earthquakes. Researchers with the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative, which operates the Regional Cabled Array at the University of Washington, say the uptick in seismic activity suggests an eruption may be near. 'At the moment, there are a couple hundred earthquakes a day, but that's still a lot less than we saw before the previous eruption,' said William Wilcock, a marine geophysicist at the University of Washington. While predicting the exact timing is tricky, Wilcock said an eruption could occur anytime between later this year and early 2026 — or even tomorrow. 'I would say it was going to erupt sometime later (this year) or early 2026, but it could be tomorrow, because it's completely unpredictable.' The researchers also said that the region could witness thousands of small-scale earthquakes as the volcano erupts underwater. In 2015, 10,000 earthquakes were recorded within 24 hours as magma flowed out of the seafloor volcano for a month, trailing about 25 miles (40 kilometers) underwater. Axial Seamount's magma chamber has collapsed several times over the years, leaving behind a deep, wide basin known as a caldera. Despite the extreme conditions, life flourishes here. Hydrothermal vents scattered across the caldera floor release mineral-rich fluids into the icy seawater, creating plumes teeming with microbes — a phenomenon scientists call 'snowblowers.' While past eruptions have wiped out the tiny creatures clustered around these vents, their return is surprisingly swift. Within just a few months, the ecosystem begins to regenerate. 'I think it's one of the biggest discoveries we've made,' said Kelley, a professor of marine geology and geophysics at the University of Washington, in a statement. 'Life thrives in these inhospitable environments, and volcanoes are probably one of the major sources of life in our oceans.' Marine life, she said, may feel the seismic shifting after the eruption, but the activity could go unnoticed by people on land. 'It's not a very explosive event. You won't see the ash clouds above water, anything like that,' Kelly said. 'It's like if you put a mile of seawater on top of Kilauea … you may see some fountaining, but that's it.' Researchers said that the eruptions are most likely to occur between January and April, as previous events in 1998, 2011, and 2015 took place during this period. Scientists suspect that seasonal gravitational shifts play a role as Earth moves farther from the sun during the early months of the year. The moon's pull on ocean tides causes regular changes in pressure along the seafloor, and when magma is already close to the surface, even minor stress variations can make a difference. High tides, in particular, seem to coincide with more frequent seismic activity near the caldera, possibly pushing the magma chamber past its breaking point. The observatory plans to publicly livestream the event the next time the volcano erupts.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
An underwater volcano off the coast of Oregon could erupt soon, scientists say
Sign up for CNN's Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more. Things are heating up hundreds of miles off the coast of Oregon, where a large undersea volcano is showing signs of impending eruption, scientists say. The volcano, known as Axial Seamount, is located nearly 1 mile (1.4 kilometers) underwater on a geological hot spot, where searing gushes of molten rock rise from Earth's mantle and into the crust. Hotspot volcanoes are common on the seafloor. But Axial Seamount also happens to be located on the Juan de Fuca Ridge — an area where two massive tectonic plates (the Pacific and the Juan de Fuca plates) are constantly spreading apart, causing a steady buildup of pressure beneath the planet's surface. The frequency of earthquakes has recently picked up dramatically as the volcano inflates with increasingly more magma, signaling an eruption could be near, according to researchers at the National Science Foundation's Ocean Observatories Initiative Regional Cabled Array, a facility operated by the University of Washington that monitors the activity of Axial Seamount. 'At the moment, there are a couple hundred earthquakes a day, but that's still a lot less than we saw before the previous eruption,' said William Wilcock, a marine geophysicist and professor at the University of Washington School of Oceanography who studies the volcano. 'I would say it was going to erupt sometime later (this year) or early 2026, but it could be tomorrow, because it's completely unpredictable,' he said. During the volcano's last eruption in April 2015, the team observed about 10,000 small-scale earthquakes in a 24-hour period, and the same can be expected for the next one, Wilcock said. Magma — molten rock beneath Earth's surface — oozed out of Axial Seamount for a month and trailed about 25 miles (40 kilometers) across the seafloor, he added. The magma chamber at the heart of the volcano has also collapsed several times in the past, creating a large crater called a caldera. There, sea life thrives off the mineral-rich gases that exit through hydrothermal vents, which are like underwater hot springs. Streams of hot fluid containing billions of microbes and clumps of waste billow up from cracks in the caldera's surface, creating white plumes called 'snowblowers.' During previous eruptions, the small plants and animals living on the hydrothermal vents were scorched by lava flows, but just three months later, their ecosystem was back and flourishing again, said Debbie Kelley, director of the Regional Cabled Array. 'I think it's one of the biggest discoveries we've made,' said Kelley, a professor of marine geology and geophysics at the University of Washington, in a statement. 'Life thrives in these inhospitable environments, and volcanoes are probably one of the major sources of life in our oceans.' While neighboring marine life such as fish, whales and octopuses may feel the heat and rumble of seismic shifting, they are unlikely to be harmed. And people on land probably won't notice the eruption at all, Kelley told CNN. 'It's not a very explosive event. You won't see the ash clouds above water, anything like that,' she said. 'It's like if you put a mile of seawater on top of Kilauea … you may see some fountaining, but that's it.' In fact, most of the planet's volcanic activity takes place within underwater spreading centers such as the Juan de Fuca Ridge, which experiences multiple, small volcanic eruptions each day, Kelley said. 'The magma's pretty close to the surface. It's about a mile beneath the surface, which is very shallow compared with a lot of land volcanoes, where it may be 8 miles (12.9 kilometers) deep,' Kelley said, adding that the viscosity, or thickness, of the magma can affect how much pressure builds up in the magma chamber. Like a thick tomato sauce cooking on the stove, air bubbles within high-viscosity magma rupture more dramatically than Axial Seamount's thinner, runnier magma. Luckily, the relative mildness of Axial Seamount makes it perfect for close human observation. The next time the volcano erupts, the observatory even plans to publicly livestream the event, which has never been done before, Kelley said. Observing an undersea volcanic eruption is no easy task. Scientists only directly witnessed one in action for the first time on April 29. In the Pacific Ocean, about 1,300 miles (2,092 kilometers) west of Costa Rica, researchers partnering with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, or WHOI, were on a routine submersible dive to collect data on the East Pacific Rise when they noticed the once-vibrant Tica vents were no longer teeming with sea life. Instead, the team found a charred 'tubeworm barbeque,' as WHOI Emeritus Research Scholar Dan Fornari put it. Flashes of orange lava leaked through the seafloor before hardening in the freezing water, indicating an eruption was taking place. 'It's quite a significant development,' Fornari said. 'It's a very understudied environment, because it's hard to reach and because we have to use clever technology to understand it. … At the heart of it, we are watching (the) ways in which this planet gets built, gets constructed by volcanism on the seafloor.' Unexpectedly, close observation of Axial Seamount has revealed the timing of its eruption isn't just about what's bubbling beneath the surface — it also has to do with what's above. All three of the most recent eruptions — in 1998, 2011 and 2015 — have occurred between January and April, the time of year when Earth is moving away from the sun. 'I don't think we fully understand why that is, but it may be related to the (gravitational) forces from the moon influencing the volcano,' Wilcock said. The moon orbits Earth each month, and its gravitational pull moves ocean tides up and down, causing pressure variations on the seafloor. As the volcano's magma chamber reaches critical mass, these pressure changes put more stress on the caldera, the crater of the volcano created by previous eruptions. The pressure of high tide also causes more frequent earthquakes, slowly stressing the chamber to its breaking point, Kelley said.
