Ron Dufficy and Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

News.com.au

a day ago

Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy is back from a spell and he's keen to launch into a $16 chance on Saturday.
Duff joins Racenet's Shayne O'Cass to bring you race-by-race tips and analysis for the 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens.
DUFF'S BEST BET
Race 7 No.9 JUJA KIBO
DUFF'S BEST VALUE
Race 10 No.4 BALKANS
SHAYNO'S BEST BET
Race 3 No.13 EVERLASTING STARS
SHAYNO'S BEST VALUE
Race 5 No.7 CONCORDIA WIND
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Ron Dufficy: A very even race. I am leaning at the price to BELLA KHADIJAH (1). She gets blinkers on third-up now. It was an easy win for her first-up on a Heavy track and wasn't far away in a harder race last start when she had a lot to do. BARBRAY (2) comes out of the Winx Guineas and a freshen-up. The wet form reads very good for him. NARBOLD (4) has been around the mark without winning of late and should be close up again. AMUSING (5), first run for Godolphin with Chris Waller, is not as well-weighted today but obviously won the lead-up but I think is short enough in the market.
Shayne O'Cass: Welcome back Duff! I'm with BARBRAY (2). He was a $240,000 Magic Millions Yearling. He is by the now reigning Champion Sire, Zoustar, with the great Merlene as his second-dam, Bold Promise his third. Back in class (and back home) after the Winx Guineas. He beat Malbork Castle by seven on a Heavy 9 at Goulburn. Trivia time; BELLA KHADIJAH (1) ran third to Switzerland on debut at $151!
Bella Khadijah salutes in the Doomben opener! @ChesterJag @RoblRacing pic.twitter.com/HhTyqmp10S
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 27, 2024
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Duff: Very keen on CONVERGENT (7) here. I think he is showing good talent in his only two starts. I loved the way he went to the line hard held in a recent trial and I think he has plenty more to offer. COLD BREW (5) is still raw and up in class but he is shooting for three straight wins and should stride across from the outside and run another good race. FORECASTER (2) is a good, tough, on-pace competitor who tries hard. Doesn't win often but is set to give a sight. And DENMAN STAR (1) is going well but is sneaking up in the weights now and some concern that his worst run was on a Heavy track.
Shayno: Same here for the same reason. CONVERGENT (7) could potentially go 2400m/3200m one day with his breeding. As for Saturday, 1400m will feel like a mile, but he's had two 1000m+ trials since his June 7 Midway second. BLUFF 'N' BLUSTER (15) is 18 starts 1-0-0 at Rosehill BUT is 9 starts 1-2-1 on Heavy ground. DENMAN STAR (1) 's jockey J-Mac has a 70 per cent win strike-rate for trainer Angela Davies.
Convergent wins on debut for Jim & Greg Lee with @Reganbayliss in the saddle ðŸ'° @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/cjExQDsMw5
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 25, 2025
• Freedmans targets fast start at Rosehill
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Duff: Matt Dunn again here in a Highway, Shayno. I think this unbeaten mare WITHOUT PARALLEL (5) has done a good job so far. She was pretty good first-up in fast time at Eagle Farm and has obvious upside. FIRST LANDING (2) is in great form for the new stable. Unproven at 1200m but he did win his only start on that Heavy track there at Newcastle and that form stacks up well. MARTINI MUMMA (3) was much better third-up and she had a few little excuses there as well so she fits in. BENGAL (1) has got a big weight but I think back to a softer track we might see something better from him.
Shayno: EVERLASTING STARS (13) is owned by RL Charley as in the Hall of Famer, Bob Charley. The third generation descendant of Momentaire, a crack 2yo in the late 80s, was a shade unlucky in her first Highway run here on July 5 then went out west to Warren and was most emphatic winning that 1200m Benchmark 66 on the Heavy 8. Former Godolphin galloper SHIPSHAPE (9) is back for his third straight Rosehill Highway having run two absolutely giant (from the back) fifths.
Jett Newman produces a beautiful ride on Without Parallel who beats the odds on favourite! ðŸ'° @mattydunnracing pic.twitter.com/Bppd5BjIP2
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 2, 2025
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Duff: TUILIERIES (7) is the best horse in the race, it is just a matter of whether she can handle a Heavy track. If they decide to run here, I think she has to be top pick. PIPPIE BEACH (2) is two-for-two on Heavy tracks and I have got no issue with her back in distance here. I think maybe she hasn't been running the 1800m of late and she's sure to be running on. LADY EXTREME (1) has a big weight to contend with but she is very genuine in all conditions and sure to give a good sight again. And SISTER DAAE (11) is a lightly-raced mare who is improving all the time. She finished off well last start and she is bred to like it wet.
Shayno: Concur with your TUILIERIES (7) assessment, Duff. This is easily doable for her; she just has to handle the heavy. SISTER DAAE (11) is third-up now, at home, off a good run followed by a very good run. Same thing with her; she's got to be able to get through this very heavy track. SUPER NORWEST (9) has raced over this same track and distance, three times for two wins (both Highways).
Tuileries bulldozes home and wins in dominant fashion at Randwick for @SnowdenRacing1! ðŸ'¥ pic.twitter.com/myBpEruiAQ
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) December 26, 2024
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Duff: I like one at odds here Shayno in CONCORDIA WIND (7). The two trials are solid. She won her maiden on a Heavy track last preparation and I am expecting a good finish fresh at good odds here. USEAPIN (2) turned in a solid effort winning there second-up last time and may have returned stronger this preparation. Just a few things have to go right from that draw. METAPHORICALLY (1) did it well winning last start and should get across from the sticky draw in a race that doesn't look too fast on paper. GRAND PRAIRIE (11) only won a midweek maiden last start but he looks a colt with a bit of quality about him who might have more to offer.
Shayno: Me too, again! CONCORDIA WIND (7) was the third top priced yearling at the 2023 HTBA Sale at $100,000 when she actually has a 'million dollar pedigree'. Consider this; she is by Justify out of a Redoute's Choice daughter of Stella Cadente. She's already won $122,825 in 7 starts. One win was here, one other was on a Heavy 8 at Gosford. ART'S ALIVE (4) has raced at this track and distance twice for a win and a third. She's come back really well, noting that her two thirds this preparation were both by under a neck between her and the winner(s).
Concordia Wind nabs @cwallerracing stablemate Little Jeanie on the line to take Race 3 at Rosehill. That's a double to @KPMcEvoy ✅✅ pic.twitter.com/iyesAX39Dy
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) November 13, 2024
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Duff: I like WELWAL (1). It is a month since having no luck at all there last start. I think he is beautifully weighted with the claim here and he will be hard to hold out in a small field which suits him. HIGHLIGHTS (4) did enough first-up. He usually lifts second-up and this distance suits him much better. He is the value runner here. PHEARSON (5) did an amazing job after doing a lot of work last start. He is a hard horse to catch but if he reproduces that, he is not out of it. HEADLEY GRANGE (3) is a tough bugger. He has returned well and he handles all conditions.
Shayno: PHEARSON (5) was more or less beaten by the wide gate in the Winter Challenge. Long story short but he was trapped out on a limb and went forward early; he was so brave to hold down fourth behind The Ingham winner, Robusto et al. Phearson has won a Festival Stakes at this track/trip and broke his maiden by three on a Heavy 9. French Derby and Golden Eagle participant WELWAL (1) has been running better races than it looks in his four starts.
Welwal at big odds! @KPMcEvoy and @cwallerracing combine to get the 5YO his first win in Australia. pic.twitter.com/ltgm0Eb36M
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) February 24, 2024
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Duff: This horse from Victoria – JUJA KIBO (9) – looks very, very promising. He ran very fast sectionals winning at Sandown last time and looks an import who can go further than this. CORMAC T (4) is hard fit. He likes it wet, it is the right time to try a set of blinkers on him, and he could surprise at odds. CAPTAIN MAVERICK (10) is working up to another win. The map appears kind to him here so he could be amongst the chances. CANBERRA LEGEND (3) is hard to trust bit it was a much better run there second-up and he does drop in class.
Shayno: For better or for worse, I'm an AGITA (13) man and have been from his debut on the Kensington track on August 2 (that is Saturday's date minus two years). This David Payne-trained son of Cox Plate winner Adelaide has won on a Heavy 8 at Warwick Farm and he'll be third-up at his rightful trip off two decent mile runs.
� Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden �
🥇 Juja Kibo
🥈 Mythical Rock
🥉 Radar Ahead pic.twitter.com/pjZ2uWvTPt
— Horse Racing Ireland (@HRIRacing) June 24, 2024
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Duff: I think back to a Heavy track, LIBERTY STATE (9) can improve. She was terrific winning first-up at Rosehill on the Heavy. Two runs on firmer tracks have been okay so I just feel now that she gets the Heavy track again that she can lift. CAPTAIN FURAI (7) looked very good in his first preparation, all on wet tracks. Three runs on dry last prep were just fair but I am gambling that he might be a wet-tracker and thus hard to beat. CLIMB THE LADDER (14) has had three trials which should have him ready to go. Although untried in the wet, he is a huge yard and market watch. And JUST IN TIME (12) has been dominant for the new stable, winning the past two. Harder race now but hard to knock a winner.
Shayno: CAPTAIN FURAI (7) has three wins from seven career starts which is honourable enough by itself. Given what to expect on Saturday, it is worth keeping in mind that the Chris Waller-trained gelding has two wins and a second from his only three starts on Heavy. Had a couple of 'Waller trials' to get him ready for this. LIBERTY STATE (9) has a noble strike-rate of four wins and two seconds from 12 starts. One of those wins was here at Rosehill over 1200m on a Heavy 8 from barrier 13 of 14 and way back on the turn as you say.
Liberty State returns after a spell with a big win in the last at Rosehill, and that's a double to @djgibbons22! 🥳 @HawkesRacing | @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/gJDKGLq5Lb
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) May 31, 2025
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Duff: The gelding seemed to do the trick with YOSHINOBU (12). I thought he was very good winning first-up and although up in grade, the light weight suits him and he is capable of going on with the job. BUNKER HUT (9); it is a month since an acceptable run first-up. He maps well from the draw and he is very genuine. WAR ETERNAL (3) is a good speck at odds here. He likes it wet and is another one who usually lifts there second-up as a rule. Although I wish it was a touch further but you can't let him go at the price. And GERIATRIX (7) is another huge watch here. He has been gelded, second prep for Chris Waller, and he had good New Zealand form before arriving in Australia.
Shayno: Just for what it is worth, I am expecting bigger and better things this preparation from the former Kiwi resident GERIATRIX (7) than what we saw from him in his brief and underwhelming Xmas campaign. He had a fine record back in NZ when Lance O'Sullivan had him. Seems to handle the wet, but how wet? ASTERO (5) 's numbers tell it better than words can; 11 starts at Rosehill for 2-2-2, 13 starts at the trip for 3-1-3 and best of all; 10 starts on Heavy for 3-2-1. Happy 50th start Astero!
Yoshinobu strikes first up at Rosehill with a strong performance! ðŸ'° @tomo_sherry @ANeashamRacing @OTIRacing @aus_turf_club pic.twitter.com/9jpltW05SP
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) July 19, 2025
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Duff: I think BALKANS (4) is good odds. He was very good in three runs for the new stable last prep. Nice trial leading in and I think he will be hard to hold out if he can handle the going. ROSELYN'S STAR (7) is off a long break but is a fast horse who looks tuned up with a handful of trials so he looks fancied. SPYWIRE (3) is third-up now, no luck start, and although untried on the Heavy, he is primed. FIRST PERSON (13) is a good longshot. Disappointed last start but went back to trials and looked good and has great Heavy form.
Shayno: ROSELYN'S STAR (7) is one of the horses with the most promise, upside is the word they usually use. This third generation descendant of Blue Diamond winner True Jewels went '212' at his first preparation; the seconds were to Gatsby's and Espionage and the win was a big one over Perspiration. Trials? Three of them, all wins. HANAU (5) will have his first start for Mark Minervini here. Last start winner beating a next start winner. CATCH THE GLORY (8) and BALKANS (4) are among the many other chances.