What is Alabama football path to 2025 SEC championship? What metrics show
The Crimson Tide has the third-best FPI, the fourth-best chance to make the College Football Playoff and the third-best chance to win a national championship. And the odds are just as good for Alabama to secure its 35th SEC title.
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Alabama, per the FPI metrics, has a 17.2% chance of winning the SEC in 2025 behind Texas (34.1%) and Georgia (26.9%).
With the 10th-toughest schedule in college football, what could be Alabama's path to an SEC title? Here are three things Crimson Tide fans should watch out for based on ESPN's FPI rankings:
Alabama could enter SEC championship with two losses
Texas and Georgia, the two teams with the best chances of reaching the SEC championship game, are projected to finish the regular season — including a possible conference title game — with two losses.
The Bulldogs, which won the SEC championship in 2024, did so with regular-season losses to the Crimson Tide and Ole Miss.
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ESPN's FPI rankings project Alabama to finish the 2025 regular season with 2.8 losses, slightly more than the Longhorns (2.1) and Georgia (2.3).
SEC championship teams shouldn't be expected to arrive in Atlanta without a scratch.
Alabama at Georgia could be turning point in SEC championship race
Just like 2024, the storyline surrounding Alabama's opening SEC game against Georgia will likely be its SEC championship implications.
Head-to-head against the Bulldogs could play a big factor in who reaches the SEC title game.
And while both Alabama and Georgia each have long conference schedules after facing off — something the Crimson Tide knows well — the trajectory of each team in 2025 could be decided in Athens.
Alabama football month-long stretch may decide SEC championship hopes
Alabama vs. Georgia may put the Crimson Tide on its SEC championship trajectory. But one five-week stretch will definitively set Alabama's path toward or away from Atlanta.
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After starting its conference schedule at Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt and at Missouri, Alabama will face a four-game stretch against teams ranked in the top-16 in FPI: Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU and Oklahoma.
Even if Alabama falls to Georgia, or loses to Vanderbilt or Missouri, one single loss will not change the importance of the Crimson Tide's Oct. 18-to-Nov. 15 stretch, one that will define Alabama as either an SEC championship game favorite, or a team that is fighting for its College Football Playoff life.
Alabama football schedule 2025
Alabama at Florida State; Aug. 30, 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC, Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
Alabama vs Louisiana Monroe; Sept. 6, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama; 6:45 p.m., SEC Network
Alabama vs. Wisconsin; Sept. 13, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama; 11 a.m., ABC or ESPN
Alabama at Georgia; Sept. 27, Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt; Oct. 4, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Alabama at Missouri; Oct. 11, Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
Alabama vs. Tennessee; Oct. 18, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Alabama at South Carolina; Oct. 25, Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, South Carolina
Alabama vs. LSU; Nov. 8, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Alabama vs. Oklahoma; Nov. 15, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Alabama vs. Eastern Illinois; Nov. 22, Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Alabama at Auburn; Nov. 29, Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Alabama
Colin Gay covers Alabama football for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Reach him at cgay@gannett.com or follow him @_ColinGay on X, formerly known as Twitter.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football path to SEC championship according to ESPN FPI metrics
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