Emma Murphy: Israel and Iran are fighting for political survival
For months now, speculation has been growing that Israel would strike Iran.
'Imminent,' the much overused word to suggest attacks in weeks, days or hours - in the early hours they came.
I understand the UK first got intelligence that something significant was being planned a couple of months back, but the intel was said to be 'woolly'. Only in the last few weeks has it become slightly clearer.
In some British government quarters, the more strained relationship with the US is blamed for a lack of clarity.
In the last few days, concern had been rising that with Israel emboldened, the attack would be of scale. The actual scale and the timing were not what the British government was expecting, even as late as Thursday, and I'm told there was no prior notice of what had taken place.
It's still unclear how much the United States knew of the actual details and timing.
What has unfolded is likely to have governments around the world questioning just what this means for global stability and finance.
In Iran, the questioning will be more existential.
The Iranian regime has a reputation for strategic patience, though now it may not have such luxury. Fundamentally, they want to stay alive and stay in power. What they do next will be with those goals in mind.
They have seen the wrecking ball with which Israel hit their great ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing its leadership, tearing through its ranks, resources and stockpiles, and it serves as a warning.
But the regime is stronger than Hezbollah, and given the size of Iran, it will be more difficult to degrade its stockpiles of ballistic missiles, which can reach Israel in minutes. They are thought to hold vast reserves. Will this be the moment they decide to use swathes of their arsenal? Will that be enough to deter further strikes by Israel, likely with the US by their side? It is a huge gamble.
But it is a huge gamble too by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and represents the act of a leader who feels emboldened. Politically, he is also under threat and taking on Iran without the cast-iron support of the US is new and lethal territory. Let's not forget Iran has had plenty of time to prepare for this.
If he has not done enough to finish his great foe, he risks taking the region and the world into another of those Middle Eastern wars that Donald Trump was so adamant to stop.
In fighting for survival, they are fighting to the death.
As a security source told me, 'What comes next, soon, will not be pretty.'
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