A Japanese manga claims a natural disaster is imminent. Now, some tourists are cancelling their trips

RNZ News

19-05-2025

By
Mai Takiguchi
and
Chris Lau
, CNN
Foreign tourists gather at Kyoto station on 16 April 2025.
Photo:
PHILIP FONG
A Japanese comic book warns of a "real catastrophe". A psychic predicts mass destruction. A feng shui master urges people to stay away.
This might sound like the plot of a disaster movie but for Japan's tourism industry, a recent spate of so-called earthquake-related "predictions" like these has led to more superstitious travellers, particularly in East Asia, cancelling or delaying their holidays.
Seismologists have long warned that accurately predicting when an earthquake might strike is all but impossible. Japan is a country with a good track record of withstanding even powerful tremors and the prospect of a major quake is something its population lives with on a daily basis.
But the fear of a "big one", amplified by both soothsayers and social media, is prompting some travellers to get cold feet. And for many, it's a comic book that's scaring them away.
Published by manga artist Ryo Tatsuki in 1999,
The Future I Saw
warned of a major disaster in March 2011, a date which turned out to coincide with the cataclysmic quake that struck Japan's northern Tohoku region that month.
Her "complete version" released in 2021 claimed that the next big earthquake will hit this July.
At the same time, psychics from Japan and Hong Kong have shared similar warnings, triggering some unfounded panic online that has led to a flurry of cancelations of travel plans from destinations in the region.
CN Yuen, managing director of WWPKG, a travel agency based in Hong Kong, said bookings to Japan dropped by half during the Easter holiday and are expected to dip further in the coming two months.
The speculations have scared off mostly travellers from mainland China and Hong Kong, which are Japan's second- and fourth-largest sources of tourists, respectively. But the fear has also spread to other markets such as Thailand and Vietnam, where social media platforms are overflowing with posts and videos warning people to think twice before travelling to Japan.
Anxieties provoked by these prophecies have, according to Yuen, become "ingrained". He added that "people just say they want to hold off their trip for now".
Japan is no stranger to severe earthquakes. It lies on the Ring of Fire, an area of intense seismic and volcanic activity on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.
Fears of a "big one" have been mounting since the Japanese government warned in January that there was an 80 percent chance of a severe earthquake hitting the country's southern Nankai Trough within 30 years. Some seismologists have been critical of these warnings, questioning whether they can ever be accurate.
Tatsuki's work has a significant following in East Asia and her fans often believe she can accurately see future events in her dreams.
She draws a cartoon version of herself in the manga, where she shares visions she gleans from her slumbers with other characters. Some of these dreams turn out to bear close resemblance to real-life events.
Her 2011 quake prediction - or coincidence - made Tatsuki famous not just in Japan but also in other parts of Asia like Thailand and China. The comic book has sold 900,000 copies, according to its publisher. It has also been published in Chinese.
The cover of Japanese comic book, "The Future I Saw (Complete Version)".
Photo:
Mai Takiguchi / CNN
Fans believed she also predicted the deaths of Princess Diana and singer Freddie Mercury, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, however critics say her visions are too vague to be taken seriously.
The manga's cover bears the words "massive disaster in March, 2011", leading many to believe that she predicted the 9.0-magnitude earthquake more than a decade before it hit Tohoku.
The quake triggered a deadly tsunami that killed tens of thousands and crippled the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, resulting in the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.
In the latest edition,
The Future I Saw (Complete Version)
, Tatsuki warned that on 5 July this year, a crack will open up under the seabed between Japan and the Philippines, sending ashore waves three times as tall as those from the Tohoku earthquake.
The author was recently asked what she thought about the cancelled trips resulting from readers' interpretations of her book.
Japanese newspaper
Mainichi Shimbun
reported last week that while she viewed it "very positively" that interest in her work has made people more prepared for disasters, she urged them not to be "overly swayed" by her dreams and "act appropriately based on expert opinions".
She's not the only doomsayer. Chinese media has been reporting the predictions of a self-proclaimed Japanese psychic who suggested a massive earthquake would strike the densely populated Tokyo Bay Area on 26 April. Though the date passed without incident, the prediction triggered immense interest on Chinese social media.
Qi Xian Yu, a popular feng shui master and Hong Kong TV personality known as Master Seven, also urged people to stay away from Japan, starting in April.
Japan's Cabinet Office took to X earlier this month to explain that modern technology has yet to be able to accurately predict an earthquake.
Meanwhile Yoshihiro Murai, governor of Miyagi prefecture, which was hit hard during the 2011 quake, spoke out against the impact of superstitious beliefs on Japan's tourism.
"I believe it is a serious issue when the spread of highly unscientific rumours on social media had an effect on tourism," he said during a press conference.
Despite all the social media static, it's unclear whether the fearmongering is working - Japan remains a wildly popular destination.
Samantha Tang, from Hong Kong, is one of those who has shelved her trip to the country. Originally she planned to visit Wakayama, a beach destination about 80km south of Osaka, in August, but has gotten cold feet.
"Everyone says so much about an earthquake coming," said the 34-year-old yoga teacher, who says she has gone on vacation to Japan at least once a year since the end of the pandemic.
Another Hong Kong traveller, Oscar Chu, 36, who usually visits Japan multiple times per year, has changed his mind this year as well.
"It's best to avoid it. It's going to be really troublesome if an earthquake indeed happens," he said. He explained he wasn't too worried specifically about being in an earthquake but was wary of the ensuing travel chaos and flight disruptions.
Still, plenty of tourists are undeterred.
Japan has seen the number of visitors surge to a record-breaking 10.5 million in the first three months of 2025, according to the Japan National Tourism Organisation.
Meanwhile, 2.36 million mainland Chinese travellers visited Japan in the first quarter of this year, up 78 percent from last year, the tourism body said. During the same period, some 647,600 Hongkongers visited Japan, marking an overall 3.9 percent year-on-year growth.
And that's only tourists from East Asia. In March alone, 343,000 Americans visited Japan, along with 68,000 Canadians and 85,000 Australians.
Vic Shing from Hong Kong is among those who haven't changed their plans. Although he has heard about "the prophecy," he said he remained committed to his Japan vacation this year. He is visiting Tokyo and Osaka in June.
"Earthquake predictions have never been accurate," he said.
Even if one did hit, "Japan has encountered many massive earthquakes before. It shouldn't be too bad when it comes to disaster management," he added.
- CNN