Republicans Get Worrying Update in Red State Senate Race
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Republicans have received a concerning update about the 2026 Senate election in Iowa as a major election forecaster has reclassified the race as more competitive.
Incumbent Senator Joni Ernst, who is running for a third term, recently sparked backlash from many Iowans after saying in response to concerns about potential Medicaid cuts, "Well, we are all going to die."
Newsweek has contacted Ernst's campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Iowa has shifted toward the GOP over the past decade, with President Donald Trump securing a 13-point victory in the state in 2024. However, one Democratic strategist told Newsweek that Ernst was making the race "more competitive every day," and the national party is eying the state as a potential flip.
Democrats are targeting GOP-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost, and North Carolina, which he won by 3 points. They're also defending seats in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan, but there are no other obvious flip opportunities for the party. So Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate in 2026 hinge on their ability to make competitive races in states Trump carried by double digits, such as Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.
Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, D.C., on April 30.
Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, D.C., on April 30.for 137 Ventures/Founders Fund/Jacob Helberg
What to Know
Election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball announced this week that it was reclassifying Iowa as a more competitive race, though Ernst is still favored to win reelection next November.
The election shifted from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" in the forecaster's latest Senate ratings.
In a report explaining the change, forecasters J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik wrote that Ernst would be running in a "more challenging environment than she faced in either of her previous two elections."
"In 2014, she won as part of a broader GOP wave—and she got help from a gaffe-prone opponent. Six years later, she won reelection as Trump was carrying Iowa by a strong margin (Ernst ran a little bit behind Trump)," they wrote. "It's possible that 2026 could be like 2018: Iowa did not have a Senate election that year, but Democrats did end up winning three of the state's four U.S House seats that year, and we suspect that if Iowa had had a Senate election, it likely at least would have been close."
Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link told Newsweek that Ernst was making the race more competitive "every day" despite Republicans' "substantial voter registration edge in the state."
"She ran as an outsider and in just two terms has become the consummate Washington insider, telling Iowans to essentially 'take what you get' from Washington," he said. "That's a very different candidate that was elected in 2014."
So far, Ernst has drawn two challengers on the Democratic side. Nathan Sage, a Marine Corps veteran who leads the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce, and Iowa state Representative J.D. Scholten—who almost unseated former U.S. Representative Steve King, a Republican, in a deeply conservative district in 2018. State Senator Zach Wahls is also speculated to be considering jumping into the Democratic primary.
A May poll showed Sage with an early lead against Ernst, though other surveys into the race have not been released.
Coleman and Kondik said Ernst's initial town hall remarks "did not really tempt us to immediately move off our Safe Republican rating for her race," but that her response to the backlash seemed to be "daring Democrats to make an effort in Iowa."
What People Are Saying
Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link told Newsweek: "We have three candidates who bring youth and energy to this race. For a Democrat to succeed, they need to listen to Iowans, particularly in rural Iowa, and bring a populist perspective that stands up for the average Iowan rather than the lobbyists and Washington insiders."
Rachel Paine Caufield, a professor and co-chair of Drake University's Department of Political Science, previously told Newsweek: "Democrats are energized. Iowa Democrats are frustrated and are really looking to mobilize to push back against Donald Trump and reclaim at least one house of Congress, so you might see renewed energy on the Democratic side."
Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Nathan Sage told local outlet The Gazette: "I'm out here trying to bring a little bit more of a voice of working-class individuals to Washington and fight for them to have a better life, instead of trying to survive every day. Trying to actually make Iowans thrive."
Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told The Hill in May: "It doesn't matter which radical Democrat gets nominated in their messy primary because Iowans are going to re-elect Senator Joni Ernst to keep fighting for them in 2026."
What Happens Next
Iowa's primary elections are scheduled for June 2, 2026, with the general election following on November 3.
It remains to be seen whether other candidates will announce runs, and as the race draws closer, further polling may indicate how competitive it will be.
Sabato's Crystal Ball also ranked Senate races in Ohio and Texas as "Likely Republican." Maine's Senate race was marked "Leans Republican," while races in Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina were toss-ups. Minnesota and New Hampshire's Senate races were classified as "Leans Democrat."
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