Hurricane Erin tracker: Storm strengthens to Category 4, see projected path of 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 season
Erin has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane as of Saturday. It's the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, which officially formed mid-Friday morning. Some Tropical Storm watches remain in effect for parts of the northern Leeward Islands, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is rapidly intensifying. The NHC said rough surf conditions from the storm could impact states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda, early next week.
Where is Hurricane Erin, and what is its path?
As of 8 a.m. ET Saturday:
Erin was located 120 miles northeast of Anguilla.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.
It is moving west-northwest at 20 mph.
The storm is expected to continue to move west-northwest through the weekend, gradually decreasing in speed. Early next week, the storm is expected to turn toward the north.
Starting today into Sunday, the outer bands of Erin are expected to bring areas of heavy rainfall across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals could range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in isolated areas, which could lead to flash or urban flooding and cause mudslides and landslides, the hurricane center said Saturday.
"Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend, the NHC said. "These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents."
What are the chances it will intensify?
Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday.
"Continued rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend," forecasters said.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place
As of 8 a.m. ET Saturday, these are the following advisories in place, according to the NHC:
Tropical storm watches are in effect for:
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Sint Maarten
Forecasters added that, "A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours."
The NHC advised that the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should continue to monitor forecasts of Erin.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been six so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
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Hurricane Erin is expected to turn away from the United States but is likely to bring a dangerous threat in the coming days: rip currents along the East Coast of the United States and Canada, as well as Bermuda and the Bahamas. The life-threatening risks of rip currents were highlighted last month, when Malcolm-Jamal Warner, the actor who rose to fame as a teenager playing Theo Huxtable on 'The Cosby Show' in the mid-1980s, drowned while swimming at a beach on the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica. He was swept away by a rip current, channels of water that flow away from the shore and can drag people along. The National Weather Service has warned that Erin could produce 'life-threatening surf and rip currents, and local authorities have issued warnings for swimmers this week in areas affected by Erin. Rip currents, even from distant storms, are the third-highest cause of death related to hurricanes. At least three dozen people in the United States have drowned in the surf so far this summer, most of them caught in rip currents, according to the National Weather Service, which tracks surf-zone deaths across the country. One swimmer died and four others were rescued from the waters off Seaside Heights, N.J., after they became caught in a rip current on Aug. 11, when lifeguards were off-duty, the authorities said. Earlier in July, Chase Childers, a former minor league baseball player, died after rushing into the surf in Pawleys Island, S.C., to save swimmers in a rip current, the police said. Fatalities do not just occur in oceans. In the Great Lakes region, rip currents caused an average of 50 drownings per year from 2010 to 2017, Chris Houser, the dean of science at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, said. Can you see a calm strip of water cutting through the waves? Rip currents occur when water flows away from the beach through a narrow channel that has been created by an underwater feature or a sandbar. They are easiest to see from an elevated position like a beach access point, and are harder to spot when a person is closer to the water. From land, a rip current can appear relatively calm on the surface, as a strip of water that extends out from the beach between breaking waves. Its appearance can be deceiving, because the forceful flow of water away from the shore can sweep a swimmer far into the body of water. The current can also appear as a patch of darker water stretching away from the beach, or as a distinct offshore flow. Rip currents are swift and unrelenting. They can move at speeds of up to eight feet per second, which is faster than the pace of an Olympic swimmer. But drownings often happen with far weaker currents, said Gregory Dusek, a senior scientist with the Ocean Service at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 'It doesn't have to be moving that fast to cause a problem,' Mr. Dusek said. 'It just needs to be pulling you enough to get you from where you can touch to where you can't.' The currents can occur at any time and in any conditions, but they are most dangerous when waves are two to three feet high, Mr. Dusek added. There is also added risk in late summer, when tropical storm systems and hurricanes can move through a region and prompt strong waves, even on clear, sunny days. 'You can have a storm far away driving pretty large waves, and you can have strong rip currents where you are, even when the weather seems fine,' Mr. Dusek said. Check the surf forecast at your beach. NOAA maintains beach weather forecasts for several popular destinations, which contain information about rip currents and waves, at Surf zone forecasts also assess the low, moderate or high risks of rip currents associated with your destination beach. Some lists of safety tips from government agencies also state the obvious for people dipping into the surf: Make sure you know how to swim. Read signs and avoid swimming near piers. Try to swim at a beach that is under the watch of lifeguards, and ask them about the conditions before you enter the water. Comply with their orders, and read and follow instructions from official posted signs. Do not swim alone or within 100 feet of piers and jetties, because rip currents flourish alongside them, NOAA recommends. Families with children should swim near a lifeguard if there is one. It also helps if children bring something that floats into the water with them, such as a boogie board, a surfboard or a lifejacket, all of which can help weaker swimmers navigate a rip current. Hopefully, you will never need the advice in the next section. Don't fight the rip current. Many people panic when they get pulled into a rip current, which leads them to waste energy and make irrational decisions, Mr. Dusek said. If you find yourself carried off by a rip current, try to relax and evaluate your surroundings. Remember that a rip current will not pull you under, he said. And don't try to swim against it. Not every rip current is the same, and you may use different strategies depending on the water's movement and your swimming abilities, Mr. Dusek said. It is possible that the current itself will circulate back to shore. If so, float. The rip current is generally narrow, so try to escape it through its side, rather than head-on. Strong swimmers should move in a direction that follows along the shoreline, or swim toward breaking waves and then at an angle toward the beach, he said. 'If you don't think you can do that, or you feel like you're swimming anywhere in particular, you want to just float and wave your hands and call for help,' Mr. Dusek said. It's important to stay above the water and avoid exhausting yourself to give time for a lifeguard to reach you or for someone on the shore to call 911. To do so, you can also embrace the 'flip, float, follow' strategy, which involves flipping on your back to float above water and following the current until it takes you past breaking waves or back to shore. How to help someone stuck in a current. Rip current drownings often occur when bystanders wade into dangerous conditions to help another person. To assist someone safely, you can help direct them to swim parallel to the shore or flip on their back to float. If you are near someone stuck in a rip current, alert a lifeguard. If there is no lifeguard on duty, call 911. Even if the person escapes the rip current, they may still need lifesaving support, Mr. Dusek said. For swimmers who are pulled by the current closer to the shore, give them something that floats to hold onto, such as a boogie board or a cooler. If you feel like the only option is to enter the water — and you're a strong swimmer — it's important to still bring a flotation device, Mr. Dusek said. Jenny Gross contributed reporting.
