Socialist Candidate on Track to Force Ecuador Leader into Runoff
(Bloomberg) -- Socialist challenger Luisa González did better than forecast in Ecuador's presidential election, likely forcing President Daniel Noboa into an April 13 runoff in the crisis-hit nation.
Nice Airport, If You Can Get to It: No Subway, No Highway, No Bridge
Sin puente y sin metro: el nuevo aeropuerto de Lima es una debacle
The Forgotten French Architect Who Rebuilt Marseille
In New Orleans, an Aging Dome Tries to Stay Super
Citadel to Leave Namesake Chicago Tower as Employees Relocate
With 85% of ballots tallied on Sunday night, investor favorite Noboa had 44.6% of votes while González had 43.8%. The head of Ecuador's electoral authority Diana Atamaint said the race will go to a second round if the trend in the count continues.
Leonidas Iza, from a party representing the nation's Indigenous communities, had 5%, meaning that his backing could be key for deciding a close runoff.
The result may disappoint investors who bid up the price of the nation's sovereign bonds in recent weeks in the belief that Noboa had a good chance of a first round victory.
Ecuador was close to total chaos when Noboa took over as interim president in 2023, and remains in deep trouble fourteen months later. The economy probably shrank for four straight quarters last year, and gang hitmen made January the country's bloodiest month on record according to police data obtained by local newspaper El Universo.
González, 47, a former lawmaker, called for a strong welfare state and more investment in public works programs. However, she is conservative on some social questions, and has spoken out against abortion, including for victims of rape. Investors are wary of her Citizen Revolution party since her mentor Rafael Correa defaulted on the nation's debt in 2008.
In the second round, González has an advantage over Noboa in the fight to win over Indigenous voters, said Gabriela Panchana, a political communications specialist.
'It's much easier for Correismo to reach an agreement with the Indigenous movement, which is much closer to its ideology,' Panchana said by phone from Guayaquil.
At the same time, fear of Ecuador ending up with a model similar to Venezuela's could drive a majority to rally around the incumbent, she added.
Noboa, 37, has pledged to persist with his war on the cartels, which saw him declare a state of emergency and send the army into the streets and into the gang-controlled prison system. The wealthy son of a banana-exporting family, he was one of only three Latin American presidents to attend Donald Trump's inauguration.
Bond Rally
Ecuador's benchmark dollar bonds have returned 102% since Noboa came to power as he used a boost in his popularity from a security crackdown to push through an increase in VAT and a phasing out gasoline subsidies, which helped paved the way for a $4 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund.
But his record was marred by untamed drug cartel violence that makes Ecuador one of Latin America's most dangerous nations, and months of blackouts that last year crippled business.
'It seems polls did not accurately capture voter discontent with Noboa, particularly in the areas where violence is acute,' on the Pacific Coast and in parts of Amazon, said Risa Grais-Targow, director for Latin America at Eurasia Group. 'He should still benefit from the power of the incumbency and some degree of anti-Correismo in a runoff, but it's looking like an extremely competitive vote.'
Correa, the most influential leader in Ecuador's recent history, remains a polarizing figure in the country of 18 million. He presided over a strong economy for much of his 2007-2017 presidency amid high oil prices, but became increasingly authoritarian and was eventually convicted in absentia on corruption charges. He now lives in Belgium and would be jailed if he returned to Ecuador.
Noboa came to power though snap elections in 2023 after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved congress to avoid impeachment. That election also went to a runoff between Noboa and González.
Ecuador's economy will expand 1.2% this year, the slowest pace in South America, according to the IMF.
The Reason Why This Super Bowl Has So Many Conspiracy Theories
Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback
Believing in Aliens Derailed This Internet Pioneer's Career. Now He's Facing Prison
Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies
Trump's Tariffs Make Currency Trading Cool Again After Years of Decline
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
15 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Moelis: 'Very Bullish' on Europe and Middle East
Don't be fooled by 'pessimistic' headlines - there are multiple reasons to remain 'optimistic' on the global business outlook says Ken Moelis, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Moelis & Company. He is expecting a surge in economic growth in Europe and the Middle East, and is particularly excited about the wave of educated Iranian talent who could be available for hire if tensions in the region calm down. Moelis spoke to Francine Lacqua on 'Bloomberg: The Pulse'. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump Eyes Little-Tested Tactic for Next Step in Spending Clash
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump's budget director is preparing to escalate the administration's fight over federal spending with a little-tested tactic to claw back money in the last days of the fiscal year. Bezos Wedding Draws Protests, Soul-Searching Over Tourism in Venice US Renters Face Storm of Rising Costs US State Budget Wounds Intensify From Trump, DOGE Policy Shifts Commuters Are Caught in Johannesburg's Taxi Feuds as Transit Lags The gambit — which relies on a brief clause in a 51-year-old law — is poised to trigger a showdown with Congress over the power of the purse, with implications for presidential power that extend well beyond the budgeting process. A 'pocket rescission,' as advocates have dubbed the move, is effectively a way to slash spending by giving Congress little time to act on proposed cuts. Russ Vought, head of the Office of Management and Budget, said an upcoming vote in the Senate on a $9.4-billion package of cuts will help determine whether Trump turns to this approach later this year for even deeper spending reductions. 'It is definitely an important test,' said Vought in an interview, referring to the Senate vote. 'We are watching carefully. It will inform our entire strategy.' If Trump can convince Republican skeptics to approve that package of cuts, he's likely to come back with even more cuts in August, said one person who helped craft the strategy. But if not, Trump could move straight to an even more aggressive option: A constitutional challenge to the law that requires him to seek congressional approval for spending cuts. The fault lines on the issue are likely to surface in a Wednesday Senate Appropriations Committee hearing, where Vought is set to testify. The committee's chair, Senator Susan Collins of Maine, has called pocket rescissions 'illegal.' Pocket rescissions take advantage of a gray area in the Impoundment Control Act. That law requires the president to spend money appropriated by Congress — unless he proposes specific line items to be cut. After 45 days, if Congress hasn't approved the president's proposed cuts, the funds must be spent. But, if the proposal comes in the last 45 days of the fiscal year, Vought argues, the authority to spend the money would expire before that 45-day clock runs out — essentially making the cuts permanent. Vought floated the tactic on the last full day of the first Trump administration, likening it to a president 'putting a bill in his pocket' while Congress is out of session — a reference to the constitutional pocket veto. Critics, however, say the move risks crossing a legal line. The Government Accountability Office, Congress's nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, warned in 2018 that end-of-year timing tactics violate the spirit of the law. But GAO opinions are not legally binding, and the agency once condoned a similar move by President Gerald Ford in 1976. And then there's the constitutional argument: The pocket rescission would act as a line-item veto, allowing the president to choose which congressionally mandated spending he approves of — something the Supreme Court struck down in 1998. Senate Skepticism That leads some critics to portray the tactic as an end run around basic constitutional protections. 'Anyone who looks at this story and sees it as a story about the fiscal question — how much we tax, how much we spend — is missing most of the story,' said Matthew Lawrence, a law professor at Emory University and former attorney at both the OMB and House Budget Committee. 'Because what the president is doing right now is using threats to spending in order to coerce entities like universities or law firms to do things that the president or even Congress couldn't constitutionally do on their own.' The president is already facing criticism from some lawmakers over other matters where they say the legislative branch's power has been usurped, including his decision to strike Iran's nuclear facilities without authorization from Congress. Vought allies say the pocket rescission is an ideal tool to slash Biden-era spending — though they don't expect it to become routine. They describe it as a 'just-in-case' maneuver if Congress blocks other rescissions. The person who has helped to craft the strategy described it as a series of ever-more-aggressive moves, each informed by how Congress and the courts react. First is the $9.4 billion rescission package now before the Senate. That proposal includes spending on foreign aid and public broadcasting agencies decimated by billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency initiative. The House narrowly ratified those cuts earlier this month, 218–214, but faces more skepticism in the Senate. If that passes, step two would likely be a pocket rescission proposal in August — using the 45-day clock to put more pressure on Congress to vote the package up or down. Finally, the most sweeping move would send a focused package of unilateral cuts to test constitutionality of the impoundment law itself — making good on a campaign promise to use every lever to cut spending. 'When I return to the White House, I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and, if necessary, get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it,' Trump said in a 2023 campaign video. If Trump has difficulty convincing Republican holdouts in the Senate to approve rescissions, he's more likely to move to the direct constitutional challenge, said the person familiar with the strategy. Even within Trump's own party, some lawmakers are bristling at the prospect of executive overreach. 'I think it's a bad idea,' said Representative Mike Simpson of Idaho, chairman of the Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee. If Congress has to swallow a spending bill as one all-or-nothing package, so does the president, he argued. Senator Mike Rounds of South Dakota echoed the concern: 'If we have authorized it and we have appropriated the money, they have to follow the law,' he told National Journal. 'If the law says finish it, if it is authorized and appropriated, they have a constitutional responsibility to execute the law faithfully.' Inside Gap's Last-Ditch, Tariff-Addled Turnaround Push Luxury Counterfeiters Keep Outsmarting the Makers of $10,000 Handbags Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won't Beat the Pros Is Mark Cuban the Loudmouth Billionaire that Democrats Need for 2028? Robotaxi's Underwhelming Texas Rollout ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Bloomberg
20 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Andrew Cuomo: Tonight Was Not Our Night
Andrew Cuomo concedes the New York City Democratic primary to his opponent Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old Democratic socialist. Mamdani won with 43.5% of the vote in the first round of ranked-choice voting, with Cuomo receiving 36.4%. Cuomo, the former governor of New York, spoke to supporters in Manhattan. (Source: Bloomberg)
