March Madness: Florida vs. Houston odds, picks and predictions
After winning the West Region, Florida took care of the Auburn Tigers in Saturday's semifinal 79-73, covering as a 2-point favorite as the Under (158) cashed. It was the second victory and cover of the season against the SEC rival Tigers.
The Gators shot 47.2% (25 of 53) from the field, while hitting 38.1% (8 of 21) from behind the 3-point line. It wasn't all great for Florida, as it hit just 70.0% (21 of 30) from the free-throw line, and it turned the ball over 16 times. Luckily for Florida, Auburn was just 69.6% (16 of 23) from the charity stripe, and an abysmal 28.0% (7 of 25) from downtown. Florida outrebounded Auburn at a 39-30 margin, too.
Gators G Walter Clayton Jr. led the way with 34 points, including 5 triples, while going 7-of-7 from the free-throw line. G Alijah Martin, who missed the first game at Auburn due to a hip pointer, went for 17 points in his second Final 4 game. He appeared in the Final 4 with the FAU Owls in 2023.
Houston, champions of the Midwest Region, stunned Duke 70-67 Saturday. The Cougars were down 14 points to the Blue Devils with 8 minutes to go, but Houston chipped away at that lead, using timely offense and suffocating defense to get into position for its first national title game appearance since 1983.
The Cougars are 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in 5 NCAA Tournament games, and 5-1-1 ATS in the past 7 outings. The Under is 5-1-1 in the 7-game span, too.
Houston faced 3 SEC teams this season, losing to the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn in neutral floor games in the regular season, before ousting the Tennessee Volunteers 69-50 in the Elite 8, punching its ticket to San Antonio.
In the win over Duke, G L.J. Cryer led the way with 26 points on 8-of-14 shooting, including 6 of 9 from behind the 3-point line. The Cougars were a very impressive 45.5% (10 of 22) from downtown as a team, and UH turned it over just 9 times. Houston was plus-11 on rebounds, too.
Houston is No. 2 and Florida is No. 3 in the USA TODAY Sports Men's Basketball Coaches Poll.
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Florida vs. Houston odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:18 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Florida -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Houston –110 (bet $110 to $100)
: Florida -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Houston –110 (bet $110 to $100) Against the spread : Florida -1.5 (+100) | Houston +1.5 (-120)
: Florida -1.5 (+100) | Houston +1.5 (-120) Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Florida vs. Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Florida 71, Houston 66
Florida (-110) is cheap on the moneyline, but it makes little sense to back the Gators straight up unless you feel it will win, but only by a single point.
AVOID, and look to the spread instead.
FLORIDA -1.5 (+100) is the play if you like the Gators to get the victory Monday.
The Gators have managed just a 2-3 ATS mark in 5 NCAA Tournament games, which might make this look like a bit of a risk. However, as a favorite of 5.5 or fewer points this season, Florida is perfect — 7-0 ATS.
The Cougars are playing in the state of Texas, so perhaps the defensive-minded Houston side will have a little bit of a bump there.
However, the Cougars just aren't nearly as deep as the Gators, who should be able to solve the defense of UH to hoist their third national championship on the hardwood.
UNDER 141.5 (-115) is worth a look, but be careful.
The Over cashed in 11 straight games for Florida from Feb. 25 to March 29, including the final 4 regular-season games, all 3 SEC Tournament battles and the first 4 NCAA Tournament outings before the Under cashed against Auburn in Saturday's semifinal.
The Under is 5-1-1 in the past 7 games for Houston, as the nation's top defensive team (58.5 PPG) has allowed 68 or fewer points in 17 of the past 18 games. In fact, UH allowed just 67 points to Duke on Saturday, the second-lowest offensive production for the high-flying Blue Devils.
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