Republicans are sleepwalking into a midterm disaster. Wisconsin should be a wake-up call.
Donald Trump doesn't like losers. So one has to wonder what he is thinking after Elon Musk, his biggest political donor, fell flat on his face in an attempt to prop up a MAGA-backed candidate in this week's Wisconsin Supreme Court race.
While it's important not to overthink the results of an off-cycle election, Trump and Musk's embarrassing loss is a warning sign for Republicans ahead of next year's midterm elections.
It came at an unfortunate time, as Trump announced massive across-the-board tariffs that spooked Wall Street, leading to the biggest one-day loss since 2020. Two Florida Republicans also underperformed in special elections for House seats, raising concerns among Republicans about their narrow majority.
But Wisconsin was the clearest signal of the looming danger for Republicans.
Musk overplayed his hand. The tech tycoon and his super PAC poured tens of millions of dollars into the race, but all that money could not stop the growing pushback against Trump's trail of destruction. Despite Musk's efforts, voters elected state Circuit Judge Susan Crawford to the state's Supreme Court, maintaining the court's 4-3 liberal majority.
The victory wasn't easy. Trump beat former Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin by less than 1 point, making it the closest state race in the 2024 presidential election. Yet Crawford defeated Trump-endorsed Brad Schimel by 10 points.
Tuesday's election in Wisconsin is not the only sign that Republicans need to read the writing on the wall: Trump and Musk's DOGE tactics are toxic in the minds of voters. While GOP candidates won both special elections for two House seats in Florida, Democrats cut into the margin of victory in each race by double digits. By sticking with Trumpism and enabling an unelected billionaire, the Republican Party has exposed itself to a possible bloodbath during the 2026 midterms.
I know a thing or two about winning tough races. I served as chairman of the Republican National Committee during the 2010 midterms, when a 'Republican wave' changed the power dynamics in Washington and state capitals across the country. But 2010 didn't start out that way. It came about because of a concerted effort to take advantage of an incumbent president's missteps.
If I were a state Republican chairman looking at Tuesday's election results, here's what I would be thinking: First, voters are already sick and tired of all the chaos Musk has unleashed across America. Trump will be left to clean up the mess that Musk leaves behind on every aisle. Voters will blame the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers who didn't stand up to Musk. The Republican Party needs to understand this reality.
We're already seeing voters express their anger at town halls, and GOP leadership asking Republicans in Congress not to meet with their constituents doesn't help. Republican candidates are stuck with the Trump brand if they don't offer the electorate an alternative path.
That brings us to my second point: Republicans in tight House races must differentiate themselves from Trump. They can only do that if they're more concerned about what their voters want instead of what Trump thinks of them. However, since Republicans seek Trump's endorsement to win primaries, it becomes nearly impossible for them to distance themselves from his damaging policies.
It will take individual candidates who are not afraid to draw stark contrasts between their vision for American families and whatever politics Trump is playing. If they are successful, it creates a lane for a new generation of GOP candidates to rise above Trump's stranglehold on the party.
Lastly, Democrats have a role to play if they get out of their own way. Republicans have been masterful at defining the Democratic Party. It's now time for Democrats to define exactly what this Republican Party is. Voters are just starting to process the chaos, the mixed messages, the damage to institutions and the growing sense of insecurity surrounding Trump's second term. This can't be a missed opportunity. Democrats must find a straightforward narrative and make it stick. Drive it home every single day and don't give an inch.
The key to success is keeping it simple and standing with voters heading into the midterms next year. GOP communications veteran Doug Heye warned Democrats not to overplay their hand. This week on MSNBC, he said, 'Democrats don't need a wave. They just need a ripple, given how small the House majority is. Stay focused and say the smart things. Don't make overpredictions.'
The path forward for the pro-democracy movement will be a balancing act. Tuesday's elections underscored the weaknesses inside the Republican Party and how that weakness shows up at the ballot box. It's now up to Democrats to exploit those weaknesses and return power to the American people.
For more thought-provoking insights from Michael Steele, Alicia Menendez and Symone Sanders-Townsend, watch 'The Weekend' every Saturday and Sunday at 8 a.m. ET on MSNBC.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
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