5 reasons not to read much in Trump's ‘very severe consequences' warning for Putin

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2 days ago

While US President Donald Trump warns his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, of severe consequences, here are five reasons why the threat holds no substance ahead of the Alaska talks
While speaking to the reporters on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump warned that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, would face ' very severe consequences' if he did not agree to a ceasefire in the Ukraine war at the Alaska Summit on Friday.
Trump's remarks on the matter came after he held talks with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with other European leaders. While Trump's latest warning against Putin drew significant attention ahead of the Alaska summit, many wonder if the threat holds any substance.
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While speaking to the reporters on Wednesday, Trump also suggested that if his meeting with Putin goes well, he will organise a second summit, which would include Zelenskyy as well. 'If the first one goes OK, we'll have a quick second one,' Trump told reporters in Washington. 'I would like to do it almost immediately, and we'll have a quick second meeting between President Putin, President Zelenskyy and me, if they'd like to have me there.'
Trump will be meeting Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. The summit will reportedly be held at the Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson, a military facility crucial to countering the Soviet Union during the height of the Cold War. Here are 5 reasons why Trump's threat might fizzle out.
'Feel-out' session
Ahead of the talks in Alaska, Trump's White House has already lowered expectations for any breakthrough from the meeting. In the run-up to the meeting, the Trump administration often used terms like 'listening session' and ' feel-out meeting' to describe the planned discussion about the war in Ukraine.
Even Trump himself has indicated that the Friday summit in Alaska is not meant to be one that ultimately brings an end to the Ukraine war, which has been raging on for three years.
'There's a very good chance that we're going to have a second meeting that will be more productive than the first,' Trump said Wednesday. 'Because the first is I'm going to find out where we are and what we're doing.' Meanwhile, the White House has also steered clear of making any firm commitments about what will come out of Friday's gathering in Anchorage.
'This is a listening exercise for this president,' Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday. 'Look, only one party that's involved in this war is going to be present. And so this is for the president to go and to get, again, a firmer and better understanding of how we can hopefully bring this war to an end.' Hence, Russia poses no immediate threat to the Trump administration after the Friday meeting.
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TACO?
There has been a peculiar term going around on social media describing Trump's frequently shifting stance. The term is called ' TACO', and it is not about the famous Mexican food. The full form of the term is 'Trump Always Chickens Out'.
Before the Alaska meeting was announced, on July 28, Trump set a new deadline of '10 or 12 days' for Russia to reach a peace deal in its war on Ukraine. The American leader warned that if Russia failed to do so, it would face tough new sanctions and tariffs. Interestingly, Trump's warning came as he shortened a 50-day deadline he had set this month.
However, the deadline is long gone, and the US did nothing to Russia. Instead, the Trump administration unleashed wrath on India by imposing nearly 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods. Trump went on to threaten secondary sanctions on India for purchasing Russian oil.
While speaking to _Firstpost_ earlier this week, Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton called out the president's duplicity of standards. 'Another 25 per cent imposed on Indian exports to the US because of the purchase of Russian oil and gas. Yet at the same time, within days, Trump was agreeing to a summit meeting with Putin in Alaska this coming Friday and not proceeding with his threat to impose tariffs on Russia or put further sanctions on Russia,' Bolton told Firstpost on Tuesday.
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'During all this time, no sanctions were imposed on China for its even larger purchases of Russian oil and gas. So I think it's just typical of the confusion in the way Trump does business. But it's going to cause, I think, severe difficulties between the US and India at a time when we should be doing exactly the opposite,' he said.
The former US ambassador to the UN pointed out how Russia was not harmed by any of Trump's initiatives. When asked about Trump's reluctance to hold trade talks with India until it stops purchasing oil from Russia, Bolton emphasised that the whole thing is 'self-defeating'. He said, 'It is indicative of Trump's inability to prioritise among competing objectives.'
'He hoped that this [secondary sanctions] would affect the negotiations that will take place in Alaska this Friday. But the fact is, it hasn't hurt Russia at all. India still buys oil from Russia. So tariffs hurt India, but don't hurt Russia.'
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'The secondary tariff is not as effective as dealing with Russia directly, but I'm not sure anybody in the White House has explained that to Trump,' he added.
Already pushing for a second summit
Even before the Alaska summit, Trump is already preparing for a second summit. Part of the reason the Potus is pushing for a second summit is that this one won't involve Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine and several European leaders have already made it clear that a peace deal cannot be signed without Ukraine's say in it.
Earlier this month, there were reports that the Trump administration was pushing for Zelesnkyy's inclusion in the Alaska meeting. However, the Kremlin insisted that the meeting should be kept bilateral.
Putin said that he was not ready to meet his Ukrainian counterpart even as the Kremlin claimed preparations were underway for a set-piece bilateral summit with Donald Trump next week. 'I have nothing against it in general; it is possible, but certain conditions must be created for this,' the Russian leader averred when asked about the meeting with Zelenskyy. 'But unfortunately, we are still far from creating such conditions," he added.
Trump ultimately bowed down to Putin's wishes and said that he is willing to talk to him at first without Zelenskyy. While speaking to the reporters in the Oval Office on the same day of the Kremlin's request, Trump said Putin did not have to meet with Zelenskyy first before the US and Russian presidents could meet. 'No, he doesn't,' Trump said. 'They would like to meet with me, and I'll do whatever I can to stop the killing.'
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It might come as reassurance to Zelenskyy and European leaders
Trump's warning against Putin came after his phone call with Zelenskyy and European leaders. In the impromptu call, US Vice President JD Vance was also in attendance. Trump said that he had a 'very good call' with European leaders in which he consulted them about the general goal and strategy for his summit. He told reporters that he gave reassurances to the European leader that a ceasefire was his priority and he would not make any territorial concessions without Kyiv's full involvement.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Trump's approach at the video conference appeared to reassure some of the leaders, who were making a final collective plea to the unpredictable US president that he had a duty to protect Ukraine's sovereignty – and European security – at the talks.
Hence, Trump's remarks after the call can be seen as just his way to assure Zelenskyy and European leaders without any anger directed towards Putin.
Putin has his cards to play
While we contemplate Trump's strategies for the Alaska meeting, the key piece of the puzzle is what Russian President Vladimir Putin brings to the table. 'Well, for most of the first six months, what Trump was trying to do was use what he thought was his friendship with Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine. Now I'll just tell you from my own experience,' Ambassador Bolton told Firstpost.
'Putin doesn't see Trump as his friend. He sees them as somebody that he thinks he can manipulate in true, true fashion of a former KGB agent. And I think he's been pretty successful with it. But at some point toward the end of the first six months, whether intentionally or unintentionally, I think Putin pushed Trump a little too far, and Trump concluded that Putin wasn't interested in a ceasefire.'
'That's what angered him. He threatened tariffs on Russian exports to the US and secondary sanctions or tariffs on countries that were buying Russian oil and gas. So all of these issues with the secondary sanctions have arisen within the past 30 or 45 days,' he explained.
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Bolton emphasised that the Russian president had already won with the meeting in Alaska. 'Well, I think Putin has seen the playbook, so it wouldn't surprise me if he came with a big plaque that said 'Here's my letter of nomination [Nobel Peace Prize] for you.' I think what Putin really wants to do is use his KGB training and try to get Trump back under his influence,' Bolton said.
'I do think he recognises he pushed Trump too far. Maybe he did it intentionally, maybe unintentionally. I don't know. It is a big win for Putin to come to the United States. He's a pariah leader of a rogue state that committed unprovoked aggression against Ukraine.'
'On Friday, he's going to get to stand next to the President of the United States and get his picture taken on territory that used to be Russian. Nobody in Russia has missed the fact that we bought Alaska from Russia in 1867. So it's what Trump can do. I think a lot of people are going to be watching. But the main thing is to see if Putin emerges with Trump thinking that they're friends again,' Ambassador Bolton concluded. Hence, all five reasons point to the fact that Trump's latest threat against Putin might not be of much substance.
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